Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[weatherwiz]

16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

By fall rates? perhaps .. I'm thinking 12" might be more common due to speed of system translation.   Maybe a couple 13.5ers for bragging rights.. which technically justifies the top side of that range but the interquartile density/distribution is 12"  Now, someone pops one of those zomb 7" hours with a couple of CG .. that makes that easier.  But I'm not sure CSI is very factor-able being on the left exit-left entrance side of the jet. 

12" in 4 hours is good stomp and I don't see the heaviest axis lasting very long in any location ... in and out. 

It's likely to go down hill outside really fast.  You see it start snowing so you run out to the store, and by the time your coming home your wondering if that was such a good idea type visibility problems.  The lifting mechanics will move in/through quite fast

The speed of the storm could certainly be a factor in obtaining those higher ranges. That always needs to be factored in when thinking go big or go home type ordeals. Not setting that potential into stone yet, but something I think is viable if everything falls together correctly. 

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Discounted.

IDK...probably more likely it can be discounted but I'm not going to do so just yet. I'm giving until 0z/6z guidance before totally dismissing it. I mean even at this stage we're seeing large spread within the northern stream and still some differences with the southern stream. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

My Goalposts are from a zone ranging from Waterbury, CT to Springfield, VT and points NE from there.

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

Your optimism is a welcome balance to my jaded outlooks when it comes to snow accumulations  in the upper Valley. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I feel like a lot of people are thinking about the spike before they have actually gotten into the end zone.  Hopefully everyone from NYC to  CNE gets plowable snows but I think the band of 8”+ will be narrow. 

[RDRY]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I feel like a lot of people are thinking about the spike before they have actually gotten into the end zone.  Hopefully everyone from NYC to  CNE gets plowable snows but I think the band of 8”+ will be narrow. 

Hard not to like our locations for this one. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Whhhheeeeeeee

 

[weatherwiz]

To Tip's point about getting totals that high, that band will be zipping along

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I feel like a lot of people are thinking about the spike before they have actually gotten into the end zone.  Hopefully everyone from NYC to  CNE gets plowable snows but I think the band of 8”+ will be narrow. 

I don't. 8"+ will be widespread.

[FXWX]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

It's a fricking beautiful thing. No paste though.

Love seeing that moist flow plowing westward into the cold dome... great inflow, as depicted...

[weatherwiz]

BDL - I'll take this come verification 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

BDL - I'll take this come verification 

I never know how to interpret these. 

[ORH_wxman]

18z euro looks a tad south of 12z through 78h. Not totally shocking given the 12z eps. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I never know how to interpret these. 

the purple/yellow box denote the snowgrowth zone (I always forget though what the difference between the purple/yellow are).

The red contours are omega (rising motion). you want the best omega right within the snowgrowth zone (crosshair signature). This is a great signal for heavy snow with intense rates.

[ORH_wxman]

Now out to the end of the run at 90h…it’s def south of 12z

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Now out to the end of the run at 90h…it’s def south of 12z

It will bounce back N at 0z. It does this almost every run inside d5 but with tighter and tighter deviations. 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It will bounce back N at 0z. It does this almost every run inside d5 but with tighter and tighter deviations. 

Hope so

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Now out to the end of the run at 90h…it’s def south of 12z

can see how the weaker backside energy leads to the vort maintaining latitude. also leads to lower heights downstream in SE canada

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Now out to the end of the run at 90h…it’s def south of 12z

 

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It will bounce back N at 0z. It does this almost every run inside d5 but with tighter and tighter deviations. 

 

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Hope so

Perfect track and the worries about lack of cold air are gone.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

the purple/yellow box denote the snowgrowth zone (I always forget though what the difference between the purple/yellow are).

The red contours are omega (rising motion). you want the best omega right within the snowgrowth zone (crosshair signature). This is a great signal for heavy snow with intense rates.

And time is right to left, weird but ok, and the SGZ lowers as the atmosphere saturates? I always though it was stagnate. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Hope so

You don’t need it. Sharing is caring.

[DavisStraight]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't. 8"+ will be widespread.

Its going to be a narrow strip next to the 12+ strip.

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It will bounce back N at 0z. It does this almost every run inside d5 but with tighter and tighter deviations. 

We are locked 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

And time is right to left, weird but ok, and the SGZ lowers as the atmosphere saturates? I always though it was stagnate. 

The SGZ can vary. The snowgrowth zone is denoted within the level of the atmosphere in which temperatures range between -12C and -18C. This is the temperature rage where the best dendrites are produced. So in a colder airmass, the bottom of the snowgrowth zone will start at a lower height level within the troposphere. So you're seeing the SGZ lower there because the airmass is getting colder. 

Yes, time goes right to left. 

[Heisy]

This run was likely going to clobber just Nw of Philly beyond 90 with ccb precip. Surprised down here, blip or real deal? Def a south push this run


.

[Damage In Tolland]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't. 8"+ will be widespread.

Agreed . A lot of posters in SNE will be double digits . Lots of doubters. This one  is relatively easy to forecast 

[NorEastermass128]

51 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I feel like a lot of people are thinking about the spike before they have actually gotten into the end zone.  Hopefully everyone from NYC to  CNE gets plowable snows but I think the band of 8”+ will be narrow. 

At this point, I could be in the end zone with the refs indicating touchdown and I’d still be scanning the field for any flags to call it back!

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The SGZ can vary. The snowgrowth zone is denoted within the level of the atmosphere in which temperatures range between -12C and -18C. This is the temperature rage where the best dendrites are produced. So in a colder airmass, the bottom of the snowgrowth zone will start at a lower height level within the troposphere. So you're seeing the SGZ lower there because the airmass is getting colder. 

Yes, time goes right to left. 

Right. The temp range is static but not the layer where the range is located. We high…

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We are locked 

I love your confidence but I’ve had too many touchdowns since 2011 called back from this far out. 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Right. The temp range is static but not the layer where the range is located. 

Correct. sorry...misunderstood what you were asking.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I love your confidence but I’ve had too many touchdowns since 2011 called back from this far out. 

It’s a good sign that we’re getting oscillations now in the past few cycles…not a discernible trend. It def could still trend but usually when you start oscillating it means the trends are probably not going to be steep. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Correct. sorry...misunderstood what you were asking.

No you understood. I was missing the last piece. The DGZ did not drop there because the atmosphere was saturated. It dropped because it cooled.