Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

985 at Block Island does that?  Something's not right.  That should be a decent storm for CNE and NNE, not a 4-8er.

Storms these days man, none of them want to put in the work. Back in my day, something, something, handshake, job.

[JKEisMan]

Wait for the ens. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

And I see people hyping the pattern after this Rainer. 

Patiently waiting for Brooklyn's beautiful late feb h5 ens maps. 

[MJO812]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Patiently waiting for Brooklyn's beautiful late feb h5 ens maps. 

Check other subforums

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Storms these days man, none of them want to put in the work. Back in my day, something, something, handshake, job.

The Euro is a slacker?!

Lets give it a day off and stick with every other suite of guidance...

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I agree ensemble storm tracks have been extremely volatile this year.  Need to wait this one out until we get multiple cycles of consistency 

Phasing events should always be treated in their own category. Phasing is really all about timing. Even if you have spot on consistency for multiple cycles and for multiple days, as you get closer something could muck up the timing. Until the energy within the two streams is being sampled well and models are initializing with consistency and there is a solid understanding of the downstream pattern, these can be a pain. We've seen some storms in the past where it looked like timing wasn't going to work out and then around D3...boom. 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

985 at Block Island does that?  Something's not right.  That should be a decent storm for CNE and NNE, not a 4-8er.

It’s a very sheared shortwave. Almost certainly won’t end up verifying because it’s a razors edge solution where it’s in the perfect spot not to amplify into anything more substantial. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

.

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

Knew that was coming lol

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s a very sheared shortwave. Almost certainly won’t end up verifying because it’s a razors edge solution where it’s in the perfect spot not to amplify into anything more substantial. 

Lousy inflow, mid levels very meh

[Sey-Mour Snow]

What’s funny is the infamous weenie high after being “Nam’d” for lack of better words is not attainable nowadays in the 4-5 day range (which wasn’t always the case).  If that EURO run just dropped a 48” snow bomb across all of New England at day 5 it would do nothing for us bc we know it has almost no chance of verifying.  

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Lousy inflow, mid levels very meh

Yep. You aren’t getting double digit worthy QPF from that look. Not much dynamics either. 
 

Im not very optimistic for SNE in this system, but it’s not because of a euro solution. Euro is one a million different versions that can end in not much. 

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

For fun, take a look at what the Euro spits out for the Cape Breton Highlands. North of a meter.

[Typhoon Tip]

I put the odds at > 50% the EPS mean looks comparable to the last cycle ...with secondary probability > 50 % that it actually looks even better.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

For fun, take a look at what the Euro spits out for the Cape Breton Highlands. North of a meter.

They know what they can do with all 3 meters, just for fun.

[Damage In Tolland]

This one now seems destined to continue the ratter . Scooter knew . Rainer to Mainer 

[Ginx snewx]

28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

They know what they can do with all 3 meters, just for fun.

For fun tanning my nape early this year. Might as well get an early start 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

This one now seems destined to continue the ratter . Scooter knew . Rainer to Mainer 

Ain't raining in Maine. More likely they get smoked.

[Typhoon Tip]

OT but in the winter of 2000 (might have been 2001) I saw pictures of snow pack up there to 12’ or more, with whole homes tented over at the far end of canyons of white.  

[Torch Tiger]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep. You aren’t getting double digit worthy QPF from that look. Not much dynamics either. 
 

Im not very optimistic for SNE in this system, but it’s not because of a euro solution. Euro is one a million different versions that can end in not much. 

It seems like the mid-levels and WCB get going too late/ far east, no?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

OT but in the winter of 2000 (might have been 2001) I saw pictures of snow pack up there to 12’ or more, with whole homes tented over at the far end of canyons of white.  

2000-2001

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This one now seems destined to continue the ratter . Scooter knew . Rainer to Mainer 

Well, still time left for something...but It's a real needle threader IMO. Especially in my area. 

[MRVexpat]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Ain't raining in Maine. More likely they get smoked.

If he can't snow, nobody can. 

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This one now seems destined to continue the ratter . Scooter knew . Rainer to Mainer 

So it doesn’t look like rain to snow all the way to the coast as it did this morning…because the Euro shit itself again? 

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Ain't raining in Maine. More likely they get smoked.

Absolutely. 

[8611Blizz]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well, still time left for something...but It's a real needle threader IMO. Especially in my area. 

Needle threader is the phrase of the season...

[SouthCoastMA]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So it doesn’t look like rain to snow all the way to the coast as it did this morning…because the Euro shit itself again? 

These southern stream systems usually trend north..nothing should be surprising with todays current runs. Maybe confluence trends stronger, but I'm not counting on it. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

Needle threader is the phrase of the season...

Last two really. I was just talking to Will about this. I never expected much from this event...recall we said the first such event during this "pattern change" probably favored interior. But at the same time I'm just like..."can't something go right for once?" 

[tamarack]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2000-2001

Average 1st half of winter that went nuts in Feb-Mar, 48" pack on 3/31.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I knew the EURO sucked when @MJO812described it as "nice".....that is a term people use to describe something that is uninspiring when they don't want to label it as such for fear of judgement. 

Think of of what women mean when they call you a "nice guy"....

[Ginx snewx]

EPS is warm as well for SNE