Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[Kitz Craver]

35 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

So in the last 12 hours for Southern New England ( Connecticut Rhode Island area ).... All the weather maps went from hmmmmm.... To .. Aaaaahhhhh.. to... OUCH

Par for course this winter. Lol

Yup, Reoccurring theme. At least this winter we have had some pretty pink clowns. I don’t think we could even muster a clown map last winter down here. 

[weatherwiz]

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So why not just discuss there then?  I mean it doesn’t matter either way obviously, but it goes both ways on that premise. 

That thread gets clogged up with enough crap, at least the crap can be reduced and contained elsewhere. We all know this thread will probably be 40 pages by Saturday...so at least it keeps the Feb thread 40 pages less...which that thread was 40 pages before February even began

[Snowcrazed71]

6 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Yup, Reoccurring theme. At least this winter we have had some pretty pink clowns. I don’t think we could even muster a clown map last winter down here. 

Lol... Last winter sucked ass. But this winter is not far behind, maybe by a few hairs lol.

 

Where are you in Connecticut?

[Kitz Craver]

9 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Lol... Last winter sucked ass. But this winter is not far behind, maybe by a few hairs lol.

 

Where are you in Connecticut?

100% I’m in Meriden

[ORH_wxman]

More threads are better. Super threads honestly suck because you have to Wade through so much crap sometimes. 
 

This thread is completely fine. Unless you were under the delusion that it was going to be all snow in your backyard, it’s a thread that is seeing increased support for some sort of system. There are likely to be plenty of people on this forum who see good snow from this. It happens to favor CNE/NNE right now…which is what the antecedent airmass has suggested for quite some time. For SNE outside of the higher terrain north of the pike, it’s always been a thread the needle system for big snow. 

[Torch Tiger]

ICON faster and more amped the past few runs.  

[Snowcrazed71]

16 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

100% I’m in Meriden

Plainville here.

[Ginx snewx]

33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

More threads are better. Super threads honestly suck because you have to Wade through so much crap sometimes. 
 

This thread is completely fine. Unless you were under the delusion that it was going to be all snow in your backyard, it’s a thread that is seeing increased support for some sort of system. There are likely to be plenty of people on this forum who see good snow from this. It happens to favor CNE/NNE right now…which is what the antecedent airmass has suggested for quite some time. For SNE outside of the higher terrain north of the pike, it’s always been a thread the needle system for big snow. 

It's the Tippy Canoe Jinx Will. Lol 

[Ginx snewx]

34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

More threads are better. Super threads honestly suck because you have to Wade through so much crap sometimes. 
 

This thread is completely fine. Unless you were under the delusion that it was going to be all snow in your backyard, it’s a thread that is seeing increased support for some sort of system. There are likely to be plenty of people on this forum who see good snow from this. It happens to favor CNE/NNE right now…which is what the antecedent airmass has suggested for quite some time. For SNE outside of the higher terrain north of the pike, it’s always been a thread the needle system for big snow. 

Can I start a thread for the 19th? I remember when you often said a week out was too long for threads. But yea it doesn't matter. We just need some JUJU changes.  Sort of like that luck you guys harp on.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Yay gfs. If only…

[HoarfrostHubb]

10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yay gfs. If only…

Yeah.   Good luck with that.  I do wish it was faster but I realize the issues with that.  Can’t have a snow day on 2/14

[WinterWolf]

14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yay gfs. If only…

18z never disappoints…always good for a laugh/or a hope. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

18z never disappoints…always good for a laugh/or a hope. 

Yup. Nice to look at but a precarious needle threader, such an outcome is a long shot. Euro/eps would have to fail miserably too. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yup. Nice to look at but such a precarious needle threader, such an outcome is a long shot. Euro/eps would have to fail miserably too. 

Well that ain’t so hard(Euro and EPS failing)  anymore…and it’s still 6 days out, so that wouldn’t be to surprising either. But yes, it’s an 18z mirage for sure.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well that ain’t so hard(Euro and EPS failing)  anymore…and it’s still 6 days out, so that wouldn’t be to surprising either. But yes, it’s an 18z mirage for sure.  

What is interesting is that it’s all southern stream. The NS never phases in. 

[DJln491]

Why is 18z integrity less than 12z?  Is it run with different data?

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

What is interesting is that it’s all southern stream. The NS never phases in. 

That wouldn’t surprise though either Luke. The last couple years, things don’t phase to proficiently it seems…or they phase too late.  So who knows…it’s just another solution at this stage. 

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, DJln491 said:

Why is 18z integrity less than 12z?  Is it run with different data?

They’ll tell you it isn’t any different….but watch how 18z more often than not, will show something exotic, or out of sync from what 12z showed just 6 hrs earlier many times.  Just saying. 

[Torch Tiger]

Looks to be similar to the previous storm, tbh. Temp profile blows unless you are in-up.  Another 1-3" of mostly non-accumulating snow is probably in the cards here

[Typhoon Tip]

You guys are acting like your on the spectrum with this shit at this point.  It's that bad -

wtf

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You guys are acting like your on the spectrum with this shit at this point.  It's that bad -

wtf

Tons of preemptive cope and reverse psychology. We know the drill by now. 
 

