Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[NotSureWeather]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Gfs most steadfast imo 

Pretty crazy looking back at the past 4 GFS runs. Hasn’t changed at all really.

[weatherwiz]

I'm not sure how I feel about these elongated llvl + mlvl lows. This is going to be an insanely difficult forecast. There will be busts in the higher direction and the lower direction I think and I'm not even sure how you portray that within a forecast. 

[Damage In Tolland]

39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah verbatim it was the icon. Nobody said they would start as rain.

Yes they did. It’s there in a post 

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yes they did. It’s there in a post 

Well since you’re the only one that’s seen it why don’t you bump it?

[moneypitmike]

GFS clown has come down to a better sense of reality.

Congrats, James.

[Prismshine Productions]

18z GFS... higher amounts ticked north from 12z (I went from 6" to 7.5 for reference)

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[HIPPYVALLEY]

9 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

GFS clown has come down to a better sense of reality.

Congrats, James.

Falmouth looks good, should I chase to my folks place?  Lol 

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Falmouth looks good, should I chase to my folks place?  Lol 

Jackpot for the fishes. 

[Damage In Tolland]

The person since edited it to S CT lol. They had CT and conveniently added S in front of CT after these posts . They know who they are. It was after the Euro first came out.Hint. They don’t live in SNE 

Edit.. and they weenied this post 

[Patrick-02540]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The person since edited it to S CT lol. They had CT and conveniently added S in front of CT after these posts . They know who they are. It was after the Euro first came out.

LOL.  I don't know who it was, but that's funny.  

[Prismshine Productions]

50th percentile and GEFS nearly identical

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[CT Rain]

Here's our first call. Only thing I don't like about the 18z GFS is that it brought the 700mb low a bit farther north. Have to watch that south of the Pike I think. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Here's our first call. Only thing I don't like about the 18z GFS is that it brought the 700mb low a bit farther north. Have to watch that south of the Pike I think. 

Yeah there's alot with the 700 low that has me nervous. I think this is going to be a nice storm but still lots of questions to resolve. 

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said:

LOL.  I don't know who it was, but that's funny.  

We know and they know. And they don’t like the GFS

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

ICON starting to sober up too. Came south a good tick but still north of other models. 

yeah all these run cycles are doing are putting out wobble versions ... All solutions within a narrowing goal post range are really still valid, but as long as the run in hand doesn't go out side the posts it just 'giga' motions. 

I think it's interesting that the global models are in agreement and it is the mesos this time that are having trouble getting on board. The 6-14" Jan 7 event was the other way around.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya, I’m not thinking so either. Just makes you laugh when just on Thursday folks were saying how come we don’t get wind with these storms lately?  And BOX is hitting the wind in their watches…so I just found it ironic. 

Not to be an ass but I really wasn't sure why folks were assessing that.  I just read "yeah and not much wind" ...I was looking at a 982 mb low ESE of of LI going      really?

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The demon-death band is just NW of this H7 fronto

 

There's hints there of concentric bands ...that's weaker frontogenic band paralleling that extends roughly MTW to N. Adams up there.  Probably a solid band of moderate pivoting in position out there for a 3 or so hours.   Greenfield may end up in a gravity well.

[weatherwiz]

BDL 18z GFS bufkit...holy crap. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

BDL 18z GFS bufkit...holy crap. 

It’s like 19 fully naked women running right at your face 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

GEFS with another good bump nw.. south ct crew with toasters on stand bye

[Hoth]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

GEFS with another good bump nw.. south ct crew with toasters on stand bye

Nah. We knew this was coming. 

[Ginx snewx]

7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

GEFS with another good bump nw.. south ct crew with toasters on stand bye

 

6 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Nah. We knew this was coming. 

Benchmark GEFS. It's OK boys looks good to me

[Ginx snewx]

More stuff to analyze

[DJln491]

11 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

GEFS with another good bump nw.. south ct crew with toasters on stand bye

Looked more like a slide due west vs a nw bump?  I dunno

[Sn0waddict]

12 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

GEFS with another good bump nw.. south ct crew with toasters on stand bye

Shocking I say.

[tunafish]

Opening bid from GYX.  

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There's hints there of concentric bands ...that's weaker frontogenic band paralleling that extends roughly MTW to N. Adams up there.  Probably a solid band of moderate pivoting in position out there for a 3 or so hours.   Greenfield may end up in a gravity well.

That doesn’t seem like something I should be excited about.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

More stuff to analyze

 

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wow

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

Benchmark GEFS. It's OK boys looks good to me

Like Euro suite it’s more a function of stronger SLP and not bumps north 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

Benchmark GEFS. It's OK boys looks good to me

Little bit of paranoid nerviness going on ...

It might have done some folks some good to have lived through the 1980s.  They might be a little more iron hulled to these sort of minutia model hip checks.  lol

'magine going 3 days of duck and cover ticker warning messages about cryo dystopia bombs only to wake up to 9 F with sun dimly visible on the morning of the "apocalypse"