Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 2/10/2024 at 7:13 PM, WinterWolf said:

Actually that 12z EPS is even better here…

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Much juicier yes , heaviest axis north though, I'd like to see that settle down over us tomorrow .. Not really worried with so much guidance south.. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Did the axis really shift or is just more widespread and stronger now?

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm behind on everything but the new Euro looks like someone between Danvers/Waltham to PVD over to Milton could be near B conditions for a couple of hours...

[Kitz Craver]

  On 2/10/2024 at 7:06 PM, Hoth said:

I can't wait for my cold rain with 1" of slush on the back end. I can sense this is where this is heading down here.

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I really don’t think so

[ma blizzard]

  On 2/10/2024 at 7:15 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

These shifts are more a stronger storm than shifts north. There’s more stronger members  The mean is near BM

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with more N/S interaction it initially gets further north before sliding out to the E/ENE

[WinterWolf]

  On 2/10/2024 at 7:15 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Much juicier yes , heaviest axis north though, I'd like to see that settle down over us tomorrow .. Not really worried with so much guidance south.. 

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I think my point was it(EPS) increased here from 6z.  I don’t need to jack pot, I like where where I am at the moment, and have for a while.  Let’s do it. 

[weatherwiz]

Does anyone who have Weatherbell (or maybe Storm vista) have access to EPS at the 700mb level? Weathermodels doesn't have it but I am curious to see what the EPS do with the mid-levels

[Kitz Craver]

  On 2/10/2024 at 7:13 PM, WinterWolf said:

Actually that 12z EPS is even better here…

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Lock it

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/10/2024 at 7:13 PM, WinterWolf said:

Actually that 12z EPS is even better here…

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Its a better storm overall with more N stream insert, but its just that the very best shifted north.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

 

  On 2/10/2024 at 7:15 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Did the axis really shift or is just more widespread and stronger now?

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It shifted thats why I posted that it shifted .

[dryslot]

  On 2/10/2024 at 6:46 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Be nice if @MJO812 and the NYC crew could at least get a few inches. 

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Poor ant, He does this to himself everytime.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 2/10/2024 at 7:18 PM, WinterWolf said:

I think my point was it(EPS) increased here from 6z.  I don’t need to jack pot, I like where where I am at the moment, and have for a while.  Let’s do it. 

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Not about jacking, the further north it is the more mixing for southern 3rd of CT, you are just far enough north to be pretty solid no matter what unless this just goes wagons north.. 

[dryslot]

  On 2/10/2024 at 7:19 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

 

It shifted thats why I posted that it shifted .

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I swear I don’t know what some look at in here, It’s pretty clear to see.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Heh...cute.

 

[ineedsnow]

  On 2/10/2024 at 7:19 PM, dryslot said:

Poor ant, He does this to himself everytime.

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@MJO812just has to move north

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 2/10/2024 at 7:22 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Heh...cute.

 

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EURO has been so damn jumpy unlike GFS for a change.. Last run that was shifted 150 miles SW

[Typhoon Tip]

I didn't think so but shit if the Euro isn't trying for a 16" in just 4 or 5 hours here.  wow. It's got an absolute PWAT loaded CCB clearly channeling from ~ Marblehead to Framingham, with strong winds now too. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/10/2024 at 7:25 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

EURO has been so damn jumpy unlike GFS for a change.. Last run that was shifted 150 miles SW

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I agree with the NE shift because it implies a late phase....that usually is slower than modeled.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 2/10/2024 at 7:15 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Did the axis really shift or is just more widespread and stronger now?

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It’s mainly a shift north with qpf . Storm still tracks near BM. People seem like they’re basing that on snow maps 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/10/2024 at 7:26 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

I didn't think so but shit if the Euro isn't trying for a 16" in just 4 or 5 hours here.  wow. It's got an absolute PWAT load CCB clearly channeling from ~ Marblehead to Framingham with strong winds now too

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Yea, I think on that run the most intense weather combo is just south of me, but I am near the max snowfall because the areas to the south are more marginal to start.

[CoastalWx]

It can stop now

[tavwtby]

  On 2/10/2024 at 7:19 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its a better storm overall with more N stream insert, but its just that the very best shifted north.

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we don't want too much more N stream interaction though, could really cause some issues, no? bring it north, but possibly slow it some?

[CoastalWx]

  On 2/10/2024 at 7:28 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I think on that run the most intense weather combo is just south of me, but I am near the max snowfall because the areas to the south are more marginal to start.

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Congrats 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/10/2024 at 7:30 PM, CoastalWx said:

Congrats 

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I'm not getting 2 feet.

[dryslot]

The partial phasing, as opposed to a full phase was discussed yesterday which would be problematic for many if it was a full one a little bit of something is better than a lot in this instance, there has not been any run so far that have fully phased this this so I’m doubting that that’s even gonna happen

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 2/10/2024 at 7:28 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s mainly a shift north with qpf . Storm still tracks near BM. People seem like they’re basing that on snow maps 

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Mid level tracks are the reason not qpf 

 

[HinghamBoss]

What kind of ratios should we be looking at south and east of BOS?  This has the feel of 6” of paste down these parts while someone puts down 12” in Milton/Foxboro.

[dryslot]

12z EPS went north too.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 2/10/2024 at 7:36 PM, HinghamBoss said:

What kind of ratios should we be looking at south and east of BOS?  This has the feel of 6” of paste down these parts while someone puts down 12” in Milton/Foxboro.

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You’ll get more than 6” if the euro and gfs are right 

[Damage In Tolland]

So much wringing of hands  . It’s going to be fine. Messenger sits and smiles