Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Any idea on how many days it has been since Logan measured 4”?  I know it’s well over 700

2/25/22

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

2/25/22

A day that will live in infamy.

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I think you care more about being a Debbie to be honest.

 

im not getting 10:1, we know that. But even on the warmer solutions we pound here at some point: I’m expecting 6-9” of heavy Phil.

[HoarfrostHubb]

716 days.  Wow

[Damage In Tolland]

33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It might be too warm higher elevations and inland during the event,  but most models are like mid 30s for us to start. This is where I’m leaning. Going to be very wet and pasty.

Where is wet vs powder demarcation? 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, mreaves said:

You can’t make that up lol. I’m a Debbie for giving my thoughts as I normally do for these parts, but the ICON at day 7 shows rain and we cancel the storm with his M.O.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Where is wet powder demarcation? 

You’ll be pasty to start. But overall I think closer to 128 is where it will be pasty for the most part. Maybe final few hours is like upper 20s in that area. 
 

I just have this nagging feeling here that I’ll waste a lot at like 33-34. 

[mattm4242]

[CoastalWx]

11” seems bullish for BOS.

[8611Blizz]

Some thoughts from the local tv mets.  The warm layers seem to be creeping into some forecasts for the coast.

[ineedsnow]

we take

Monday Night

Snow likely, mainly after 4am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 26. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Tuesday

Snow, mainly before 2pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 29. Northeast wind 7 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

11” seems bullish for BOS.

8-12”!

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dendrite said:

8-12”!

I’m such a Debbie.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Ukie nice hit pike SE, it’s late to party like cmc 

The overwhelming majority of 12z trends is colder and south . 3km nam seems to be warm outlier for now… 

here’s our map from last night.. I said 35% chance we’d move it south , looks like we will move it south a bit if current trends hold. 

[weathafella]

It's a bit odd to see NWS being the most bullish.  Uncle finally waking up but still with a hangover.

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

11” seems bullish for BOS.

Yeah I think my over/under there is about 7” at Logan but back bay may be more like 9-10”

[ROOSTA]

So you say there's a chance? 
This looks pretty accurate!  ******50%******* 

[dendrite]

Ukie with the Dan Patrick whiff up here

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I think my over/under there is about 7” at Logan but back bay may be more like 9-10”

I just want to 2F colder lol. I’ll wait in the euro to adjust from my 4-7 here. Maybe I’m low, but I’m not a fan of these BL temps for first half or so. 

[CoastalWx]

I do think just inland and even up to Medford/Somerville will do better by 2-3” maybe. 

[8611Blizz]

If I could bet on this storm I would hammer the under for this area if it was set at 9".  If I pull a 7" spot I would be thrilled this year.

[mahk_webstah]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Ukie with the Dan Patrick whiff up here

Gefs encouraging but euro will give us a sense of where this is headed.  Although still time to trend and tick more.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I just want to 2F colder lol. I’ll wait in the euro to adjust from my 4-7 here. Maybe I’m low, but I’m not a fan of these BL temps for first half or so. 

There’s still a good amount of difference in 925 temps between model guidance. GFS is a bit more marginal with like -2 or -3 at 925 but euro goes like -5 to -6 in the CCB. That’s going to be a difference of at least 4” during the meat of it imho. 
 

Also rates will decide a large portion of the CP’s fate. 

[bristolri_wx]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m such a Debbie.

 

[8611Blizz]

Timing also seems to vary with the locaL mets. Some show it still snowing at 7pm others say we have  flurries at 3pm and clear skies by 4pm? 

[bristolri_wx]

Wow 4-8” down here wouldn’t be terrible. I’ll take it. Better than the last three white rain storms we have had.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s still a good amount of difference in 925 temps between model guidance. GFS is a bit more marginal with like -2 or -3 at 925 but euro goes like -5 to -6 in the CCB. That’s going to be a difference of at least 4” during the meat of it imho. 
 

Also rates will decide a large portion of the CP’s fate. 

Euro is definitely colder. Hopefully it holds shortly.

[NotSureWeather]

Would almost expect to hit blizzard criteria somewhere.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, NotSureWeather said:

Would almost expect to hit blizzard criteria somewhere.

How sure?

[NotSureWeather]

It’s moving fast but someone is in for a pretty good 4-6 hour ride.