Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Greg said:

Not happening this winter. Take what you can get in this strong El Nino.

Most strong el Nino winters have a KU....

[weatherwiz]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Most strong el Nino winters have a KU....

It still boggles my mind, even after all the discussion this summer, how some still think that a strong EL Nino mean no snow or little snow. We have had strong EL Nino's with plenty of snow. There are also plenty of EL Nino's with lots of snow and plenty with little snow. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It still boggles my mind, even after all the discussion this summer, how some still think that a strong EL Nino mean no snow or little snow. We have had strong EL Nino's with plenty of snow. There are also plenty of EL Nino's with lots of snow and plenty with little snow. 

Preconceived notions are data resistant....just like the crap about the volcano making for a very storng PV...I researched it last summer and cited several reasons why that wouldn't be the case, but 'alas...

[Greg]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Most strong el Nino winters have a KU....

Not sure I agree totally with that. '78 was a week el nino, '69 was a moderate, 2005 weak, 2015 weak. Only Feb 1983 was strong.

[40/70 Benchmark]

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Greg said:

Not sure I agree totally with that. '78 was a week el nino, '69 was a moderate, 2005 weak, 2015 week. Only Feb 1983 was strong.

2010, 1983, 1966, 1958

You are deflecting the issue....yes, weak el Nino is better....no one argued that. But you implied that it doesn't happen in strong el Nino, which is different and incorrect.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Even 1997 had a fairly localized, but extremely intense winter storm in SNE just before XMAS. The only strong el Nino seasons that had no major snows were 1973 and 1992. 2016 grazed SNE, but was epic in the mid atl.

[Greg]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks somewhat similar to the swath the January 6-7 storm brought us earlier. 

[512high]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Boy Ray, that would be great for everyone , just saw a motorcycle drive by my shop......dear god

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, 512high said:

oy Ray, that would be great for everyone , just saw a motorcycle drive by my shop......dear god

Kind of like the 12z UK yesterday.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 512high said:

oy Ray, that would be great for everyone , just saw a motorcycle drive by my shop......dear god

Was that Eric Fisher?

[Greg]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2010, 1983, 1966, 1958

You are deflecting the issue....yes, weak el Nino is better....no one argued that. But you implied that it doesn't happen in strong el Nino, which is different and incorrect.

I did indicate 1983 as you saw I stated. Depends upon one's definition of a big storm. and what area coverage. 

[mreaves]

1 minute ago, 512high said:

oy Ray, that would be great for everyone , just saw a motorcycle drive by my shop......dear god

I beg to differ, that would not be great for everyone.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, Greg said:

Looks somewhat similar to the swath the January 6-7 storm brought us earlier. 

Despite all peregrinations ... enough similarities to make us ponder how much the patterns really changed...

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Was that Eric Fisher?

I don't normally make comments of this nature but ... can we lose the mustache ?

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Greg said:

I did indicate 1983 as you saw I stated. Depends upon one's definition of a big storm. and what area coverage. 

This is a great point, but this also raises conflict. If you're discussing this stuff taking a scientific approach, you can't have a million definitions and criteria otherwise there is just mass confusion. I suppose though having a ton of different definitions is fine, but the criteria needs to be established and there also needs to be sound reasoning. 

[Greg]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Despite all peregrinations ... enough similarities to make us ponder how much the patterns really changed...

Correct! Thank you sir. 

[iceman1]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2010, 1983, 1966, 1958

You are deflecting the issue....yes, weak el Nino is better....no one argued that. But you implied that it doesn't happen in strong el Nino, which is different and incorrect.

i was born in 58 i remember all the snow 

[brooklynwx99]

put some more coherent thoughts here, check them out if you'd like. they're still applicable to you guys

[NEPASnow]

23 minutes ago, Greg said:

Not sure I agree totally with that. '78 was a week el nino, '69 was a moderate, 2005 weak, 2015 weak. Only Feb 1983 was strong.

this is only strong by sea surface temps and nothing else, this was a weak-mod el nino based on soi

[weathafella]

48 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Euro says Let's drift the shit out of this snow for a week straight. Heavy winds and low  below zero dews and fresh snow with wind chills near 0 and teens for a week. Let's massive drift this bitch.

Our new treadmill gets delivered Monday so bring it.  I timed the pattern for when it should be harder to exercise outdoors.

[Greg]

12 minutes ago, NEPASnow said:

this is only strong by sea surface temps and nothing else, this was a weak-mod el nino based on soi

I still mostly use the traditional average ONI's for the main determinant variable. However, the other variables such as the SOI and so forth can help to modify/subvert certain elements in a strong El Nino winter where one can "Buck the trend' in certain circumstances.

[weathafella]

1957-58 was strong with a monster in February and then the famous March 58. The one thing about March 58 is I was staring at 10-12 inches which was slushy on the roads making sledding on hard packed street snow/ice virtually impossible.

[Greg]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

1957-58 was strong with a monster in February and then the famous March 58. The one thing about March 58 is I was staring at 10-12 inches which was slushy on the roads making sledding on hard packed street snow/ice virtually impossible.

Not sure 1.8 for an average is solid strong but moderate to strong for sure depending on the definition. But yes, Big East Coast storm for all the big I-95 cities and suburbia.

[The 4 Seasons]

Someone requested the EC Narcan earlier, zoomed out a bit

[40/70 Benchmark]

32 minutes ago, Greg said:

Not sure 1.8 for an average is solid strong but moderate to strong for sure depending on the definition. But yes, Big East Coast storm for all the big I-95 cities and suburbia.

What??

You are the only person alive for sure...

[The 4 Seasons]

1 hour ago, Greg said:

Not sure I agree totally with that. '78 was a week el nino, '69 was a moderate, 2005 weak, 2015 weak. Only Feb 1983 was strong.

you know off hand what 13-14 was?

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

you know off hand what 13-14 was?

Negative Neutral 

Then we had a weak Nino in 2014-15

[ORH_wxman]

18z icon still pretty amped but not as much as 12z. Not a big surprise given it was the northern outlier on the 12z suite. 

[Greg]

 To me a 0.1-0.4 is Enso neutral positive, 0.5 is Beginning weak. 0.5-1.0 is Weak to Mod, 1.0 is solid Mod, 1.0-1.5 Mod - Strong, 1.5 Beging Strong, 1.5 - 2.0 Strong to very strong, and 2.0 + or higher Super/Extreme whatever floats one's boat for a description.