Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[8611Blizz]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

CT and RI are going to get some accumulating snow tomorrow, the rest of us in SNE, outside of Cape Cod, are SOL.

Yeah I know some models have Boston at about 2" but the dynamics are pretty bad and the temps are garbage.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

CT and RI are going to get some accumulating snow tomorrow, the rest of us in SNE, outside of Cape Cod, are SOL.

Ya if I can shag me 4” tomorrow I’ll consider it a win. This morning I was in the 12-18” area on the NWS snowfall map.  Infuriating. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya if I can shag me 4” tomorrow I’ll consider it a win. This morning I was in the 12-18” area on the NWS snowfall map.  Infuriating. 

Ya I feel the same 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya I feel the same 

Maddening.  Gotta just choke it down and move on.  Faaak. 

[Ginx snewx]

Interesting movement N mesos. Went from .4 HRRR to .8 in 2 runs still snowing 

[Ginx snewx]

Nice to see qpf going back up here. A 6 to 8 works

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Interesting movement N mesos. Went from .4 HRRR to .8 in 2 runs still snowing 

Smiling to the end . Hoping In your locale you see solid 6-8 still 

[78Blizzard]

Both the 03 RAP and HRRR show 1"/hr rates here between 10-2, so we could still get 6" here.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Interesting movement N mesos. Went from .4 HRRR to .8 in 2 runs still snowing 

Ya that’s a jump…

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Interesting movement N mesos. Went from .4 HRRR to .8 in 2 runs still snowing 

Unless that all comes down very heavy, I wouldn’t expect much. All kinds of temp and boundary layer issues. With the sink south, we’ve also lost the dynamics 

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Unless that all comes down very heavy, I wouldn’t expect much. All kinds of temp and boundary layer issues. With the sink south, we’ve also lost the dynamics 

Thanks for the Met lesson Brett.

[DavisStraight]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nice to see qpf going back up here. A 6 to 8 works

You should do decent, north of you not so much.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Thanks for the Met lesson Brett.

Ryan said that he feels it’s gonna come down pretty good in central and southern CT(Along and south of 84).  I guess we’ll see how this plays out very soon. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Thanks for the Met lesson Brett.

Here to help.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Ryan said that he feels it’s gonna come down pretty good in central and southern CT(Along and south of 84).  I guess we’ll see how this plays out very soon. 

With .8 qpf in 5 hrs I would say Brett's hypothesis is incorrect 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Ukie got much worse for SE mass /PYm

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

00z UKMET with an interesting solution? Not sure if that's a Pivotal issue or not.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Confluence kills big time on this one

 

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

00z UKMET QPF because I'm pretty sure something broke in the snow algorithm.

[WinterWolf]

27 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Anthony in NYC said to Jerry on Friday that this wasn’t going to be a Dendrite Jack, due to the confluence being to strong, he was correct.  Little did he know at the time however, that he’d end up getting the Winter Storm Warning in NYC, and Dendrite would get shut out.   Crazy turn of events for so many in SNE. 

 

[CT Valley Snowman]

Not really feeling good about things up here 2 miles from the mass border in CT.  Hopefully those further south cash in with at least a decent period of snow.  

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just weaker south shredded all the way out to Nova Scotia QPF was pressed down from prior run 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Interesting movement N mesos. Went from .4 HRRR to .8 in 2 runs still snowing 

Regardless, terrible model performance at close range on this one.   Hopefully you can pull 4"+ there and good luck to all of the far SNE and NYC peeps.  All way overdue for a pasting.

[DavisStraight]

1 minute ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

Not really feeling good about things up here 2 miles from the mass border in CT.  Hopefully those further south cash in with at least a decent period of snow.  

I think we get 2-4.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Confluence kills big time on this one

 

Confluence without a strong high over Quebec or any polar air to speak of.  N stream just didn't show up at the playground for this one.  It was always thread the needle, so fascinating meteorology if nothing else.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Take a big breathe Men, this is a rug pull storm they suck . Life in life don’t whine why this one hurts you harder . It’s not your livelihood on line for the storm . Until garbage spring season arrives we watch models again and push the F on . It’s whether we deal with it. 

[8611Blizz]

He still split Boston with the zones but the south trend continues

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

6 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

00z UKMET with an interesting solution? Not sure if that's a Pivotal issue or not.

No, there just is no dynamics like I was just saying. So the .3 of so of qpf here is basically just slop/white rain.

[The 4 Seasons]

3 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

00z UKMET QPF because I'm pretty sure something broke in the snow algorithm.

interesting, def a more W - E oriented axis of qpf than the 12z which was SW to NE. this run is slightly better for the southern half of CT

[CT Valley Snowman]

2 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

I think we get 2-4.

Some of the mesos are pretty paltry, especially further west back this way. Hopefully you're right.  Earlier today we were headed to the buffet and now we're just hoping for scraps.