Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[Greg]

6 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

you know off hand what 13-14 was?

Enso Neutral Negative. (-0.4)

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Greg said:

 To me a 0.1-0.4 is Enso neutral positive, 0.5 is Beginning weak. 0.5-1.0 is Weak to Mod, 1.0 is solid Mod, 1.0-1.5 Mod - Strong, 1.5 Beging Strong, 1.5 - 2.0 Strong to very strong, and 2.0 + or higher Super/Extreme whatever floats one's boat for a description.

1.8ONI is undoubtedly strong.

[Greg]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1.8ONI is undoubtedly strong.

Of course it's strong. Strongest I have ever seen here is 2.5 Enso in the 2016 Winter. That was extreme on the scale.

[40/70 Benchmark]

42 minutes ago, Greg said:

Not sure 1.8 for an average is solid strong but moderate to strong for sure depending on the definition. But yes, Big East Coast storm for all the big I-95 cities and suburbia.

 

Just now, Greg said:

Of course it's strong.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Here is the EURO H7 fronto...just north of that is your death band.

[Greg]

4 minutes ago, Greg said:

Of course it's strong.

Misspoke. My bad on that. However, the rest of my statement are indeed correct.

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

 

[MJO812]

Icon eps southeast 

[HoarfrostHubb]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Here is the EURO H7 fronto...just north of that is your death band.

Hi

[Henry's Weather]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Here is the EURO H7 fronto...just north of that is your death band.

Lock it… 

Spent the day passing flyers around for a snow shoveling side gig, hopefully this event gets me a client base

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

1957-58 was strong with a monster in February and then the famous March 58. The one thing about March 58 is I was staring at 10-12 inches which was slushy on the roads making sledding on hard packed street snow/ice virtually impossible.

18" of wind-blown powder in February and 24" of paste.  My mother and 4 y.o. little brother were flying home on 3/19 and scheduled to switch airplanes at DCA for a dinner flight to EWR.  Snow at DCA and fog at EWR closed both, but they were able, barely, to land at (then) Idlewild.  She then had to haul 2 suitcases and an overtired and hungry kid into a taxi to Newark.  We got home before dz/fog turned to snow, but not by much.

[MJO812]

Gfs =)

[Snowcrazed71]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs =)

Is that good?

[snowemgee]

Is that good?

Smiley face...we take.

[RDRY]

Slow down that northern vort just a bit more, and it's game on for everyone.

[WeatherX]

It sped up to match the Euro and CMC, quick hitter

[George001]

Gfs a bit north from last run. I’d like to see that continue. 

[ORH_wxman]

Nice ML goodies for CT/RI/SE MA that run. Maybe even tickling the pike. 
 

Starting to get some movement toward the model consensus now on the outliers (ICON went south and GFS went north)

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nice ML goodies for CT/RI/SE MA that run. Maybe even tickling the pike. 
 

Starting to get some movement toward the model consensus now on the outliers (ICON went south and GFS went north)

Looking pretty good today. 

[brooklynwx99]

you can pretty much think as the GFS as a southern member of the EPS. it's in the envelope now... not really an outlier like it was yesterday evening

[cleetussnow]

[radarman]

Keep it south til the Nam gets into range

[NotSureWeather]

Too bad it’s moving so quickly. 

[Damage In Tolland]

24 hour storm 

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Looking pretty good today. 

Yeah I’m slightly surprised at where it is right now. Expected it to be further north but there’s plenty of time for trends…1/7 was a southern streamer that juiced back north in the final 84h. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

48 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Hi

I feel like this will be a south of Pike event. Let’s see how models look tomorrow but I’m planning on a light event up this way.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I feel like this will be a south of Pike event. Let’s see how models look tomorrow but I’m planning on a light event up this way.

I wouldn’t throw in the towel yet there. You might be in a good spot when we’re looking at this on Sunday. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I’m slightly surprised at where it is right now. Expected it to be further north but there’s plenty of time for trends…1/7 was a southern streamer that juiced back north in the final 84h. 

Man, gimme some 1/7...

[SnowGoose69]

CIPS sure loves many events that bullseyed Philly or C-S NJ.  I would not be surprised with an end result where BDL gets smashed or Philly does and BDL sees cirrus...its really still possible anything in that range happens

[SouthCoastMA]

Maybe this can trend to a 1/21/12 type storm if confluence trends stronger but yeah I still expect this to move north in the final 96 hours

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

CIPS sure loves many events that bullseyed Philly or C-S NJ.  I would not be surprised with an end result where BDL gets smashed or Philly does and BDL sees cirrus...its really still possible anything in that range happens

CIPS is based off the 12z GFS today…so the analogs are going to have a lot of suppressed systems.