Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

12z Euro is pretty zoinked this run, Definitely came north.

Ooh Dryslot is back.  That can only mean good things for the northerners.

[Typhoon Tip]

50 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

With a pasty snow and mid February sunshine, water will be pouring down rainspouts after the temps spike to 40...steam rising from the blacktop. Down here it will be done by 10 am, sun by noon

Doubt it will be that mild... but if the sun did come out in time, yeah ... steam dogs on sunny sides of roof tops. But it may also be breezier than we think.  This this thing's heading below 980 mb prior to 70 W so there may be a bit of wind for a couple of hours as this is ending, too.

[Kitz Craver]

43 minutes ago, WeatherX said:

Wheels have come off the SOP crew train for this one. It was fun while it lasted though, basically 3 1/2 days notice for yet another failure. 

Disagree 

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just get me double digits...no JP fetish here.

Who hacked Ray's Tandy?

[Spanks45]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Doubt it will be that mild... but if the sun did come out in time, yeah ... steam dogs on sunny sides of roof tops. But it may also be breezier than we think.  This this thing's heading below 980 mb prior to 70 W so there may be a bit of wind for a couple of hours as this is ending, too.

 Hope so...although I like having my solar panels void of snow for obvious reasons. Its getting to the point down here at least, you almost need to start with...back in the day we actually had to shovel and snow blow our snow. Now just let the sun and warmth work it's magic, since 2022 at least...

[WinterWolf]

39 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Not too worried....I actually received my first seed order today, so at this point I could go either way. Garden time soon....Lots of outdoor work to get done this Spring as well, so earlier the better. However, I still love how snow makes even the oldest folk act and feel like kids, so if it snows, awesome if it doesn't, time to start the spring work early....

I quoted the wrong post…i meant to quote the one where you said the sun would be out at 10am.  But I get what you’re saying. I guess my point was, I think we’re in a pretty good spot at the moment. GFS was very nice. So was Euro, and so was the EPS.  Let’s just enjoy this, and see what happens. If it ends up sucking, we’re used to it from the last two yrs lol.  

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

 Hope so...although I like having my solar panels void of snow for obvious reasons. Its getting to the point down here at least, you almost need to start with...back in the day we actually had to shovel and snow blow our snow. Now just let the sun and warmth work it's magic, since 2022 at least...

I don’t think it gets to warm after it ends…

[ORH_wxman]

29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We looking at typical upper 20’s temps for this? 

I think eventually (esp interior) but the first 2-4 hours might be pasty. 

[WeatherX]

2 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Disagree 

I think if you are 5-10 miles north of the CT Coast, no need to worry. Unless there are more ML moves north or the system decides to "attenuate". I live on the coast of CT so my posts my seem alarmist lol. I know how it rolls NOM (north of merritt). 

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I agree with Ray.  This is a rather impressive analog just on the scratch surface appeal, between the ICON/Euro blend ( or just Euro below), vs Dec 9 2005.    Both events moving swiftly... right down to the sun set likely visible in the evening of this one, just like that one back whence.    I mean the NCEP Library version (left) may as well be one of the present Euro ensemble members of today -

Just about what I gather for max snowfall, too.

[Kitz Craver]

2 minutes ago, WeatherX said:

I think if you are 5-10 miles north of the CT Coast, no need to worry. Unless there are more ML moves north or the system decides to "attenuate". I live on the coast of CT so my posts my seem alarmist lol. I know how it rolls NOM (north of merritt). 

Oh, ok… gotcha

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Two more runs and we’ve got the north of pikerte 2 through Jeff special I’ve been expecting 

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

That thing is hauling east. 

Hours and hours….

[Damage In Tolland]

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think eventually (esp interior) but the first 2-4 hours might be pasty. 

Let’s see if we can keep it all pretty pasty .

[Ginx snewx]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Let’s see if we can keep it all pretty pasty .

50⁰ on Sunday foot on Monday then it's winter again.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

35 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I don’t think it gets to warm after it ends…

Yup. That’s a good airmass working it’s way into the system. temps stay below freezing after it departs. 

[Brian5671]

43 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

 Hope so...although I like having my solar panels void of snow for obvious reasons. Its getting to the point down here at least, you almost need to start with...back in the day we actually had to shovel and snow blow our snow. Now just let the sun and warmth work it's magic, since 2022 at least...

given that we are going into mid Feb sun angle should melt it off within a day or two especially if they're black like most of them...

[PowderBeard]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

We are in a good spot now. This isn't going to go way further north . South shore of SNE should be good.

 

[tavwtby]

it'd be nice to have the airmass that follows this system in place before it gets here for a change, looks like another toe the line temp system, and it's moving, so ceiling ain't too high here, maybe a bit east up through ORH will be better, ALY is weary with pops at this time, don't blame em, within 4 days and still very flip floppy, at least something is there to track...

[Prismshine Productions]

Weird looking evolution on the NAM... Almost if it is trying to get the nrn stream to move faster to act like a phaser to my eyes, damn near did at hr84

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Weird looking evolution on the NAM... Almost if it is trying to get the nrn stream to move faster to act like a phaser to my eyes, damn near did at hr84

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

It's a tad more amplified ... but as far as stream interaction it's about right on queue from the previous/extrapolation - it's a partial deal.  The N/stream is sagging and that "tips" the flow more n out ahead ...which lifts the everything in latitude.

This is would probably go on to being a somewhat more prolific impact at least to NYC/CT/RI as a guesstimate

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

8 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Weird looking evolution on the NAM... Almost if it is trying to get the nrn stream to move faster to act like a phaser to my eyes, damn near did at hr84

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

That would be a SoP crusher. Doesn’t mean much but at least it is not tickling PF’s fanny…yet.

[SouthCoastMA]

7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That would be a SoP crusher. Doesn’t mean much but at least it is not tickling PF’s fanny…yet.

Hes currently sitting quietly, high on his picnic table perch, looking down at the SOP peeps, wiggling his fingers together like Mr Burns

[ORH_wxman]

14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That would be a SoP crusher. Doesn’t mean much but at least it is not tickling PF’s fanny…yet.

That’s a fat PV to the north. It’s not going to rip inland with that setup. There’s def a northern limit. The goal posts are prob like dendrite to south coast right now for the meat of the snow. 

[SouthCoastMA]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s a fat PV to the north. It’s not going to rip inland with that setup. There’s def a northern limit. The goal posts are prob like dendrite to south coast right now for the meat of the snow. 

The 18z ICON has stronger confluence so far, but that 12z run was zonked so no surprise

EDIT; Still pretty zonked lol. 

[ineedsnow]

big hit on the Icon

[512high]

Wow, didn't think I would break 50 today(Davis home station), not ready for spring yet

[ineedsnow]

lock that run in please 

[ineedsnow]

[dendrite]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

We are in a good spot now. This isn't going to go way further north . South shore of SNE should be good.

Why do you do this to yourself?

On 1/1/2024 at 1:46 AM, MJO812 said:

There is a limit to how far north this can go because of the ridge breaking down out west and the blocking to the north. 

Going to be an interesting week 

 

On 2/25/2023 at 9:48 PM, MJO812 said:

There is a limit to how far north this can go

 

On 2/19/2021 at 11:17 AM, MJO812 said:

Gfs comes north with the storm for next Friday. The PV  is right over the lakes.

 

The storm can't come further north due to the confluence over Maine. 

 

On 12/14/2020 at 8:20 AM, MJO812 said:

Its amazing how everyone was saying how this storm can't come north because of the confluence and here we are , models are coming north.

 

[ineedsnow]

kuchie