Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[Kitz Craver]

15 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Pretty funny seeing these SNE weenies wanting to sell the GFS at 6z after hugging it at 0z 

IMO it just shows that the southeast trend could be real. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Let’s hope the Ukie verifies 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

IMO it just shows that the southeast trend could be real. 

It sure could, but at this stage anything can be real.  Modeling jumping around more than a kangaroo. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Sometimes I have release these things earlier than I would like to because I have two jobs, 3 kids under the age of 5 and a wife

[17iceman]

Let’s hope the Ukie verifies 

Has the Ukie ever verified?


.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, 17iceman said:

Has the Ukie ever verified?


.

Only when it snows 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah EPS mean looked nice. 

GEM really trended towards the EURO with an even later phase....not unexpected. Thankfully, just in time to nail Sydney, NS again.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

24 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Pretty funny seeing these SNE weenies wanting to sell the GFS at 6z after hugging it at 0z 

Pretty funny you lack reading comprehension. Literally not one person bought 0z gfs and is selling the 6z. We know exactly your call that no one outside of the NNE mountains will snow so we’ll see how it plays out. Make sure you come back at verification. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Pretty funny you lack reading comprehension. Literally not one person bought 0z gfs and is selling the 6z. We know exactly your call that no one outside of the NNE mountains will snow so we’ll see how it plays out. Make sure you come back at verification. 

He likes to forecast the opposite of what everyone thinks and/or wants. Pretty predicatable.

[jbenedet]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Pretty funny you lack reading comprehension. Literally not one person bought 0z gfs and is selling the 6z. We know exactly your call that no one outside of the NNE mountains will snow so we’ll see how it plays out. Make sure you come back at verification. 

Triggered.

and a liar. 
 

Had no idea I even made a call. lol.
 

Not only does the guy read minds, he makes up their mind for them.

 

[EMontpelierWhiteout]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He likes to forecast the opposite of what everyone thinks and/or wants. Pretty predicatable.

I’d love NNE mountain jackpot to verify. 

[jbenedet]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He likes to forecast the opposite of what everyone thinks and/or wants. Pretty predicatable.

 

That is an impossibility. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

 

That is an impossibility. 

The majority.

EPS lost most of the Maine coast huggers...I count 4 inland members over SNE remaining.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Track isn't the only consideration...less phasing also means a more marginal temp profile, as well.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The majority.

EPS lost most of the Maine coast huggers.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Triggered.

and a liar. 
 

Had no idea I even made a call. lol.
 

Not only does the guy read minds, he makes up their mind for them.

 

There is only one liar among us. Keep going. Your reputation is impeccable. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Yeh; no kiddin'.

The teles scream amped solution. This one looks like poor timing in a good longwave pattern. 

The Northern stream looks like it will phase early, and cleanly with the southern stream over the central US. The southern stream vort is also amped, early on out west. The building PNA ridge allows the northern stream to drop right into the central plains. Kaboom.

I'm worried about warm sectoring into SE northern new england.  This thing is gonna crank. Too much of a good thing, for most.

 

19 hours ago, jbenedet said:

For S&G's..

 

975/984 location right near PSM/PWM, is my bet at this point. And 975 good baseline in terms of intensity at that location.

While not a forecast per se, its certainly enough to glean which way you are leaning. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You said yesterday you favored a 970s MB low off of the coast of Portsmouth and mainly rain for SNE.

The thing is I don’t disagree this is precarious for SoP and mostly an interior hit but the dude’s inability to adequately engage is nauseating. Not one person last night was humping the 0z gfs and then tossed the 6z. I know the overnight crew lol. 

[Ginx snewx]

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sometimes I have release these things earlier than I would like to because I have two jobs, 3 kids under the age of 5 and a wife

You obviously release early 

[CoastalWx]

6z EPS congrats Dendrite

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6z EPS congrats Dendrite

Yea, I think we are establishing goal posts with these EPS vacillations.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Pretty similar to the 12z EPS, just less spread.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I think we are establishing goal posts with these EPS vacillations.

Brutal 6Z even Brian might have issues.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You obviously release early 

Pot-kettle...don't you have like 7 kids?

[Hazey]

Blend the models for now. Track still looks good. Everyone still in the game. Too far in the distance to be micro analyzing every model, every run. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Blend the models for now. Track still looks good. Everyone still in the game. Too far in the distance to be micro analyzing every model, every run. 

I think this is illuminating.

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Pretty funny seeing these SNE weenies wanting to sell the GFS at 6z after hugging it at 0z 

Who??? 

You seem to be the only one set up on one final solution. 

It's pretty self explanatory that there is not a consensus with the models. 

C'mon man... You are acting like the biggest weenie of them all

[40/70 Benchmark]

Def. gonna go again and publish first look today....this forecast isn't rocket science IMO.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i'd probably lean towards a ECMWF/UKMET blend at this point, makes the most sense. CMC looks too diffuse and rainy while the GFS is likely too far south

Fwiw, the Euro and UK are a better fit for the +d(PNA).  

In fact ... there's only been a couple model cycles out of the last several day's worth that really fit the general index manifold  This entire erstwhile handling has been rather depressingly conserved. Always on the low-end representation of the correlation.   I wonder if the EPS is attempting, though. .. I see the 0z mean with a sub 988 at D5.5 pretty well nucleated to the the proper climate location; and it still has those spread members indicating bomb depths or close to it.  Not sure if some of those individual members have more N/stream involvement but probably.

The 00z Euro operational was the best current compromised solution between the index argument, vs the lack-representation in the guidance.   A low in the process of deepening below 985 mb while sliding under L.I. in route to just SE of ACK, with the 850 mb isotherms S of PVD ...   Boy, the index imply a major - if only. 

 

[ORH_wxman]

So GFS/GEFS are a whiff/near-whiff while the 06z EPS is ripping the low into LI. Glad to see we've cleared up everything.