Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[40/70 Benchmark]

First Call:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/02/beautiful-weekend-followed-by-modest.html

[CoastalWx]

1-3" has been the first and only call here since December 2022 lol. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Not too bad

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[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Not too bad

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Terrible. 

[WinterWolf]

40 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe, possibly, kinda, sorta.....let’s see?

I’m being honest, I don’t think we’ve seen the real scenario yet.  So ya, at this point, one doesn’t know what is legit, or what is a mirage. Pieces aren’t sampled, so all you can do is reasonably hedge. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Not too bad

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Pretty similar to my first map, but who knows...

[brooklynwx99]

pretty distinct trend to separate the two streams over the last two model cycles, increasing confluence later on

[weatherwiz]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

just a note... the GFS is farther south because it has more confluence from the northern stream, not because it's less amplified. it's actually way more amped with the southern stream than the ECMWF

so, although it's farther south, it doesn't seem to be due to its typical bias. for the record, I still think it's wrong, but it has a bit more validity this time since the differences between it and the other models is actually pretty small, and the northern stream can absolutely destructively interfere instead of phasing

I think confluence is going to end up being a large factor in the evolution/outcome of this.

[MJO812]

Gfs and cmc coming in slightly more flatter due to more confluence.

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

pretty distinct trend to separate the two streams over the last two model cycles, increasing confluence later on

You know dude... what's happening there ( imho ) is that the ridging over the Pac NW/B.C. region is actually growing, but doing so at the same rate as the N/stream S/W is actually attenuating in time.  

It's like we're creating the scaffolding for a better phase result, but the N/stream S/W relay from ...where ever that is originating being weaker and weaker, there's no diving wind max enough to "take advantage of it".

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I think confluence is going to end up being a large factor in the evolution/outcome of this.

I don't see much of a path to a big snow event for SNE...I feel like its another game of #pickapork...which porking would you like, ie in which direction would you like to be bent? its either going to phase and hit NNE, or not phase/succumb to confluence and be a pedestrian event squashed to the south with insuffficent dynamics to overcome a crap antecedent airmass.

[Spanks45]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I think confluence is going to end up being a large factor in the evolution/outcome of this.

GFS might end up winning this one in the end....still out of Nam range, so plenty of time

[MJO812]

Cmc has way more confluence

[Chrisrotary12]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't see much of a path to a big snow event for SNE...I feel like its another game of #pickapork...which porking would you like, ie in which direction would you like to be bent? its either going to phase and hit NNE, or not phase/succumb to confluence and be a pedestrian event squashed to the south with insuffficent dynamics to overcome a crap antecedent airmass.

So #NoChanges. Consistently finding ways to not snow. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

So #NoChanges. Consistently finding ways to not snow. 

Oh, it will snow....just enough to get the sanders out and ruin the Tuesday AM commute.

[CoastalWx]

Actually a decent airmass feeding into this on the GFS thanks to confluence.

[Prismshine Productions]

GFS might actually be a bit more amped than 6z looking at the heights toggle over the region

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[brooklynwx99]

jesus

brick wall of confluence. SNE about to get smoked

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't see much of a path to a big snow event for SNE...I feel like its another game of #pickapork...which porking would you like, ie in which direction would you like to be bent? its either going to phase and hit NNE, or not face/succumb to confluence and be a pedestrian event squashed to the south with insuffficent dynamics to overcome a crap antecedent airmass.

I agree with this, I think its either a dumping for NNE or we see a southern track with light snows/accumulations into the region. People need to be really careful with this one and focus on the confluence and forget the model snow maps (and I'm serious with this one). This reminds me a bit of a setup in 2018 I think it was (not saying the setup is similar) where QPF/snow maps were destroying us, even a day or two out, and confluence won. I remember some forecasts for southern CT were like 10-18'' (maybe even more) and we got like 2-3'' in Danbury when I was at school. 

Just now, Spanks45 said:

GFS might end up winning this one in the end....still out of Nam range, so plenty of time

I have a feeling no one model is truly going to win this one. There has already been so much spread from run-to-run and model-to-model. While this isn't anything new for this stage of the game, I think it's something we continue to see until we're within inside 2 days. I am not sure how the NAM will handle this, but I would suspect it will be the worst of them all (I guess that isn't saying much though).

[JKEisMan]

Gfs not backing down.. yet

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

jesus

brick wall of confluence. SNE about to get smoked

That will run into a brick wall.

[MJO812]

DC snowstorm on gfs

 

 

 

Cmc much flatter also compared to 0z

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

I agree with this, I think its either a dumping for NNE or we see a southern track with light snows/accumulations into the region. People need to be really careful with this one and focus on the confluence and forget the model snow maps (and I'm serious with this one). This reminds me a bit of a setup in 2018 I think it was (not saying the setup is similar) where QPF/snow maps were destroying us, even a day or two out, and confluence won. I remember some forecasts for southern CT were like 10-18'' (maybe even more) and we got like 2-3'' in Danbury when I was at school. 

I have a feeling no one model is truly going to win this one. There has already been so much spread from run-to-run and model-to-model. While this isn't anything new for this stage of the game, I think it's something we continue to see until we're within inside 2 days. I am not sure how the NAM will handle this, but I would suspect it will be the worst of them all (I guess that isn't saying much though).

I think that was the first event in March 2018...I know the first one in that parade was a bust, but it may have been due to rain.

[jbenedet]

GFS is a lot slower than the EPS. 

It isn't at all buying an earlier phase, but a second vort in northern stream looks liable to hook up while over eastern conus. If not now, then in future runs.

[dendrite]

Good run. Need a little more confluence to get the cirrus south of here. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think that was the first event in March 2018...I know the first one in that parade was a bust, but it may have been due to rain.

yeah you might be right on that...March 2018. I remember I was in my final semester and I graduated Dec 2018. Long Island got destroyed in that one...I think they got like 18-24'' across the north shore. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, JKEisMan said:

Gfs not backing down.. yet

Just waiting for Charlie Brown to get reeeeaallly close to the football

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That will run into a brick wall.

yeah I was not expecting it to really dig in like that. CMC did trend in that direction, just not as extreme

[RDRY]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

jesus

brick wall of confluence. SNE about to get smoked

Smoked with cirrus ... sorry, couldn't resist.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Nice storm!  For Baltimore and the fish