Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[DJln491]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s prob from first flakes to last flakes it might be 12-15 hours but for stuff that actually is going to accumulate it’s prob like 9 hours. 

Sounds good to me

[Torch Tiger]

I'm wondering if we see a few more SE ticks, if not moves compared to the D4 gfs/euro placement

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

I'm wondering if we see a few more SE ticks, if not moves compared to the D4 gfs/euro placement

Locked in

[Prismshine Productions]

Meanwhile on the NAM, slightly less confluence thru hr21

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[Torch Tiger]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Locked in

concerns here, not major concerns or anything (yet). Gradients will be quite sharp for this one, good luck to those on the edge 

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

concerns here, not major concerns or anything (yet). Gradients will be quite sharp for this one, good luck to those on the edge 

Maybe if you live near CON.

[cleetussnow]

53 minutes ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

Last night some were saying 12-16 from this. Lol That was never possible to begin with due to how fast this is moving. Overall looks like a moderate impact system. 6-10 widespread.

Kuchie euro just dropped a 20 burger on my head.  12 is not impossible.  

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Kuchie euro just dropped a 20 burger on my head.  12 is not impossible.  

I’d be pretty surprised if there wasn’t a decent stripe of 10-14” but it won’t be for everyone. 

[jbenedet]

3 days worth of catching up for the GFS, and still behind. The NAM is even worse. 

Be careful with them GFS clown maps in SNE; bc GFS has highest QPF.

[ORH_wxman]

NAM will be north of the 06z run but that isn’t surprising considering how flat 06z was

[HoarfrostHubb]

51 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

@HoarfrostHubb

I’ve been pretty accurate for my area lately.     Could a fluff bomb accentuate the goodness? Sure.     For now I’m sticking with 8-12 here 

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Perfect 

[CoastalWx]

Nam is paltry lol. 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Nam is paltry lol. 

Amazing how different some models are this close in.. 

[ORH_wxman]

NAM was def north early on but it kind of ended up similar to 06z. Still in clown range for that model though. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Amazing how different some models are this close in.. 

nam would be the one to take this over the canal so it’s puzzling to see it. My guess is it’s too far south, but it’s also stubborn.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

NAM was def north early on but it kind of ended up similar to 06z. Still in clown range for that model though. 

Yeah shunted east. I noticed that.

[Prismshine Productions]

Looks like the hi-res disagrees a little with the 12km

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[jbenedet]

I’m liking this event a lot less at the moment; the airmass out ahead has evolved to marginal and the northern stream which could deliver on both fronts is coming too late. 
 

The RGEM surface temps are very likely a lot more realistic than the NAM on Tues. That’s trouble. 
 

You need the trailing northern stream shortwave to hook up with this.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Let’s analyze Today’s 2m temp trends for Tuesday’s system lol. 

[tavwtby]

looks like a good band from say dxr up to orh, could see some nice lollies in there somewhere where it goes to town with rates... although does appear in line with H7, shouldn't the best lift be just NW of that? that would put it in Berks to SNH

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Let’s analyze Today’s 2m temp trends for Tuesday’s system lol. 

If everyone hates this event, he’d love it. Contrarian

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I’m liking this event a lot less at the moment; the airmass out ahead has evolved to marginal and the northern stream which could deliver on both fronts is coming too late. 
 

The RGEM surface temps are very likely a lot more realistic than the NAM on Tues. That’s trouble. 
 

You need the trailing northern stream shortwave to hook up with this.

Really?  The airmass looks to be very good when the storm arrives for most. Immediate coast may take a lil bit, but they should cool quickly. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

If everyone hates this event, he’d love it. Contrarian

Yup!  That’s “The Pope Affect”

[jbenedet]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Let’s analyze Today’s 2m temp trends for Tuesday’s system lol. 

Good luck. Even your beloved GFS is slowly selling your snow.

[WinterWolf]

I’m actually glad he like it less…That should pretty much guarantee a region wide crushing. 

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I’m liking this event a lot less at the moment; the airmass out ahead has evolved to marginal and the northern stream which could deliver on both fronts is coming too late. 
 

The RGEM surface temps are very likely a lot more realistic than the NAM on Tues. That’s trouble. 
 

You need the trailing northern stream shortwave to hook up with this.

Surprised you are bearish on the snow threat. 

[Ginx snewx]

Let's blend baby.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Really?  The airmass looks to be very good when the storm arrives for most. Immediate coast may take a lil bit, but they should cool quickly. 

It’s not that great. Sufficient inland, but May need a couple Hours to wetbulb outside higher elevations.

[Ginx snewx]

7 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Good luck. Even your beloved GFS is slowly selling your snow.

Sell this