Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[Prismshine Productions]

Nothing like a busted forecast to attract the flies.

Seems like a golden rule unfortunately

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[NotSureWeather]

1 minute ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Might be referring to me? Not sure.

He is referring to you and someone else but still not necessary.

[Typhoon Tip]

Technically, it’s not a bust because we know it’s happening ahead of time? When I was young, a bust was always waking up in the morning the storm, and having it be not storming. 

yeah I guess relative to standards of todays modeling maybe. I dunno. 

I really think this requires some kind of analysis research to figure out what happened I mean this is a pretty serious indictment. I bet you the UKMET is right for the wrong reasons.
 

 

[WinterWolf]

I don’t blame Ray…he spends hrs and hrs on these long range outlooks…he needs to reconsider the endeavor next year imo. Especially when you have a young family and all.  Just take what comes…nothing more one can do anyway.  Forget all the research and analogs, way too much time for very little return.  Atmosphere just sits back and laughs at us. 
 

And to be honest…this is worse than Feb of 89. I remember that still like it was yesterday. That sucked bad.  But being we are 35 yrs later, and all the supposed improvements, this is way worse.  I think we should go back to not starting threads to quite close in.  Everything up until(well 18 hrs now it seems), is just BS anyway.  

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Technically, it’s not a bust because we know it’s happening ahead of time? When I was young, a bust was always waking up in the morning the storm, and having it be not storming. 

yeah I guess relative to standards of todays modeling maybe. I dunno. 

I really think this requires some kind of analysis research to figure out what happened I mean this is a pretty serious indictment. I bet you the UKMET is right for the wrong reasons.
 

 

Correct.

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Correct.

It’s definitely relative to the times and expectations of today’s modeling vs. 30 years ago when the internet was just starting to transfer information to the public.  Those days were so naive, even for forecasters.

[subdude]

44 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

We'll remember this one for a while

That is absolutely nuts.

[dmcginvt]

As someone that lived in Methuen during the good years of 2000-2003, i feel for Ray.  But I have also live in Vermont for most of the years between 87 and now.  You want snow you go to the snow.  Ray should move to the Sierras.  The second he does, the snow will come back to Methuen. And Cali will enter a drought,  Then he should very quickly move back to enjoy the snow.  

[MuddyWx]

In recent memory (10 years ago maybe?) there was an inverted / Norlun trough modeled for this area, expecting like 5-8" the night before and woke up with a coating. Obviously set-up for that was a bit more unpredictable..

[Childude645]

That is absolutely nuts.

Hahah it is. Quite hilarious from where I sit but I understand all the butt hurt nonetheless

[Henry's Weather]

9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I don’t blame Ray…he spends hrs and hrs on these long range outlooks…he needs to reconsider the endeavor next year imo. Especially when you have a young family and all.  Just take what comes…nothing more one can do anyway.  Forget all the research and analogs, way too much time for very little return.  Atmosphere just sits back and laughs at us. 
 

And to be honest…this is worse than Feb of 89. I remember that still like it was yesterday. That sucked bad.  But being we are 35 yrs later, and all the supposed improvements, this is way worse.  I think we should go back to not starting threads to quite close in.  Everything up until(well 18 hrs now it seems), is just BS anyway.  

Part of me is happy that even with our advances in tech, nothing is guaranteed. Not sure we’d like perfect forecasts, it,d put us out of a fun hobby

[Henry's Weather]

Nothing will match the pain of the first March storm in 2018. I truly believed we’d flip to snow a la 1997, we got nothing. That expectation was particularly stupid on my part, not sure if any of you folks remember that storm

[Massplow]

All the tv Mets still have the Foxboro area in a 3-5 inch range are they just working their way down to nothing gradually to let people down slowly or is that still a possibility In that area?

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said:

Nothing will match the pain of the first March storm in 2018. I truly believed we’d flip to snow a la 1997, we got nothing. That expectation was particularly stupid on my part, not sure if any of you folks remember that storm

I remember it. And I was looking/hoping for it to change, cold air never made it.   But imo, this is way worse…2024, and we are under 24 hrs out, and the modeling fails so badly…it’s abysmal.  