I’ll ask people to keep this thread cleaner though. Keep the focus on this system and not personal depression on how this winter is going. Everyone already knows how bad it’s been south of the pike. 

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You guys are acting like your on the spectrum with this shit at this point.  It's that bad -

wtf

18z GFS was a different solution. No phasing, all S stream.  Is it just another random solution? What’s your feeling on it John? 

[Typhoon Tip]

Could not be more cut and clear what's different between the GFS of 18z and the prior two runs. This version doesn't have the N/stream tucking into and phasing over MN during Monday.  

Remove that we get this purer S stream result.   Add it you gut a dynamic juggernaut with more prolific output.

But this version is fine.

I'd like to remind folks that confidence was set at medium for this event.   You seem to be mentally deficient to actually read and react base upon what was actually written.   Then you say things like "Tip threads" and "poor guy" ... you know.  First of all, every thread I've started in the past 3 years has been > 75% correct at long leads, and some were remarkable at ranges of 7 to even 10 days. 

Some of you are bit too brash/rude and don't paint a very good picture of yourselves...  Plebeian witted

[ORH_wxman]

18z GEFS still has a decent spread but there’s a surprising number of members that never get the storm to our latitude  

 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

59 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

What is interesting is that it’s all southern stream. The NS never phases in. 

 

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Could not be more cut and clear what's different between the GFS of 18z and the prior two runs. This version doesn't have the N/stream tucking into and phasing over MN during Monday.  

Remove that we get this purer S stream result.   Add it you gut a dynamic juggernaut with more prolific output.

But this version is fine.

I'd like to remind folks that confidence was set at medium for this event.   You seem to be mentally deficient to actually read and react base upon what was actually written.   Then you say things like "Tip threads" and "poor guy" ... you know.  First of all, every thread I've started in the past 3 years has been > 75% correct at long leads, and some were remarkable at ranges of 7 to even 10 days. 

Some of you are bit too brash/rude and don't paint a very good picture of yourselves...  Plebeian witted

Thanks

[Typhoon Tip]

17 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

18z GFS was a different solution. No phasing, all S stream.  Is it just another random solution? What’s your feeling on it John? 

No, you got it...  that's exactly the right read.

I'm not sure we should sans the N/stream involvement just yet.  There's a lot of time blah blah, but unfortunately that's true.  We'd like the 06z solution this morning to have been 72 hours from now, but ... this is what we get in a pattern that is both trying to transition toward a slower more meridian character, as well as switching R-wave modes ( --> +d(PNA)  )

Models are not going to do their best work in those regimes.  

I'm still middle confidence we're dealing with a significant system - I'm low confidence at how high or below middling scale that will be.  Also, it's perfectly fine for if ALB-Brian to Dryslot to steal the magic on this - they're part of our forum   ... Speaking to the general audience here.

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z GEFS still has a decent spread but there’s a surprising number of members that never get the storm to our latitude  

 

 

It's a step back in coherency from what I'm seeing - not hugely so... It could easily be "giga" motions en route to some final scenario. I mean that's highly likely true, anyway.

But the N/stream S/W vanished after being better sampled spanning a couple cycles.  Not a big trusting fan of sudden abatement -  suspicious. That' not typically what happens.  Attenuation is another thing... 

I traced that back in the source, and it's unfortunately originating over/~ the Date Line X N. Pac from that progressive trough approaching the Aleutians...  ... I don't know how well the flow/features are assimilated or sampled over there, but that doesn't strike me as high confidence handling - considering that initially the flow is on the flat side and progressive out there, and has to then relay into a flow in the processes of transitioning into a meridian look. 

I think it's possible we deal with these peregrinations for a couple more days frankly.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's a step back in coherency from what I'm seeing - not hugely so... It could easily be "giga" motions en route to some final scenario. I mean that's highly likely true, anyway.

But the N/stream S/W vanished after being better sampled spanning a couple cycles.  Not a big trusting fan of sudden abatement -  suspicious. That' not typically what happens.  Attenuation is another thing... 

I traced that back in the source, and it's unfortunately originating over/~ the Date Line X N. Pac from that progressive trough approaching the Aleutians...  ... I don't know how well the flow/features are assimilated or sampled over there, but that doesn't strike me as high confidence handling - considering that initially the flow is on the flat side and progressive out there, and has to then relay into a flow in the processes of transitioning into a meridian look. 

I think it's possible we deal with these peregrinations for a couple more days frankly.

This makes sense.  Now this is very informative.  Obviously we have a long way to go, before we have a handle on what may transpire here is the bottom line.

[Damage In Tolland]

Voices of reason parenting , prevailing , perusing 

[WinterWolf]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Voices of reason parenting , prevailing , perusing 

I’ll tell you, it’s a breath of fresh air that’s for sure.  That’s what we used to get here. That’s why we came here.  Hopefully this reasonable discourse continues as we go forward with whatever this ends up becoming.