Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[Snowcrazed71]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Morphing. Slowing down some perhaps. Wind being introduced.  I’ll take my 10” and be happy. 

He’s so jaded…ya hate to see it. 

Yeah.. I don't get it with this guy. No a bad look for him either

[wxsniss]

0z Euro very close to 12z except maybe moves out a hair faster so not as gangbuster closing in eSNE

Intense CCB 12z-18z Tues

Amazing how stable Euro/GFS guidance has been relative to rest of season

Very high confidence for 6-12" across most of SNE, spots 10-14", maybe even spots 14-18" with ratios and steep fronto

Huge factors for eSNE are (1) how quickly temps cool, as currently shown start of in low-mid 30s for a few hours, and (2) any bit of capture prolonging this even 2-3 more hours will translate to additional ~3-6" at those rates 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

H5 is closed by 18z Tuesday....12z didn't even do that. But for whatever reason, 12z was so slow....

12z

18z

[MuddyWx]

The pivotal kuchera is a bit more tame for us in EMA / coastal plain

[The 4 Seasons]

Posted the first call for CT earlier, here it is extended into SNE. Will updated tom or Monday.

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

The pivotal kuchera is a bit more tame for us in EMA / coastal plain

Northern Berks/Mitch-Monads jack. Lock it in. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Yeah.. I don't get it with this guy. No a bad look for him either

Not a bad look for all of SNE.  8-10, 10-12 away from the immediate shore, take your pick at this point. There will always be winners and losers.  I’ll take my chances at this point. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Posted the first call for CT earlier, here it is extended into SNE. Will updated tom or Monday.

I like it.  But I will say, I usually do better than Hartford here, so I’ll disagree on that part. But good first call. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

South coast gets into a little danger here the past couple of euro runs. 2m concerns aside, the dryslot and H7 0C hug the coastline for a bit after an initial thump. Then it’s back to some snow in the ccb as the mid level low passes. 

With the trend of a more digging primary, h7 is nw on every consecutive. Playing with fire.

 

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You do fine.

Yea 6-8 is fine. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Northern Berks/Mitch-Monads jack. Lock it in. 

Agree....I'm hoping for a south tick, at this point....I don't love the look of the mid levels.....looks like a big WCB, then a lot of crap after maybe 8-10".

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

The pivotal kuchera is a bit more tame for us in EMA / coastal plain

I would go with this....looks more reasonable than WxBell....I don't know why they hammer ratios when the deformation is up near Jeffrey to Dendrite.

[40/70 Benchmark]

EPS gone ape-shit.

[ice1972]

37 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I like it.  But I will say, I usually do better than Hartford here, so I’ll disagree on that part. But good first call. 

Southington is basically Hartford for winter purposes........God I hate winter these days

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

Southington is basically Hartford for winter purposes........God I hate winter these days

Hartford is CT river valley…we do better most all the time than they do. But whatever.  

[WinterWolf]

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

EPS gone ape-shit.

We take.

[40/70 Benchmark]

[40/70 Benchmark]

Most of SNE is going to dry slot.

[weathafella]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Most of SNE is going to dry slot.

GFS has H7 going almost over BOS while Euro has it going through CT and straight east along the south coast thereafter.  Therein is probably the difference in the snow output and temperatures.

[codfishsnowman]

28 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Hartford is CT river valley…we do better most all the time than they do. But whatever.  

Bristol/Southington def does better on average. I lived in Bristol for 30 years. The River valley is a whole other beast.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, weathafella said:

GFS has H7 going almost over BOS while Euro has it going through CT and straight east along the south coast thereafter.  Therein is probably the difference in the snow output and temperatures.

Why would the GFS have more snow because it has H7 going further north?

[HoarfrostHubb]

BOX

Little change since yesterday 

 

[SouthCoastMA]

GFS/RGEM 6z runs cooled a tick vs 0z

[Damage In Tolland]

Everything on track for 8-14” lollis to 16 for SNE. Warning snows to coast.Expected Messenger  ticks beginning at 6z. Nice move south 6z GFS for S CT folks 

[joey2002]

6z GFS a bit south crushing CT and RI (10:1)

[H2Otown_WX]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

BOX

Little change since yesterday 

 

Looks reasonable but there should be a 12-16" contour somewhere

[UnitedWx]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agree....I'm hoping for a south tick, at this point....I don't love the look of the mid levels.....looks like a big WCB, then a lot of crap after maybe 8-10".

Looks like you may have just that on the 6Z GFS. Need to study it more

[moneypitmike]

My p/c is calling for 9-13".  It's nice to see those amounts and think "that's reasonable".

[ORH_wxman]

06z GFS might have been the first run in a while on that model that ticked a little south. Small amount though as has been with that model throughout this threat. It’s been acting like the old euro with small moves. 

[NeonPeon]

I've seen enough. This is going to be a nice storm for many people, but I'm not one of them. Even the depiction in the gps which as discussed is a little improved, I don't really buy for this little microclimate in the Narragansett bay. That flattish changeover line when the low is west of us, is always a nose into the bay. 

Need a few more southern ticks to get back to something good here.

 

[ORH_wxman]

06z euro looks a tick less zonked too.