Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[mreaves]

  On 2/7/2024 at 4:27 PM, Sn0waddict said:

For our Maine friends

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@dryslotjust awoke from his slumber.

[ORH_wxman]

Ukie stops at 144 on the freebies but it has a lot of similarities to the GFS. 

[mreaves]

  On 2/7/2024 at 4:31 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This is pain personified. Bright side is this would likely earn me a day off 

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And there would be plenty of snow for you to come up and ride again.

[jbenedet]

  On 2/7/2024 at 4:44 PM, weathafella said:

Still d6.  Keep that in mind.

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Yeh; no kiddin'.

The teles scream amped solution. This one looks like poor timing in a good longwave pattern. 

The Northern stream looks like it will phase early, and cleanly with the southern stream over the central US. The southern stream vort is also amped, early on out west. The building PNA ridge allows the northern stream to drop right into the central plains. Kaboom.

I'm worried about warm sectoring into SE northern new england.  This thing is gonna crank. Too much of a good thing, for most.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/7/2024 at 4:42 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The gfs is only about 40-50 miles away from a region wide crusher. A slightly later phase and maybe a tick south would have destroyed. Again, it’s not likely, but there is a path.

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A later and imperfect phase is always favored at this time frame...remember that.

This could still mean rain for most of SNE...its a delicate and precarious balance.

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

  On 2/7/2024 at 4:42 PM, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully AstronomyEnjoyer's telescope is buried.

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I would be willing to sacrifice one to the weather gods if it meant it would be buried, tripod and all. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/7/2024 at 4:54 PM, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

I would be willing to sacrifice one to the weather gods if it meant it would be buried, tripod and all. 

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Maybe leave the tippity top of uranus poking out for search teams?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Sydney, NS for Maine on the GEM.

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

  On 2/7/2024 at 4:54 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe leave the tippity top of uranus poking out for search teams?

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No, leave me. I'll climb out when I want to climb out.

[Prismshine Productions]

12 hours straight for CNE

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[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/7/2024 at 4:57 PM, Prismshine Productions said:

12 hours straight for CNE

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

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Just gonna close the office door and have my way with me.

[HinghamBoss]

The theme of 2023-24 for SNE: 12 hours too late.

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 2/7/2024 at 4:33 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Compromise between the GEM and GFS works.

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Compromising two solutions that are likely wrong/'iffy' at best to begin with is tantamount to 'two wrongs not making a right'   no?

[Henry's Weather]

Big kahuna potential, YIKES

[Prismshine Productions]

  On 2/7/2024 at 4:58 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just gonna close the office door and have my way with me.

Look at e27 XD

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[Prismshine Productions]

50/75/90%

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[Kitz Craver]

Serious question… I missed some of the pre season calls, was up and in supposed to be a reoccurring theme this winter?

[The 4 Seasons]

Still a lot of spread on the GEFS. Lots of amped coastal huggers but also still a ton of strung out whiffs. Snowfall mean and probs went way up due to the increase of a few big members in there.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Gefs members aren’t too bad but the fact the generally weak and ots the op typically is at this lead time could be a red flag the zonked SoP members are just model porn and nothing else. 

[jbenedet]

  On 2/7/2024 at 5:19 PM, The 4 Seasons said:

Still a lot of spread on the GEFS. Lots of amped coastal huggers but also still a ton of strung out whiffs. Snowfall mean and probs went way up due to the increase of a few big members in there.

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For S&G's..

 

975/984 location right near PSM/PWM, is my bet at this point. And 975 good baseline in terms of intensity at that location.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/7/2024 at 5:09 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Compromising two solutions that are likely wrong/'iffy' at best to begin with is tantamount to 'two wrongs not making a right'   no?

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Not what I meant....

All I meant was the solution would be nice.

[weathafella]

  On 2/7/2024 at 4:51 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie stops at 144 on the freebies but it has a lot of similarities to the GFS. 

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It’s a bit colder out through 168-a legitimate second 2/3 crusher.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/7/2024 at 5:15 PM, Kitz Craver said:

Serious question… I missed some of the pre season calls, was up and in supposed to be a reoccurring theme this winter?

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I favored the interior into early Feb.

[The 4 Seasons]

  On 2/7/2024 at 5:30 PM, weathafella said:

It’s a bit colder out through 168-a legitimate second 2/3 crusher.

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can you post some pics from 144-168? I think it's that storm vista site that has those in precip panel maps..everything else seems to just go out to 144

[Henry's Weather]

  On 2/7/2024 at 5:30 PM, weathafella said:

It’s a bit colder out through 168-a legitimate second 2/3 crusher.

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Where do you find?

[Typhoon Tip]

Nah, my take on the GEFs is that y'all missin the boat on the most important aspects ...which in fact add to the general probability make-up of this thing.

Let's first get this into higher confidence before we divvy out cosmic dildo inches to whom ? 

That defense posturing psycho-babble gets tiring - it's okay in funny/small/sardonic doses but do we have to wade through people's mental sludge for 6 f'um days?

This mean is in fact 2 to perhaps 4 mb deeper per interval comparing to the 06z/prior spread.  It also has less spread indicated, with a more of an even dispersal of 980 or lower members.  The mean is parked over the climate dot for bigger events between NYC and PWM 12z this next Tuesday... at which time the 850 mb temperature is S of PVD.  That's just about as far as we need to focus for now. 

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 2/7/2024 at 5:29 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not what I meant....

All I meant was the solution would be nice.

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I know - funny

[Snowcrazed71]

  On 2/7/2024 at 5:29 PM, jbenedet said:

For S&G's..

 

975/984 location right near PSM/PWM, is my bet at this point. And 975 good baseline in terms of intensity at that location.

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Sorry, just not following where you're referring to with your initials. PSM/PWM.

Can You elaborate on those please. Thanks

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/7/2024 at 5:35 PM, Snowcrazed71 said:

Sorry, just not following where you're referring to with your initials. PSM/PWM.

Can You elaborate on those please. Thanks

 

 

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Portsmouth, NH...Portland, ME

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/7/2024 at 5:34 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Nah, my take on the GEFs is that y'all missin the boat on the most important aspects ...which in fact add to the general probability make-up of this thing.

Let's first get this into higher confidence before we divvy out cosmic dildo inches to whom ? 

That defense posturing psycho-babble gets tiring - it's okay in funny/small/sardonic doses but do we have to wade through people's mental sludge for 6 f'um days?

This mean is in fact 2 to perhaps 4 mb deeper per internal comparing to the 06z/prior spread.  It also has less spread indicated, with a more of an even dispersal of 980 or lower members.  The mean is parked over the climate dot for bigger events between NYC and PWM 12z this next Tuesday... at which time the 850 mb temperature is S of PVD.  That's just about as far as we need to focus for now. 

 

 

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