Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[mahk_webstah]

21 minutes ago, tunafish said:

Pretty realistic assessment from GYX this evening for our areas. 

 

The storm system we have been watching for Tuesday took a
northward jog on the latest models runs, and show a significant
snowfall for southern areas. While a change of one run wouldn`t
normally justify a significant change in thinking for a
forecast, we were watching for this northward trend to appear on
this run. Although lacking any hard numbers to back it up,
recent memory serves as a reminder that these west to east
storms have trended northward beginning around the day 4
timeframe. The expectation is that the model and ensemble runs
would continue to trend a little farther north over the next few
runs. We`ll watch for this trend to continue, and adjust
accordingly if it does not, but POPs were brought up much higher
than NBM with this forecast for Tuesday in anticipation of a
continued trend. While still too early to discuss specific
amounts, there is certainly the potential for warning level
snowfall across at least southern areas for late Monday night
and Tuesday with this system. There is also a strong consensus
that this system will have a sharp northern edge, with snowfall
amounts quickly dropping off on the northern edge somewhere in
our CWA. Where this edge ends up will be a difficult forecast
challenge that we will work to resolve over the next few days.

I suppose we. could get bump north but I don’t think it will be a big jump.  The trend stopped and reversed this afternoon.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

16 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Stock up on groceries for the 6 hour storm lol

 

only 6 hours of my daily 20 hour fast.. People could use a break from the constant insulin spikes.. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

You better have at least several inches if you go streaking.  Continuing this thought, you will get several inches if you go streaking.

good luck and stay safe!

A weenie streaking in nyc brings back home a couple weenies. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

FWIW long range NAM is way south and looks like it would be good for SNE extrapolated 

[Hoth]

22 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Welcome back positive George.

The duel has been canceled.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

FWIW long range NAM is way south .. 

good. When it’s north, the short range mesos then typically follow.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

good. When it’s north, the short range mesos then typically follow.

ya its actually believable at 84.. same timing and thermals as the big boys.  Looks a bit weaker, south, and colder , but it's a possible solution I guess. 

[CoastalWx]

Looks like it would be pretty good in SNE. 

[ineedsnow]

5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

FWIW long range NAM is way south .. 

Looks like it would hit pretty good 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

ya its actually believable at 84.. same timing and thermals as the big boys.  Looks a bit weaker, south, and colder , but it's a possible solution I guess. 

Just need it to not track the h7 low over the berks at any point next 72hrs, that’s all. Whatever else it shows is almost irrelevant.

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like it would be pretty good in SNE. 

Agreed. It’s friggin’ cold too. It’s like -10 to -12c at 850 and 26F at BDL when it starts snowing Tuesday morning at the end of the run…lol

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Agreed. It’s friggin’ cold too. It’s like -10 to -12c at 850 and 26F at BDL when it starts snowing Tuesday morning at the end of the run…lol

Yeah it drops Logan to 30ish by 12z. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like it would be pretty good in SNE. 

Ya it just has the low pressure off of Carolina/VA coast at 84, thats pretty damn south.. But it has good precip well north. 

[UnitedWx]

15 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

FWIW long range NAM is way south .. 

Not worth much at this range 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I just want to see the SW remain very coherent and not sheared....all I care about....because if that is the case, the northern fringe will be poundtown.

[Ginx snewx]

17 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

FWIW long range NAM is way south .. 

 

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like it would be pretty good in SNE. 

 

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Agreed. It’s friggin’ cold too. It’s like -10 to -12c at 850 and 26F at BDL when it starts snowing Tuesday morning at the end of the run…lol

NAM actually looks excellent for that time frame

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah it drops Logan to 30ish by 12z. 

Airmass has steadily improved as we get closer. Not used to seeing that the last two winters. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

 

NAM actually looks excellent for that time frame

It's well south and looks good. 

[weatherwiz]

The NAM would deliver the goods to many. 

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya it just has the low pressure off of Carolina/VA coast at 84, thats pretty damn south.. But it has good precip well north. 

It is. But I’ve  noticed on all guidance the mid levels are pretty far removed from the center too. Obviously you don’t want it squashed , but just something I’ve noticed. 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Airmass has steadily improved as we get closer. Not used to seeing that the last two winters. 

Yes, I was thinking that same thing. We thought we were gonna have a crap airmass for this, so it’s really nice to see. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It is. But I’ve  noticed on all guidance the mid levels are pretty far removed from the center too. Obviously you don’t want it squashed , but just something I’ve noticed. 

ya from that primary tracking into West Virginia 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It is. But I’ve  noticed on all guidance the mid levels are pretty far removed from the center too. Obviously you don’t want it squashed , but just something I’ve noticed. 

 

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

ya from that primary tracking into West Virginia 

I smile...

[HIPPYVALLEY]

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The NAM would deliver the goods to many. 

I'm mildly concerned about 8 hours of arctic sand N of RT 2.

edit: and W of ORH Co.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

RGEM looks great too, great start to 00z would be a crushing for all of SNE. 

[ariof]

The wife is currently flying in from DTW to BOS arriving at like noon on Tuesday … figuring she'll either be Monday night or Tuesday night … or if it really blows up Wednesday morning. Will be interesting to see if Massport pulls the emergency chain and declares that nothing comes in on Tuesday. Not that big a storm, probably.

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I'm mildly concerned about 8 hours of arctic sand N of RT 2.

I’m mildly concerned about a day of clouds.

Looks like it should be a good one to raise spirits in SNE. Everyone has been so beaten down this winter. Would be nice to get some positivity going for the masses.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I'm mildly concerned about 8 hours of arctic sand N of RT 2.

probably tomorrow start paying closer attention to snow growth, lift, snow ratios, etc. I feel like there are going to be alot of challenges with this one. Several red flags and several green flags (or whatever is used to refer to something good lol). 

[JKEisMan]

RGEM at the end of its run also similar to NAM, obv both out of range. But nice to see some consistency, being very dynamic.

[Ginx snewx]

7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

RGEM looks great too, great start to 00z would be a crushing for all of SNE. 

Yep on board