Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Sorry, just not following where you're referring to with your initials. PSM/PWM.

Can You elaborate on those please. Thanks

 

 

PSM = portsmith nh

PWM = portland me

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

can you post some pics from 144-168? I think it's that storm vista site that has those in precip panel maps..everything else seems to just go out to 144

150/156/162/168

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Basically He is calling for a NNE hit.

[Prismshine Productions]

CMC ENS fwiw

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[Typhoon Tip]

Given the deep layer mechanics going on at the time ( as is and of course subject to change from this range...blah blah blah-blah blah) that 156 hour panel is 3-5"/hr thundersnow between ORH and ASH.  It could rain .75" inches and they'd still clock a foot after the change over... then, another 2 to 3"  over the 6 hour mortality of the event

[HoarfrostHubb]

Let’s see if the once and future king can figure any of this out.  Or if it’s still in exile. 

[WinterWolf]

Figure it out at day 6?  That would be a tallTask even when it was the king. Not any more unfortunately. 

[WinterWolf]

35 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Nah, my take on the GEFs is that y'all missin the boat on the most important aspects ...which in fact add to the general probability make-up of this thing.

Let's first get this into higher confidence before we divvy out cosmic dildo inches to whom ? 

That defense posturing psycho-babble gets tiring - it's okay in funny/small/sardonic doses but do we have to wade through people's mental sludge for 6 f'um days?

This mean is in fact 2 to perhaps 4 mb deeper per interval comparing to the 06z/prior spread.  It also has less spread indicated, with a more of an even dispersal of 980 or lower members.  The mean is parked over the climate dot for bigger events between NYC and PWM 12z this next Tuesday... at which time the 850 mb temperature is S of PVD.  That's just about as far as we need to focus for now. 

 

 

Agreed. I mean we are 6 days out…all of these solutions are pretty much not correct at the moment.  What we do know is that this looks to have the potential to be a big powerful system somewhere off the N. East coast.  
 

And I’ll gander that it’ll probably…(wait for it)….”attenuate” as we close in. The last few yrs that’s been the theme too.   How’s that for this yrs buzzword.  

[weatherwiz]

There are other maps to analyze besides snow maps. 

Anyways, here is the Euro at 120. Definite differences versus the GFs with both streams

[MJO812]

Euro is nice for the interior 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

There are other maps to analyze besides snow maps. 

Anyways, here is the Euro at 120. Definite differences versus the GFs with both streams

Faster and less interaction no run to run continuity yet.  Much worse for most .  We will get something vastly different at 00z I assume 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is nice for the interior 

It’s ok never phases in time just a pedestrian snow fall for CNE/NNE

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Euro north and warm, expected. Nice cold rain for SoP. 

[Prismshine Productions]

.

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[MJO812]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Euro north and warm, expected. Nice cold rain for SoP. 

 

[weathafella]

Euro can eat my shorts.

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Faster and less interaction no run to run continuity yet.  Much worse for most .  We will get something vastly different at 00z I assume 

Yup...very hard to gauge any kind of expectations right now. Just too much inconsistency. I wouldn't even put much stock into the ensembles right now either. 

[weathafella]

I just realized Sop means south of the pike.  I’m trying to merge that with sop more widely know. As standard operating procedure.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

 

The good thing is with how fast it is moving, there won’t be any flooding concerns. 

[MJO812]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The good thing is with how fast it is moving, there won’t be any flooding concerns. 

Awful winter continues 

[Henry's Weather]

Back to reality… a storm of the magnitude of the GFS solution is rather rare. We must remember that the mundane outcome is still, despite high-octane guidance, the most likely outcome. Speed up 2 more days and that story changes

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, weathafella said:

I just realized Sop means south of the pike.  I’m trying to merge that with sop more widely know. As standard operating procedure.

Yea SOP is standard operating procedure so I try to use SoP for South of Pike…

[Ginx snewx]

Why Tip why. EURO rainer SNE moderate CNNE 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Yup...very hard to gauge any kind of expectations right now. Just too much inconsistency. I wouldn't even put much stock into the ensembles right now either. 

I agree ensemble storm tracks have been extremely volatile this year.  Need to wait this one out until we get multiple cycles of consistency 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Looks like Ray might be far enough north on the euro to get his nuisance commute for a few inches 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Looks like Ray might be far enough north on the euro to get his nuisance commute for a few inches 

Hopefully he does 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Awful second winter continues 

Yea man, it’s exhausting from a tracking perspective and it’s depressing for the weenies in us.

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

Euro trying for the Eastport special(ish).

[mahk_webstah]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

985 at Block Island does that?  Something's not right.  That should be a decent storm for CNE and NNE, not a 4-8er.

[MJO812]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea man, it’s exhausting from a tracking perspective and it’s depressing for the weenies in us.

And I see people hyping the pattern after this Rainer.