Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think there’s still a lot more uncertainty in this system than many of us (including myself) are giving it credit for. That’s a huge gap between models inside of 100 hours. 
 

My gut still says this will not be south but you can’t completely ignore the southern solutions. I’d say you can probably toss the total whiffs but you may need to entertain the possibility we get something a bit more sheared ala the 12z NAM. 

There are multiple things really from progressive flow to small changes across Canada impacting it....I always say I trust the Euro more if we have an El Nino winter and a southern stream juiced system but in this case would not be shocked if whatever the Euro shows today or tomorrow ends up not even close to the end result because it can sometimes drop the ball on key features coming out of Canada that have a major impact on a storm

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Can you stop stealing all the snow. Its annoying. 

 

Thanks

This was never supposed to be anything for the coast anyway. Pray for pd3.

[ineedsnow]

lots of good hits on the GEFS

[mahk_webstah]

23 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Maybe ridiculed is too strong but I was told no way-not that far north!

 

H7 goes right over NYC skirting south coast of new england.

Somebody gets a very heavy band for a few hours. I don’t think that’s as far north as me, but it wouldn’t surprise me if it was near the New Hampshire border.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, RDRY said:

Shouldn't sleep on that follow-up clipper. Blast from the past.

Doesn't look like anything to slow it down, otherwise it would be a nice N stream late-bloomer.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Good jump nw gefs.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

32 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Wish this storm wasn’t in such a hurry.

I can’t even remember the last slow mover, juggernaut we had.

[MJO812]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Good jump nw gefs.

It's further southeast than the op

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Dendy petting his chickens, smilin.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, MJO812 said:

It's further southeast than the op

[tunafish]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This run has the death band from me to ORH to Kev

Within mere inches of me, too.  Not expecting it at this point but we'll see if others come on board.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I can’t even remember the last slow mover, juggernaut we had.

In your hood? Prob Dec 2019…I can’t remember if you got a bit skunked in the Feb 1-2, 2021 storm…and I know you were way too far west for Jan 2022

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yea, no trend here....

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That’s a big jump on the last frame…esp looking at the isobars in the gulf of maine 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

In your hood? Prob Dec 2019…I can’t remember if you got a bit skunked in the Feb 1-2, 2021 storm…and I know you were way too far west for Jan 2022

Do you count 2019 since it came in two waves?

[MJO812]

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Do you count 2019 since it came in two waves?

Yes it was the same system. It just had a couple vort pulses but it was all part of the same ULL

[ORH_wxman]

Ukie still a meat grinder job. But it was def less of a meat grinder than 00z run. 00z was a clean whiff and 12z is a scraper. 

[Ginx snewx]

Even UK starting to get a clue. Save a horse is never more apropos, watch the Euro for moves today. Any stability and lock it up. Total Euro wheelhouse. I say 6 to 10 where ever the best forcing ends up. CMC has jumped the shark. Basically a EURO and GFS superbowl.

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie still a meat grinder job. But it was def less of a meat grinder than 00z run. 00z was a clean whiff and 12z is a scraper. 

Much better MLs and beefier precip. It's getting there.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Ironic that the models which compromise the integrity of the SW the most at this point had modeled the most phased solutions originally. I think this speaks to the inability of the CMC and UK to sufficiently resolve this complex interaction and is why I have summarily dismissed them both as viable guidance with respect to this event for now.

[weathafella]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Much better MLs and beefier precip. It's getting there.

Beefier precipitation?  But nonetheless uncle is better when he downs 1 or 2 at lunch.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Even UK starting to get a clue. Save a horse is never more apropos, watch the Euro for moves today. Any stability and lock it up. Total Euro wheelhouse. I say 6 to 10 where ever the best forcing ends up. CMC has jumped the shark. Basically a EURO and GFS superbowl.

Euro and GFS are close now. Can almost put them on same team. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s a big jump on the last frame…esp looking at the isobars in the gulf of maine 

Huge jump yup.  

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Beefier precipitation?  But nonetheless uncle is better when he downs 1 or 2 at lunch.

He's getting close to GGW.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

He's getting close to GGW.

Its all of the Wind Chill Charts he has been streamlining...they always fire him up.

[tunafish]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

He's getting close to GGW.

From KOD to GGW in 48 hours.  Impressive, tbh.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its all of the Wind Chill Charts he has been streamlining...they always fire him up.

Just sitting back smiling at day 9 op wind chill charts.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Just sitting back smiling at day 9 op wind chill charts.

Debbie is in the house. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Debbie is in the house. 

I'm not a Debbie...but I am not comfortable yet with this "event" coming up.