Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[Sn0waddict]

Wish this storm wasn’t in such a hurry.

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

crush job

red flag post for coast 

GFS looked a hair more amped but still a good hit for most in S/CNE

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

In fast … out slow ..

She might like it that way, but with regard to the storm that makes no sense.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

That is awfully close to a phase job and would thus come more north. 

[CT Rain]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is why he is 5PPD.

What a strange way to live your life. Just posting on a weather board trying to troll people about snow. Imagine having the time to be so lame?

Anyways the GFS looks great. That confluence to the north is going a long way here in making this event an actual event.

[weathafella]

6-12 for most of sne into cne with a potential dendrite jack.  I was ridiculed for suggesting a dendrite jack last night but it certainly is on the table today.

[CoastalWx]

H7 is pretty far north. Nice look into SNH.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That is awfully close to a phase job and would thus come more north. 

Definitely gotta keep that in the back of our minds. I don’t think it has room to fully phase but a little more partial phase wouldn’t be out of the question. 

[WeatherX]

3 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Heaviest precip centered around NYC metro and CT for early Tuesday afternoon. That being said, it's a bit warm for the area, verbatim at least. That 32 line is quite north. 

I'd roll the dice with the precip rates. Run SKEW-T's at your location for temps but this looks like humongous dendrites for a few hours probably accumulating on the typical colder surfaces and ground. I am talking Merritt south in SCT only. 

[CT Rain]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Definitely gotta keep that in the back of our minds. I don’t honk it has room to fully phase but a little more partial phase wouldn’t be out of the question. 

Yeah a partial phase would send this pretty far north. Definitely don't want any more of that south of the Pike. 

[ineedsnow]

CMC looks like crap

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That is awfully close to a phase job and would thus come more north. 

Not calling it for this storm, but we've seen the confluence trend weaker in models as we get closer in..in a few storms this year. Just something to watch

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

H7 is pretty far north. Nice look into SNH.

No suprise here.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, weathafella said:

6-12 for most of sne into cne with a potential dendrite jack.  I was ridiculed for suggesting a dendrite jack last night but it certainly is on the table today.

Nobody ridiculed you though. We simply discuss and hedge. 

[ORH_wxman]

GGEM still a sheared mess. Whiff. 

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Did you even look at anything or are you just trolling?

I think it should be pretty obvious by now... I don't typically like to be involved in that 'are they or are they not' intention stuff... but given the large sample size.  

Plus, ...I reserve the right to "troll the synoptics" itself when the snarky mood strikes me as unbearable. LOL

No but ... if this is that obvious from a given source, an institutional culture of disregarding the source ...it just reduces it to negligible noise and is treated that way.  But for some reason, people keep trying to engage in opposition to the antics, which is most likely what the perp wants them to do.   It's not rocket science. 

Solution?  don't -

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

GGEM still a sheared mess. Whiff. 

Tossed.

[weathafella]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nobody ridiculed you though. We simply discuss and hedge. 

Maybe ridiculed is too strong but I was told no way-not that far north!

 

H7 goes right over NYC skirting south coast of new england.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Not calling it for this storm, but we've seen the confluence trend weaker in models as we get closer in..in a few storms this year. Just something to watch

I am lol. I’m not feeling this regardless of pretty clown maps. We’ll still get ours SoP and even close to the water but this has a pike and north vibe to it…again.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Maybe ridiculed is too strong but I was told no way-not that far north!

 

H7 goes right over NYC skirting south coast of new england.

Well it was the resident officer who is doing his best to will this for nyc. He’s desperate. 

[Krs4Lfe]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Maybe ridiculed is too strong but I was told no way-not that far north!

 

H7 goes right over NYC skirting south coast of new england.

That's how you know the storm is likelier to shift north, or at the very least, unlikely to see the confluence pushing further south. 

[MJO812]

Can you stop stealing all the snow. Its annoying. 

 

Thanks

[RDRY]

6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

CMC looks like crap

CMC should be put out to pasture.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

You’d expect the Canadian to be amped. Kind of weird 

[40/70 Benchmark]

This run has the death band from me to ORH to Kev

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

You’d expect the Canadian to be amped. Kind of weird 

 

I posted in the NYC forum the CMC has nailed the confluenced/grindied events many times before...I always get a bit nervous when its like this relative to the GFS/Euro if the result is shearing out of the SW or confluence...it seems to have somewhat of a history of seeing that better than the other 2 globals...March 2014 I think it was it saw it at this range with both systems that missed the NYC/SNE area.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

You’d expect the Canadian to be amped. Kind of weird 

Why would you expect it to be amped if it doesn't hold a coherent SW? Once it realizes that, then I am sure it will jack Dendrite.

[ORH_wxman]

I think there’s still a lot more uncertainty in this system than many of us (including myself) are giving it credit for. That’s a huge gap between models inside of 100 hours. 
 

My gut still says this will not be south but you can’t completely ignore the southern solutions. I’d say you can probably toss the total whiffs but you may need to entertain the possibility we get something a bit more sheared ala the 12z NAM. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I would be suprised if the southern route worked out, but technically you are right.

[RDRY]

Shouldn't sleep on that follow-up clipper. Blast from the past.