Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[Typhoon Tip]

Mm  what y'all who posted about the CMC neglected to mention is that it was a significant N/W trend compared to the previous cycle.. Also slightly slower -

I'd say that is a nod in favor of these late corrections we're seeing from its peers.  Easy to imagine the next run just doing so even more.  

[Ginx snewx]

12 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Beefier precipitation?  But nonetheless uncle is better when he downs 1 or 2 at lunch.

 

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

He's getting close to GGW.

It's almost like they don't look.

[CoastalWx]

Ok beefier for the scallop boats off New Bedford.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm  what y'all who posted about the CMC neglected to mention is that it was a significant N/W trend compared to the previous cycle.. Also slightly slower -

I'd say that is a nod in favor of these late corrections we're seeing from its peers.  Easy to imagine the next run just doing so even more.  

Agree same with UK but apparently that's a wild thing to say. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Ok beefier for the scallop boats off New Bedford.

Can't see the forest thru the trees. Do some research on the MLs differences, forcing. Total change in structure.  Coming north. Save a horse though. Deep winter now on all models well deep winter to most of us. Apparently deep winter in Weymouth is snow up to thy knickers minus 20 with 40 mph winds. We won't have that but a half a foot on the ground and subzero windchill will suffice for deep winter. 

[brooklynwx99]

44 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s a big jump on the last frame…esp looking at the isobars in the gulf of maine 

looks like it has some delayed phasing with the NS vort diving in on the backside. a more favorable evolution for both the NYC metro and NE

[FXWX]

850/700 inflow configuration continues to improve (IMHO), and I suspect we will see qpf numbers inch up further, especially from central / northern Mass on eastward into interior northeastern Mass.  In fact, I'm becoming more impressed with the hvy snow potential across these areas??? For southern CT/RI/southeastern Mass folks, the 850/700 centers are a bit too close for comfort and will likely cause some precip type issues, unless then trend a bit further south.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Can't see the forest thru the trees. Do some research on the MLs differences, forcing. Total change in structure.  Coming north. Save a horse though. Deep winter now on all models well deep winter to most of us. Apparently deep winter in Weymouth is snow up to thy knickers minus 20 with 40 mph winds. We won't have that but a half a foot on the ground and subzero windchill will suffice for deep winter. 

I see all of this. And I have mentioned many times I'd be happy with some decent snow. I don't have to jack. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, FXWX said:

850/700 inflow configuration continues to improve (IMHO), and I suspect we will see qpf numbers inch up further, especially from central / northern Mass on eastward into interior northeastern Mass.  In fact, I'm becoming more impressed with the hvy snow potential across these areas??? For southern CT/RI/southeastern Mass folks, the 850/700 centers are a bit too close for comfort and will likely cause some precip type issues, unless then trend a bit further south.

I mentioned that earlier. Not explicitly about 850-700 but took that into consideration. Just based on how it looks and also my gut that says it will tick north. I'm well aware something more sheared and shunted south could happen. 

[jbenedet]

This event is lost on me so far. Still…

Looking for the perceived “wall” in the northeast; I don’t see it—not at the surface, 850 or 500. Certainly not a high enough wall for potent shortwave to overcome, with long wave spacing that has the span of the CONUS to amplify…850 cold anoms are on the back side of this; not out ahead over the northeast US or SE Canada. That’s a red flag arguing against suppression. 

There’s also a flip flop in NAO conditions as the storm makes its closest approach, neg state to positive. Less confluence; warmer. It also means faster track. With that, I believe the 12z GFS seems like the best case scenario; snow-wise. I wouldn’t benchmark that as the most likely outcome.  

[Ginx snewx]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I see all of this. And I have mentioned many times I'd be happy with some decent snow. I don't have to jack. 

We kid. Ray's got the jack, well he thinks so . We need our SOP JUJU back to keep the Jack's SOP. 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

We kid. Ray's got the jack, well he thinks so . We need our SOP JUJU back to keep the Jack's SOP. 

This winter is a lock to be meh so at this point, I'll be happy with serviceable snow. It's a lost cause of a winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ok beefier for the scallop boats off New Bedford.

And Bilicheck's boat on ACK

[NW_of_GYX]

Great insight from the Mets in here, thanks. Two days ago this was a snowstorm for DC. Probably there’s more rugs to be pulled yet 

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, FXWX said:

850/700 inflow configuration continues to improve (IMHO), and I suspect we will see qpf numbers inch up further, especially from central / northern Mass on eastward into interior northeastern Mass.  In fact, I'm becoming more impressed with the hvy snow potential across these areas??? For southern CT/RI/southeastern Mass folks, the 850/700 centers are a bit too close for comfort and will likely cause some precip type issues, unless then trend a bit further south.

Someone pulls off what I did on Jan 7 IMO.

[Kitz Craver]

SoP needs this so bad. I’m stealing everyone’s snow. Sorry not sorry.

[FXWX]

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I mentioned that earlier. Not explicitly about 850-700 but took that into consideration. Just based on how it looks and also my gut that says it will tick north. I'm well aware something more sheared and shunted south could happen. 

Yep... Discount the sheared option at your own peril.  Not betting it but I refuse to throw out any option given the potential for more or less interaction, and or more or less suppression.  Given we are still in 72+ hour range, we'd be foolish to discount anything.

[FXWX]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Someone pulls off what I did on Jan 7 IMO.

Agree

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, FXWX said:

Agree

I started thinking that late yesterday, but didn't have the balls to say it at that point.

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

We kid. Ray's got the jack, well he thinks so . We need our SOP JUJU back to keep the Jack's SOP. 

Honestly, I could see the jack anywhere from the pike up to about Dendrite.

[jbenedet]

I don’t see suppression here; instead it’s just the trailing shortwave acting more as a kicker.

If there is more phasing this comes much further north imo.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

I don’t see suppression here; instead it’s just the trailing shortwave acting more as a kicker.

If there is more phasing this comes much further north imo.

My thoughts have more or less mirrored your's throughout this ordeal.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I started thinking that late yesterday, but didn't have the balls to say it at that point.

I think a chunk of that was CF enhanced too. I'm not sure this happens like that as winds back quickly in this one vs hours of CF nakedness you had.

 

This system doesn't seem to have a sharpening/curling s/w...might even become more open with time. So if someone gets clocked, it's on the nrn edge of the s/w with it  aligned WSW to ENE or so on the deformation axis.

[Prismshine Productions]

Less confluence through 45 on the EURO

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[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think a chunk of that was CF enhanced too. I'm not sure this happens like that as winds back quickly in this one vs hours of CF nakedness you had.

 

This system doesn't seem to have a sharpening/curling s/w...might even become more open with time. So if someone gets clocked, it's on the nrn edge of the s/w with it  aligned WSW to ENE or so on the deformation axis.

A little...not much....it took it from like 16" to 19". But the swath of well over a foot extended back to the SW to ORH.

Agree on the bolded...this is what I envision.

[Torch Tiger]

5 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

As the kids say .  You are doing too much bro 

OMS is in play at a 4-5 day lead, even the JV models

[jbenedet]

Today’s warm sector and tomorrow 60 near BOS probably have guidance and many that follow, jumping off the suppression train.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Big hit euro.

[dryslot]

12z Euro is pretty zoinked this run, Definitely came north.

[Prismshine Productions]

Woof.

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