Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[TalcottWx]

Game on? I am very excited what I'm seeing on radar. I think up to Rt 2 and maybe NH border east of 91 it's full speed ahead. 

[NotSureWeather]

I may have stayed up all night comparing radar to model runs and realized at like 1 am that it was coming reasonably far north.

[NotSureWeather]

I’m legit watching it change to snow and I just saw the biggest snowflake it was like a baseball.

[TalcottWx]

  On 2/13/2024 at 11:07 AM, Kitz Craver said:

3.5” down so far hammering in Meriden

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Omg I wasn't over exaggerating then. I'd say almost an inch fell in a half hour here. I walked to car and sat there for a few and "get things I forgot for the room". Aka well thought out plan to go out at a good time prior to delivery. 

[NotSureWeather]

  On 2/13/2024 at 5:37 AM, NotSureWeather said:

Pretty big blowup of moisture in southern PA. Don’t really see that modeled anywhere. 

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I at least know how to look at colors and tell which way they are going.

[WinterWolf]

  On 2/13/2024 at 11:08 AM, NotSureWeather said:

I may have stayed up all night comparing radar to model runs and realized at like 1 am that it was coming reasonably far north.

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And that’s for SURE.  Nice observations though…looks like you were correct. 

[Cold Miser]

No obs page, so I guess this is it.

Surprised to see the warning still up after the trends and depression in here last night. 

About 2" here so far.

[TalcottWx]

NYC weenies suicide watch, imo. 

I'm watching Ch 3 cameras near the shoreline and there's not much happening down there. That's worrisome for south coastal areas. 

BOS is going to get crushed. Whatever happened on models was wrong.

 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

  On 2/13/2024 at 10:55 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

I truly went to bed thinking it was a complete skunk . Tossed and turned half the night so angry. Cannot believe what I am seeing 

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Same reaction here, going from one foot expectations Sunday night to hoping to get enough to cover the grass by Monday night, to now 5 inches otg with moderate to heavy snow.

It's been aggravating but I'd rather have it this way then expecting a foot and waking up to almost nothing.

[TalcottWx]

I'm looking at LWX radar down in the dmv. Judging by what I saw on models, I'm guessing the low is more amped and north vs modeled. I'm not certain though. 

[dan11295]

Not ready to bite on seeing warning snows here north of the pike yet. Along the pike seems very possible esp with the late bump back north.

[Damage In Tolland]

[NotSureWeather]

  On 2/13/2024 at 11:14 AM, TalcottWx said:

I'm looking at LWX radar down in the dmv. Judging by what I saw on models, I'm guessing the low is more amped and north vs modeled. I'm not certain though. 

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That’s basically exactly what happened. What was modeled for days was what was real. We all just fell for the head fake I think.

[Patrick-02540]

Went outside to measure...just over 3 already.  Massive incoming poundage.  

[Bryan63]

Ground and cars have quick coating. Roads and hard surfaces will take a while at 33.3 degrees and starting off as heavy rain.

 

Definitely cooler to start than I was expecting but will see how much we're able to cool down to really help with any growth.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 2/13/2024 at 11:12 AM, TalcottWx said:

NYC weenies suicide watch, imo. 

I'm watching Ch 3 cameras near the shoreline and there's not much happening down there. That's worrisome for south coastal areas. 

BOS is going to get crushed. Whatever happened on models was wrong.

 

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It's too warm in Mid-town urban heat effect.. best banding so far is just inland 2-4.5" widespread from merritt parkway to rt 84.. 4.5" new fairfield .. 8-11am should crush along shore .. 

Also with several 3"+ reports I won the bet against @qg_omega

[WinterWolf]

  On 2/13/2024 at 11:15 AM, NotSureWeather said:

That’s basically exactly what happened. What was modeled for days was what was real. We all just fell for the head fake I think.

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Take the Euro, and burn that POS to the ground.  What a shit performance…PERIOD. 

[NotSureWeather]

Rain is holding on for dear life.

[TalcottWx]

  On 2/13/2024 at 11:15 AM, NotSureWeather said:

That’s basically exactly what happened. What was modeled for days was what was real. We all just fell for the head fake I think.

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It's impossible to know either way. These are things that can only be forecasted with decades of experience and knowledge. 

I was watching the local broadcast, and thinking how valuable Harvey Leonard was in this exact type of situation. 

We can only work with what we are given to work with. Every single model trended south.

However, as Scott pointed out, and I said last night, mid levels always looked good for CT. Anyone who had a full on freak out (a) didn't look (b) is a qpf rip and read queen. 

CT has been in the game and was never out of the game. Maybe Kent. 

[TalcottWx]

  On 2/13/2024 at 11:17 AM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It's too warm in Mid-town urban heat effect.. best banding so far is just inland 2-4.5" widespread from merritt parkway to rt 84.. 4.5" new fairfield .. 8-11am should crush along shore .. 

Also with several 3"+ reports I won the bet against @qg_omega

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YOU LOVE TO SEE IT. 

Meteorology, not modelogy. 

[WinterWolf]

  On 2/13/2024 at 11:17 AM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It's too warm in Mid-town urban heat effect.. best banding so far is just inland 2-4.5" widespread from merritt parkway to rt 84.. 4.5" new fairfield .. 8-11am should crush along shore .. 

Also with several 3"+ reports I won the bet against @qg_omega

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Him and the Pope massive fail.  Horrible on their part. Notice, no sign of them. 

[JC-CT]

Fascinating

[butterfish55]

Really surprised to wake up to steady snow and covered grass. Radar looks awesome for me and Brett's area (we live about 4 miles apart). Storm cancel cancel?

[TalcottWx]

Right now I think Hartford, Litchfield New Haven, Fairfield, Tolland counties are most favored in terms of a jack. It looks like we're going to get a pivot right over northern Hartford county area. 

[NotSureWeather]

25 bucks to the good guys. Love to see it.

[dendrite]

Nice to see some getting snow. The fronto look was always there…even with the squashed/less phased trend. 

[Bryan63]

  On 2/13/2024 at 11:21 AM, butterfish55 said:

Really surprised to wake up to steady snow and covered grass. Radar looks awesome for me and Brett's area (we live about 4 miles apart). Storm cancel cancel?

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Likely not too far from you both. I'm over in Middleboro center.

[WalpoleJoe]

Raining here in Walpole on my way to the office. Feels like an occasional icy pellet mixed in

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 2/13/2024 at 11:19 AM, TalcottWx said:

YOU LOVE TO SEE IT. 

Meteorology, not modelogy. 

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I sucked this storm I must admit, our bet is from late January on no snow over 3" anywhere in New England before Valentines Day.. He was 48 hours off.. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Persistent fronto band just south of 84 wont quit