Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GEFS will be somewhat north of the OP is my guess.

Looks a little se. Confluence ramped up.

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, FXWX said:

I think the GFS has a reasonable trend both surface and aloft but I expect it's max qpf axis to adjust further north... Confluence trends are strongly arguing for a heck of fronto band setting up... I usually favor the fronto band to setup a bit further north than modeled at 5 days out.  

This is my feeling too…it’ll correct some in the end. 

[weathafella]

I hate to. put emphasis on any ICON output but I would love to. see the Euro match that tonight.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Looks a little se. Confluence ramped up.

Yep

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, weathafella said:

I hate to. put emphasis on any ICON output but I would love to. see the Euro match that tonight.

Icon/euro/gfs compromise would be ideal. Make it happen. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep

It’s a good spot at d4.5 with alot of nw members. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Maybe I will go down with the ship, but I expect this to come back north. Not a wish cast...those that know me understand I am not shy about predicting a porking.

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, FXWX said:

I think the GFS has a reasonable trend both surface and aloft but I expect it's max qpf axis to adjust further north... Confluence trends are strongly arguing for a heck of fronto band setting up... I usually favor the fronto band to setup a bit further north than modeled at 5 days out.  

Agreed....question is how much...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Ukie looks like dookie. 

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s a good spot at d4.5 with alot of nw members. 

Agreed. We watch and wait in the weather blind as this thing comes together. 

[ORH_wxman]

Ukie is a clean whiff. No QPF north of nyc. 

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe I will go down with the ship, but I expect this to come back north. Not a wish cast...those that know me understand I am not shy about predicting a porking.

The confluence is starting to create a problem since we also have a SE ridge. Really hope this thing doesn’t trend into a meat grinder POS like the Ukie/GGEM. 
 

Hopefully euro comes in solid and then I’ll have more confidence the Ukie/GGEM are out to lunch.  

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The confluence is starting to create a problem since we also have a SE ridge. Really hope this thing doesn’t trend into a meat grinder POS like the Ukie/GGEM. 
 

Hopefully euro comes in solid and then I’ll have more confidence the Ukie/GGEM are out to lunch.  

When is the GGEM not out to lunch?  I mean blind squirrel with that thing. Ukie too. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

When is the GGEM not out to lunch?  I mean blind squirrel with that thing. Ukie too. 

Right but it’s a plausible solution if we see the PV up in Canada continue to press down against the SE ridge. There’s going to be no space for that southern shortwave to keep its strength…it will get ground to a pulp at some point if that trend doesn’t cease. Hopefully this is the extent of it. 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

We wait and watch…we know where these correct some towards the end. I like our spots right now. 

Not with that confluence up north. This either produces further south or ends up getting shredded completely. 

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Not with that confluence up north. This either produces further south or ends up getting shredded completely. 

You presume that the confluence holds.  It may but it hasn't this year in this lead time.

[Sn0waddict]

I weirdly like where I am confluence be damned. Just got a decent feeling about this one..

Also I was today years old when I learned the ICON has ensemble members. Wtf

[weathafella]

The Euro came about 50 miles south.  Still decent up to the pike and certainly not the mess that CMC and UKMET are.  Low end warning event for MA with 4-6 near the NH border, 6-8 near the Pike,  8-10 for a lot of CT.  With the 850 closed low passing close enough we could see a few hours of pretty heavy snow further north .

 

 

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

The Euro came about 50 miles south.  Still decent up to the pike and certainly not the mess that CMC and UKMET are.  Low end warning event for MA with 4-6 near the NH border, 6-8 near the Pike,  8-10 for a lot of CT.

Foot here. Come to poppa

[wxsniss]

Yeah this evening's trends of greater confluence continues

Just a hint of what Will described of the GGEM...  an "almost phase" interaction with NS, but fortunately does not shear it out like GGEM and still have a very potent system... 6-12" towards seasonal redemption across much of SNE SoP. Still a ways to go...

[Ginx snewx]

Let's get the ball rolling. Fun times ahead.  Let me tickle your Kuchie 

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Let's get the ball rolling. Fun times ahead.  Let me tickle your Kuchie 

Perfect!  Treadmill comes Monday so I can root for snow again.

[wxsniss]

Ensembles a hair southeast as well, good place to sit for SNE at this point

There's almost 3 apparent clusters... not surprisingly with the cluster near the BM having the deepest systems

[The 4 Seasons]

Me likey 0Z Euro

[moneypitmike]

06 GFS says hello.

[Damage In Tolland]

Making winter great again overnight runs 

[moneypitmike]

I expect the GFS will continue to make some ticks north.  I still think Pit2 might do better than Westborough.

[8611Blizz]

So the needle finally gets threaded ?

[HoarfrostHubb]

18 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I expect the GFS will continue to make some ticks north.  I still think Pit2 might do better than Westborough.

That would surprise me.  I do think the Pike area winds up doing well. 

[moneypitmike]

we'll see.  As goes Dendrite, so goes Pit2.