Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

On what model? The ICON?

Yeah verbatim it was the icon. Nobody said they would start as rain.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

On what model? The ICON?

Yes at 12z. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Big bump

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[WinterWolf]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro . Someone posted it 

No the ICON at 12z showed that. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It should move pretty quick, I think

yeah that's what I'm thinking...that's why I think it is going to be difficult to exceed a foot with this, though not impossible. Right now though I'm thinking 10-16'' for max zone but I'll do a forecast tomorrow. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro . Someone posted it 

Don’t think so 

 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Big bump

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Lol..went from a half inch to 9” in 6hrs on the Reggie. 

[Snowcrazed71]

13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya, I’m not thinking so either. Just makes you laugh when just on Thursday folks were saying how come we don’t get wind with these storms lately?  And BOX is hitting the wind in their watches…so I just found it ironic. 

I wasn't able to come on for most of the day. Are we still looking okay here and our area of CT?

[78Blizzard]

Euro has 925 50 kt winds for most of EMA, which could easily transfer some of that to the surface at the height of the storm. Definitely will have blizzard conditions there if that verifies.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

what does 15z look like?

Only 6 hour intervals...12Z

 

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Don’t think so 

 

2m temps are a bit warm on the Euro for valley/shore at the onset. Kevin would be fine of course. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I wasn't able to come on for most of the day. Are we still looking okay here and our area of CT?

Go back and catch up a bit.  But Yes sir. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Only 6 hour intervals...12Z

 

I really hope there won't be much subsidence south of the band. Haven't divulged too much into those details yet but that is always a concern. I am also a bit nervous by this placement b/c the most intense banding (I think in this case) would be displaced towards the northwest side of this fronto...so the highest totals would be like S VT/S NH....then south of there could have several different issues going on.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

2m temps are a bit warm on the Euro for valley/shore at the onset. Kevin would be fine of course. 

Yeah agreed and I’m not even really counting a few drops at the onset for a place like HFD down to MMK before they wetbulb…when the real precip gets going, it’s going to be snow unless we see some drastic change in guidance over the next 24-36h. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

I really hope there won't be much subsidence south of the band. Haven't divulged too much into those details yet but that is always a concern. I am also a bit nervous by this placement b/c the most intense banding (I think in this case) would be displaced towards the northwest side of this fronto...so the highest totals would be like S VT/S NH....then south of there could have several different issues going on.

No way to pinpoint exactly where this sets up, especially at this stage.  ‘13 in the February blizzard, the death band was forecast to set up over eastern/northeast areas, and it came back this way.  That was not forecast even the day of.  So I mean we can take a guess of course, but in the end it’s just a guess. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I really hope there won't be much subsidence south of the band. Haven't divulged too much into those details yet but that is always a concern. I am also a bit nervous by this placement b/c the most intense banding (I think in this case) would be displaced towards the northwest side of this fronto...so the highest totals would be like S VT/S NH....then south of there could have several different issues going on.

Wait another cycle and it will be somewhere totally different . Last run 700mv low was in central Jersey . Could either go back south or end up over BDL next run 

[HoarfrostHubb]

BOX map. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Current map and disco from Albany:


***We show warning level snow amount of 6 to 9 inches through our eastern Catskills, mid-Hudson Valley, southern Berkshire, central and southern Taconics, and Litchfield County where there is higher confidence for the stronger snow banding to impact and show a sharp northern cut-off around the Capital District where amounts quickly drop off to 3 to 5 inches. Even less for areas north and west of Albany with just coating to 1 inch. We therefore issued a Winter Storm Watch for the aforementioned areas in the 6-9 inch range and will hold off on areas further north where there is still uncertainty on the northern extent of QPF. If confidence increases the precip shield extends as far north and west as the GFS/EC and their ensembles, we will need to expand winter storm watches.***

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[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

No way to pinpoint exactly where this sets up, especially at this stage.  ‘13 in the February blizzard, the death band was forecast to set up over eastern/northeast areas, and it came back this way.  That was not forecast even the day of.  So I mean we can take a guess of course, but in the end it’s just a guess. 

 

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Wait another cycle and it will be somewhere totally different . Last run 700mv low was in central Jersey . Could either go back south or end up over BDL next run 

Yes, there is a great deal of uncertainty with it and there is no way to know for sure right now exactly where it holds up. That's why I've held off on making any type of forecast at this point. But what I'm looking at is as we get closer, how will the modeled band be in relation to what occurs? My thinking is at verification time, the banding is going to end up being northwest of where the models are pinpointing.  Looking at where the models show the highest QPF axis 12 hours out and saying that is the sweet spot may not work out that way. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

57 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

From the NARCAN?!?

Yep.

[CoastalWx]

That’s not a bad first guess. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I really hope there won't be much subsidence south of the band. Haven't divulged too much into those details yet but that is always a concern. I am also a bit nervous by this placement b/c the most intense banding (I think in this case) would be displaced towards the northwest side of this fronto...so the highest totals would be like S VT/S NH....then south of there could have several different issues going on.

Yes

[Ginx snewx]

Pretty cool as all models converge on a Euro solution Buckaroo

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Pretty cool as all models converge on a Euro solution Buckaroo

Feeling good on your birthday big guy…snow on the way, what could be better right. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Pretty cool as all models converge on a Euro solution Buckaroo

 

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Feeling good on your birthday big guy…snow on the way, what could be better right. 

LFG

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s not a bad first guess. 

I'll take the over on 8" here.

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Pretty cool as all models converge on a Euro solution Buckaroo

Gfs most steadfast imo 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll take the over on 8" here.

Well it’s a first guess. 

[weathafella]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Gfs most steadfast imo 

Looks like it juiced up a bit this run?  Memory-I haven’t actually compared.