[tavwtby]

this ranks to me with I think it was 2010, where we got suppressed, and south shore got something, but we were expecting about the same, although it wasn't as rapid as today's departure... that was the mid Atlantic season, where we hoped for something to break here and thought it was the one, can't recall the date, but I think DC got buried, multiple times that year

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

5 minutes ago, Massplow said:

All the tv Mets still have the Foxboro area in a 3-5 inch range are they just working their way down to nothing gradually to let people down slowly or is that still a possibility In that area?

I think so. That area isn’t getting much even on the “best” model runs now.

[ma blizzard]

Just want to leave this here .. if we ever want to question if this model is good 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

this ranks to me with I think it was 2010, where we got suppressed, and south shore got something, but we were expecting about the same, although it wasn't as rapid as today's departure... that was the mid Atlantic season, where we hoped for something to break here and thought it was the one, can't recall the date, but I think DC got buried, multiple times that year

That was the Snowmagedden season for them in the Mid Atlantic…nothing got up in here.  Ya, it was raining in most all of CT and Mass and NH, and a blizzard in NYC. 

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Technically, it’s not a bust because we know it’s happening ahead of time? When I was young, a bust was always waking up in the morning the storm, and having it be not storming. 

yeah I guess relative to standards of todays modeling maybe. I dunno. 

I really think this requires some kind of analysis research to figure out what happened I mean this is a pretty serious indictment. I bet you the UKMET is right for the wrong reasons.
 

 

I'd have to agree. Even the UKMET had started to "correct" northwards in an attempt to converge with the other globals. I'm not convinced its apparent win is due to the Met Office having injected their model with the secret sauce only they have their hands on. This is just wild speculation of course - maybe they were shit hot in this instance.

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, ma blizzard said:

Just want to leave this here .. if we ever want to question if this model is good 

The problem is half the ensemble members are time lagged so you're getting 50% of that mean coming from 12z runs and 50% from 00z runs. When there's a dramatic shift the utility of the HREF is definitely more limited.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

This should go down as one of the all time great, region wide rug pulls.  Glad Cape Cod and some far SNE locales will grab some snow.  Enjoy!

[wxsniss]

On 2/9/2024 at 12:33 PM, jbenedet said:

This event is lost on me so far. Still…

Looking for the perceived “wall” in the northeast; I don’t see it—not at the surface, 850 or 500. Certainly not a high enough wall for potent shortwave to overcome, with long wave spacing that has the span of the CONUS to amplify…850 cold anoms are on the back side of this; not out ahead over the northeast US or SE Canada. That’s a red flag arguing against suppression. 

There’s also a flip flop in NAO conditions as the storm makes its closest approach, neg state to positive. Less confluence; warmer. It also means faster track. With that, I believe the 12z GFS seems like the best case scenario; snow-wise. I wouldn’t benchmark that as the most likely outcome.  

 

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Oh the leader of the snow weenie pack.

Guy still lost.

CON-fluence. BS. Effin’ UL +height anoms over our heads. Has been that way for days.

 

Northern stream shortwave (kicker) kickin’ weenies in the nuts.

Funny

Maybe this was meant to provoke for fun, but worth saying anyway: ORH_wxman is by far one of the most knowledgeable, accurate, level-headed, and valuable posters on this forum.

Perhaps you can teach people here something: what distinguishes a phasing energy from a kicker, and why in this case did the northern stream energy transition from the former to the latter on guidance?

[CT Rain]

GFS is south a bit but still good for the south coast. Seems like a bit of an outlier at the moment. 

[rgwp96]

7 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

Just want to leave this here .. if we ever want to question if this model is good 

Never heard of that one . Where is that from 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

GFS is south a bit but still good for the south coast. Seems like a bit of an outlier at the moment. 

Ya that’s a major outlier 1-1.3” liquid south of 84. Cut back northern edge 

[ma blizzard]

2 minutes ago, rgwp96 said:

Never heard of that one . Where is that from 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_mean&sector=ne

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

 

Funny

Maybe this was meant to provoke for fun, but worth saying anyway: ORH_wxman is by far one of the most knowledgeable, accurate, level-headed, and valuable posters on this forum.

Perhaps you can teach people here something: what distinguishes a phasing energy from a kicker, and why in this case did the northern stream energy transition from the former to the latter on guidance?

He’ll say something like there’s no ring around the moon. Or the crows and the geese are fighting with each other, and making so much noise.   

[Prismshine Productions]

What an atmospheric wall over Ohio...

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[Sn0waddict]

Gfs is pretty damn good on the south coast.