Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

All trash. None provided a confident forecast 

Isn’t this kind of how you and Freak and NNE sometimes get a foot from what looked like mainly a minor deal? The fronto forcing along H7 that was poorly modeled 

[JC-CT]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

All trash. None provided a confident forecast 

 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, TalcottWx said:

It looks like it might be coming together for a lot of E MA peeps. It'll be very close. 

Interior SE MA for sure will clean up…it’s gonna be close where I am right on the pike (technically a few miles south)…radar def looking better with each passing frame. If I crack 6” I can’t be too disappointed after yesterday, but I won’t lie that it will be a little annoying if I get like 7” and someone not too far SE gets over a foot. 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

What an eye-gouge 

A rude awakening for ACK weenies this morning 

[Modfan2]

I’m in some bright banding here lol! In all seriousness I have the chance to double my season total of 8” and not there to see it.

 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, JC-CT said:

 

If you had to pick a “winner”, the RGEM is a good candidate. In an absolute sense it still struggled but it had the smallest swings compared to other models and I don’t think it showed a whiff inside of 48 hours like the Ukie did multiple times. 

[MuddyWx]

Boston might hit 4" 

[Damage In Tolland]

I think many of us south of 90 are going to approach a foot. Some may exceed 

[PWMan]

I don't know if I can remember an instance like this where snow is being shunted south of me while my temp sits above freezing. Nothing makes sense anymore. Anyway, congrats to SNE - well overdue.

[moneypitmike]

Really lightened up.  Hopefully it reinvigorateslest I fall short of the lie-end 3 in my p/c

[TalcottWx]

Boston is going to get crushed. 

[JC-CT]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

If you had to pick a “winner”, the RGEM is a good candidate. In an absolute sense it still struggled but it had the smallest swings compared to other models and I don’t think it showed a whiff inside of 48 hours like the Ukie did multiple times. 

Yeah not perfect by any means, but when you compare to other models at 72 hours out, the Canadian suite is hands down the winner. GFS and Euro both had 1" qpf up to about Dendrite. GGEM/RGEM blend will come close to verifying.

[jbenedet]

2 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

Boston might hit 4" 

38/33

Rain.

 

[ackwaves]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

A rude awakening for ACK weenies this morning 

Not really. Ive been thinking mostly rain all along. Maybe 2” of paste at the end. 

[TalcottWx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Interior SE MA for sure will clean up…it’s gonna be close where I am right on the pike (technically a few miles south)…radar def looking better with each passing frame. If I crack 6” I can’t be too disappointed after yesterday, but I won’t lie that it will be a little annoying if I get like 7” and someone not too far SE gets over a foot. 

Completely fair and understandable, I'm so happy compared to what we thought may happen just 12 hours ago. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

Boston might hit 4" 

They’ll be lucky to get 2”

[Hoth]

Spectacular snow growth in this band. We’re slamming downtown now. 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Isn’t this kind of how you and Freak and NNE sometimes get a foot from what looked like mainly a minor deal? The fronto forcing along H7 that was poorly modeled 

Pretty much. You can usually pick out where the fronto will be with some midlevel analysis, but QPF wise it’s usually underdone. And then you also have the bonus that it’s usually high ratio so long as your 2m temps are cold enough. I even had big ratios in Halloweenie. So there’s multiple ways to bust in a positive way. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, JC-CT said:

Yeah not perfect by any means, but when you compare to other models at 72 hours out, the Canadian suite is hands down the winner. GFS and Euro both had 1" qpf up to about Dendrite. GGEM/RGEM blend will come close to verifying.

But by Sunday we knew Dendrite area was out of it..no?  And SNE was the ground zero. Then Monday afternoon happened. 

[Damage In Tolland]

We’ve had 1-3” hour rates since like 4:45 when it started 

[cleetussnow]

11 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

There's some revisionist history going on.

The gfs like the euro had this storm wrong for days on end, over a hundred miles north of where it is now. I don't know why you would celebrate any model in this situation.

If it's just because you are giddy that it's snowing, then you do you.

Not entirely fair…yesterday the Euro utterly shit the bed while the GFS held steady.  That was less than 24 hrs ago.  Yesterdays 12z Euro hardly looks anything like the storm happening outside now.  A fail like that inside 24 hrs is more than a blemish.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Really lightened up.  Hopefully it reinvigorateslest I fall short of the lie-end 3 in my p/c

I think you’re gonna beat 3”…I’m starting to get into heavy snow now with that band just about here and the stuff to the west looks pretty healthy  it’s going to collapses ESE at some point but that shouldn’t happen until closer to midday 

 

 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, ackwaves said:

Not really. Ive been thinking mostly rain all along. Maybe 2” of paste at the end. 

 Not a WWF fan in the 80s and 90s?

[Mj-pvd]

Still dumping massive flakes in pvd,  went to get a coffee and it’s ugly out,  car completely covered in less than 5 min.  

[FRWEATHA]

It’s pounding here now but it’s still struggling to accumulate on warmer surfaces.

[LSC97wxnut]

Flakes trying to mix in, but still 37.2*

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

But by Sunday we knew Dendrite area was out of it..no?  And SNE was the ground zero. Then Monday afternoon happened. 

Not by 0z Sunday, no

[ariof]

6 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Boston is going to get crushed. 

Boston has to change from RA to SN first

[WinterWolf]

Just now, JC-CT said:

Not by 0z Sunday, no

Well that’s Saturday night technically..I meant Sunday during the day. 

[CoastalWx]

Flakes trying to mix in here