Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[CoastalWx]

Let’s ping in Tolland and pound in Union.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

I usually find ORH and then follow the terrain downward to the SW until I get a little into CT

Atta boy. Two towns south of the MA border and NW of 84. 

[Kitz Craver]

15 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya warm nose gets just north of 84 at the peak before crashing down with heavier rates.. would still get 6"+ for most of CT as it pounds right after that.. 12km much cooler.. 

I don’t like that

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Just ran the 3km NAM 1 hr snow from my basement.. 5.3" of snow in one hour lol.. The 3km snow output total is from only 2-3 hours of snow, not good relying on 6" of snow to accumulate in 2-3 hours with borderline temps.. 

 

Probably algorithm chaos with ptype issues as the IP flips back to S. The ptype for the hour determines what the algorithm calls water equiv as snow for the previous 60 mins.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not the point. The range can be lower. 

 

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Brett going all in on 10:1. Hate to see it.

I’m not, but you’ve become an unbelievable Debbie. We get it, the last two years have blown. This will be your biggest snowfall since the Jan 22 blizzard, just enjoy it, instead of hand wringing whether the range should be 6-8 or 8-12.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Usually where warmth comes in easiest aloft 

I don't see any reason to be conservative with the warm air aloft.. It's going to come flying in and north.. 3km has the right idea 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Depends I did it.. I got a heck of a drive to work but I work 4 on 4 off..  but between working and driving it's a 15 hour day.. but the time off up here is more than worth it 

I would love to move up there. I was looking at videos of snowstorms in Worcester.  Looks like a nice city. 

My wife don't want to move up there. Maybe I can convince her one day. 

[TalcottWx]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Let’s ping in Tolland and pound in Union.

Snow in Simsbury, Tears in Tolland

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

 

I’m not, but you’ve become an unbelievable Debbie. We get it, the last two years have blown. This will be your biggest snowfall since the Jan 22 blizzard, just enjoy it, instead of hand wringing whether the range should be 6-8 or 8-12.

If 8-12 makes it feel comfortable in your footie pajamas good for you. But I care more about being correct. Remove the 10:1 from your eyes. 
 

 

[EastonSN+]

12 k was colder and snowier than 3k south of 84 FWIW.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, TalcottWx said:

Snow in Simsbury, Tears in Tolland

There won’t be any sleet. This is snow/ rain setup .

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Usually where warmth comes in easiest aloft 

Has no problem blowing through here

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

If 8-12 makes it feel comfortable in your footie pajamas good for you. But I care more about being correct. Remove the 10:1 from your eyes. 
 

 

I think you care more about being a Debbie to be honest.

 

im not getting 10:1, we know that. But even on the warmer solutions we pound here at some point: I’m expecting 6-9” of heavy Phil.

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I would love to move up there. I was looking at videos of snowstorms in Worcester.  Looks like a nice city. 

My wife don't want to move up there. Maybe I can convince her one day. 

Is she afraid of trees?

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Has no problem blowing through here

You must have taken that pic a week or so ago when we still had snow OTG.

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

12 k was colder and snowier than 3k south of 84 FWIW.

3K usually sucks beyond 30 hours but that said it does tend to have a cold bias at that range in the MLs at times so the fact its somewhat torchy down there could be concerning but perhaps its just too amped with the mid level lows

[weathafella]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Why would the GFS have more snow because it has H7 going further north?

I interpreted it as less snow.  Ignore the clowns.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I think you care more about being a Debbie to be honest.

 

im not getting 10:1, we know that. But even on the warmer solutions we pound here at some point: I’m expecting 6-9” of heavy Phil.

Have I been wrong? I know what it takes around these parts. I’m not feeling the big snows, but hopefully a decent storm. 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

3K usually sucks beyond 30 hours but that said it does tend to have a cold bias at that range in the MLs at times so the fact its somewhat torchy down there could be concerning but perhaps its just too amped with the mid level lows

I feel like 3k usually owns the 12k.

[Damage In Tolland]

Pete gets it 

https://x.com/petenbcboston/status/1756681688380244380?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I feel like 3k usually owns the 12k.

 

Inside 30-36 it definitely does when you're talking about mid-level warm nose stuff...sometimes beyond that in events where you're all snow or all rain with no concerns about mixed precip I have seen it sometimes capture banding ideas or track better than the 12K but it seems to be a crapshoot on that

[JKEisMan]

25 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Just ran the 3km NAM 1 hr snow from my basement.. 5.3" of snow in one hour lol.. The 3km snow output total is from only 2-3 hours of snow, not good relying on 6" of snow to accumulate in 2-3 hours with borderline temps.. 

 

Rgem seems to be highlighting that same area of enhancement. Looks good overall.

[SnowGoose69]

The RGEM last 2 years seems to always be too cold until about 24-30 hours out then it goes 30 miles north with the warm nose or R/S line.  I would not be surprised if we see the same thing again here but we'll have to see how the Euro sees things next 2-3 runs

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, JKEisMan said:

Rgem seems to be highlighting that same area of enhancement. Looks good overall.

 

[moneypitmike]

18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Atta boy. Two towns south of the MA border and NW of 84. 

While you're on the northside of 84, does it actually run through Tolland?  I thought is straddled the highway

[moneypitmike]

6 minutes ago, JKEisMan said:

Rgem seems to be highlighting that same area of enhancement. Looks good overall.

The good news for some (hi) is that no matter what situation, the Pike/495 region is locked.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

While you're on the northside of 84, does it actually run through Tolland?  I thought is straddled the highway

Yes it goes thru Sw-Se part of town on border with Vernon and Willington 

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Pete gets it 

https://x.com/petenbcboston/status/1756681688380244380?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

I’d rather him poo poo it.

[Prismshine Productions]

Kiss of death, watch all the models start ticking South.  
my original call for Greenfield was 4”-6” So I will just stick with that and hopefully be surprised with a positive bust.

8-12", gotta be hopeful (even Albany is issuing me to have 8-12")

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[CoastalWx]

Reggie would be nice