Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[mahk_webstah]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z eps

 

There are a whole lot of members back to the west and north along the coast but I don’t know if that’s an indication that they’re going to track closer to the coast or just that they’re slower.  Would be great to find a solution that finally gives SNE a real storm all the way to the coast, but also manages to snow on most of us.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

There’s growing consensus overall but I wouldn’t spike footballs SoP, that’s all. 

I feel great.

I don't want the QPF max and darkest colors on the map...you can take that.

[ariof]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Honing in on a solution.  Looking pretty damn good %wise

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think everyone points south of MHT, at least, is in great shape.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel great.

I don't want the QPF max and darkest colors on that map...you can take that.

Me neither. At least not right now. I still think we’ll be on the gradient down here where NW CT points ENE to you is the strike zone. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Me neither. At least not right now. I still think we’ll be on the gradient down here where NW CT points ENE to you is the strike zone. 

Someone near the north end is going to get creamed...it may even be north of me.

[weatherwiz]

Been trying not to have much in the way of excitement or expectations for this yet given how much uncertainty there has been but looking over things this morning I am starting to get quite excited. Still lots to iron out and I hope we get some more consistency but you can't hate what the past 24 hours have looked like in the modeling field. 

[CoastalWx]

Unless something catastrophic happens, this looks pasty. Looks like we waste a little to wetbulbing, but probably a wet snow until the last 3rd of the event or so. Hopefully I can break the two year streak of getting a 4”+ event. 

[NeonPeon]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think everyone points south of MHT is in great shape.

There are about 1/4 of members showing the typical p-type issues for extreme SE/coastal folks. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Been trying not to have much in the way of excitement or expectations for this yet given how much uncertainty there has been but looking over things this morning I am starting to get quite excited. Still lots to iron out and I hope we get some more consistency but you can't hate what the past 24 hours have looked like in the modeling field. 

Given the N stream's reluctance to completely join the fray, its commital to abandon ship altogether has ascended this from a marginal, amorphous bag of unrealized potential to a relatively short duration, high impact ordeal.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Given the N stream's reluctance to completely join the fray, its commital to abandon ship altogether has ascended this from a marginal, amorphous bag of unrealized potential to a relatively short duration, high impact ordeal.

Indeed, the duration of the storm as a whole may not be that long, but the period of high intensity could be pretty wild. I don't mind having this arrive during the daylight others either, don't have to kill yourself staying up all night and losing sleep  

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z euro at 90h looks a little more amped than 00z at 96h fwiw. Maybe seeing some stabilizing of the S trend…we’ll know a lot more at 12z. We’ll be getting into that sub-100 hour range now on the 12z guidance which is when confidence starts ramping up faster. 

That actually leaped out at me.  Not only is the wave space a bit deeper in the z coordinate, but if you toggle the previous run you might get an impression of the entire field slightly rotating cyclonic relative to the position of all features.  That's very important as a more subtlety if you ask me, because when dealing in "needle threading"  ( have to tell you ...I'll be happy to put this winter in the books and move on into spring solidly early if I could trade these mother f'ing needle thread system types! ) ... it's like correcting the trajectory of an asteroid:  you don't have to move it but an inch early on along it's pathway ... that inch ends up being miles of difference farther down along its course.

Also, the bulk wave space/mechanics of interest are currently an "inside slider" over eastern Washington and Oregon, having just arrived over land between 06z and 12z here this morning....  I find it interesting that as that's happened, we get this subtle but necessary more robust appeal by the 06z GFS and the 06z EPS means combined...

[Damage In Tolland]

This starts Monday afternoon/ evening. So we’re like 2.5 days from go time. There’s nothing not so far north it can get .

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

If we toss the whiffs, it doesn’t look as good. 

Let's hope for whiffs

We need snow 

[Chrisrotary12]

This thing is hauling ass to the flemish cap. It’s a 10-12 hour event. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Let's hope for whiffs

We need snow 

I just meant the mean isnt a bullseye over us if we exclude the whiffs. It’s north.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Still a ways to go, definitely not taking the cheese here. If it still looks good at 00z tonight, we can discuss 

[HoarfrostHubb]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Someone near the north end is going to get creamed...it may even be north of me.

Hi

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This starts Monday afternoon/ evening. So we’re like 2.5 days from go time. There’s nothing not so far north it can get .

It’s a daytime Tuesday event. Count em up. 4 days. 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s a daytime Tuesday event. Count em up. 4 days. 

It comes into CT late Monday and snows into Tuesday night.These always come in faster as you get closer 

[mahk_webstah]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That actually leaped out at me.  Not only is the wave space a bit deeper in the z coordinate, but if you toggle the previous run you might get an impression of the entire field slightly rotating cyclonic relative to the position of all features.  That's very important as a more subtlety if you ask me, because when dealing in "needle threading"  ( have to tell you ...I'll be happy to put this winter in the books and move on into spring solidly early if I could trade these mother f'ing needle thread system types! ) ... it's like correcting the trajectory of an asteroid:  you don't have to move it but an inch early on along it's pathway ... that inch ends up being miles of difference farther down along its course.

Also, the bulk wave space/mechanics of interest are currently an "inside slider" over eastern Washington and Oregon, having just arrived over land between 06z and 12z here this morning....  I find it interesting that as that's happened, we get this subtle but necessary more robust appeal by the 06z GFS and the 06z EPS means combined...

Given this, 12z should reflect a more clear outcome, because the short waves are now fully sampled. If there’s going to be any significant north trend, it should happen this afternoon on the models.

[brooklynwx99]

25 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

There are a whole lot of members back to the west and north along the coast but I don’t know if that’s an indication that they’re going to track closer to the coast or just that they’re slower.  Would be great to find a solution that finally gives SNE a real storm all the way to the coast, but also manages to snow on most of us.

they’re just slower. they still move ENE offshore

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It comes into CT late Monday. These always come in faster as you get closer 

Maybe Sunday even?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It comes into CT late Monday. These always come in faster as you get closer 

I can see it speeding up, sure. Still would be 3.5 days then. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Wait. Monday night thru tuesday night? 24hrs lol… 
 

Are we drinking already?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

15 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

This thing is hauling ass to the flemish cap. It’s a 10-12 hour event. 

We tried to tell them.  

[WinterWolf]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

We tried to tell them.  

That it’s moving fast? Lol..we’ve known this for a while now. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Wait. Monday night thru tuesday night? 24hrs lol… 
 

Are we drinking already?

DIT trying so hard to have it snow for 24 hrs. 12 hrs and over. And that’s fine. We aren’t choosy at this point. 

[Great Snow 1717]

17 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

This thing is hauling ass to the flemish cap. It’s a 10-12 hour event. 

....are you trying to disrupt the hype machine????

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

....are you trying to disrupt the hype machine????

Where’s the hype machine?