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Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ariof

ariof

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc is also shredded

TT is out to 96 for both the GFS and CMC. On the surface …

GFS is a 998 low over BNA
CMC is a 1004 low over PGV

That's only 500 miles.

Both now are grazing ACK, but the GFS at least gives a snowstorm to … someone.

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CT Rain
CT Rain

15.2" in West Hartford here at the station. Nuts.

RUNNAWAYICEBERG
RUNNAWAYICEBERG
Typhoon Tip
Typhoon Tip

You guys are acting like your on the spectrum with this shit at this point.  It's that bad - wtf

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted
Just now, CoastalWx said:

Probably a fronto crush near nyc to the cape 

I like how the h5 low closes off a bit as it moves offshore. A couple days ago it seemed like the thing was sort of shearing out and dampening some. 

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
Just now, weathafella said:

I thought with the trof going negative it and confluence moving east it would come further north.  I honestly think this is a Dendrite event.

Dendrite ? No way this is coming way north like that.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

I like how the h5 low closes off a bit as it moves offshore. A couple days ago it seemed like the thing was sort of shearing out and dampening some. 

GGEM still keeping it sheared and ugly. But that seems to be an outlier right now. The rest of guidance is keeping the southern stream separate and potent. 

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brooklynwx99

brooklynwx99

Posted
Posted
Just now, ORH_wxman said:

GGEM still keeping it sheared and ugly. But that seems to be an outlier right now. The rest of guidance is keeping the southern stream separate and potent. 

CMC has been so erratic this winter, but it's doing its best GFS impression with more confluence. the GFS has its finger on the pulse for some reason and has support from the 18z EPS

gem_z500_vort_us_fh84_trend.thumb.gif.b792666819cb831e28e98019b37aea01.gif

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

The confluence up north is def real…the question is whether the southern stream shortwave gets sheared out by “almost phasing” with the northern stream like the GGEM shows. 
 

Most other guidance doesn’t show that but the GGEM has been doing that quite a lot on the past few runs. 

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FXWX

FXWX

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll take the GFS right where it is.

I think the GFS has a reasonable trend both surface and aloft but I expect it's max qpf axis to adjust further north... Confluence trends are strongly arguing for a heck of fronto band setting up... I usually favor the fronto band to setup a bit further north than modeled at 5 days out.  

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