Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[NotSureWeather]

Not seeing any of that precip make its way over the Ohio border.

[MuddyWx]

This is actually incredible

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

  On 2/13/2024 at 1:03 AM, mcap77 said:

Look in the bright side. We don't need to plow mud season like roads now. I wouldn't mind 2" or so to freshen things up though. 

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I was anticipating depositing about half the "gravel" on my driveway into a snowbank. Just mucky all around, and the refresher is definitely needed around here.

[Patrick-02540]

  On 2/13/2024 at 2:23 AM, NotSureWeather said:

Not seeing any of that precip make its way over the Ohio border.

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Nope.  Staying right along the state line.  

[H2Otown_WX]

  On 2/13/2024 at 2:23 AM, MuddyWx said:

This is actually incredible

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I'll never tell you the UKMET sucks again

[NoCORH4L]

  On 2/13/2024 at 2:20 AM, ineedsnow said:

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OMG lol

[weatherwiz]

  On 2/13/2024 at 2:22 AM, Brian5671 said:

still the same here b/w Fairfield And Bridgeport....

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The gun shell casings scattered around Bridgeport probably screw up the plows.  

[powderfreak]

  On 2/13/2024 at 2:19 AM, ineedsnow said:

1z HRRR 

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This is even between 22z and 01z.  Only a few hours. Keeps tightening the gradient south in the beginning of the event.

22z

01z

 

[wokeupthisam]

  On 2/13/2024 at 2:10 AM, wx_observer said:

The model shifts are surprising on their own.  What seems even more surprising is how confident NWS was in their forecast prior to the shift.  This was not a low confidence forecast late morning today.

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Great point

[NoCORH4L]

So is Tip officially banned from starting threads now? 

[H2Otown_WX]

  On 2/13/2024 at 2:25 AM, powderfreak said:

This is even between 22z and 01z.  Only a few hours. Keeps tightening the gradient south in the beginning of the event.

22z

01z

 

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It's like they're run out of the Pope's church basement

[allgame830]

  On 2/13/2024 at 2:25 AM, powderfreak said:

This is even between 22z and 01z.  Only a few hours. Keeps tightening the gradient south in the beginning of the event.

22z

01z

 

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Stupid question maybe but isn’t that missing 2 hours of QPF? 

[Brewbeer]

  On 2/13/2024 at 2:28 AM, NoCORH4L said:

So is Tip officially banned from starting threads now? 

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he did say the "potential" was "untapped"

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 2/13/2024 at 2:28 AM, NoCORH4L said:

So is Tip officially banned from starting threads now? 

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To be fair, he nailed the storm potential the needle just got threaded too far south.

[Cyclone-68]

What a kick in the nuts this turned into 

[Snowcrazed71]

  On 2/13/2024 at 2:29 AM, H2Otown_WX said:

It's like they're run out of the Pope's church basement

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Pope is going to take this and run with it. And he got this one right, but the problem with him is he doesn't know how to communicate and look at all sides of the spectrum.  I think that's what gets him in trouble... But he got this one. So kudos to him

[FXWX]

  On 2/13/2024 at 1:57 AM, The 4 Seasons said:

I was just thinking about that today, i could have swore when i was in school in the late 90s and early 2000s we never saw cancellations until the morning of, like 5AM. Almost never. Cancelling the day before a storm seemed like it was recent thing to me.

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Your right.  It usually only happened when a storm was underway during the afternoon or evening.  It is now the norm... 

[NotSureWeather]

  On 2/13/2024 at 2:29 AM, allgame830 said:

Stupid question maybe but isn’t that missing 2 hours of QPF? 

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It's a 6 hour map so yeah, but I think he was just showing how much less in comparison.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 2/13/2024 at 2:32 AM, Snowcrazed71 said:

Pope is going to take this and run with it. And he got this one right, but the problem with him is he doesn't know how to communicate and look at all sides of the spectrum. But I think that's what gets him in trouble. But he got this one. So kudos to him

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The pope predicted this to be a rainstorm. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

All you can do is laugh really 

[MuddyWx]

We'll remember this one for a while

[FXWX]

  On 2/13/2024 at 1:56 AM, Spaizzo said:

Our schools here cancelled right before the models ran south. It’s better for working parents to be able to plan childcare if needed.


.

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That's exactly the main reason.  That's ok as long as everyone understands there are going to be the occasional bust...

[Drewtwo]

[NotSureWeather]

  On 2/13/2024 at 2:33 AM, MuddyWx said:

We'll remember this one for a while

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That is actually painful to watch.

[FXWX]

  On 2/13/2024 at 1:50 AM, powderfreak said:

Wouldn’t some parents actually enjoy a notification that school is back on?  The ones who know their day will be strapped due to childcare now?

Who will be the first school in history to try reversing an early decision?  At some point it’ll happen.  Text and call alerts. It could be done.  If some kids still stay home, who cares,  but you get the day in.

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I'm actually in favor of being able to do that... Or at least change to a delay?  They all use email or text blast anyway...

[weatherwiz]

finally got around to making an updated forecast

[Patrick-02540]

  On 2/13/2024 at 2:33 AM, MuddyWx said:

We'll remember this one for a while

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Ooofa!  Don't post such things!

[powderfreak]

  On 2/13/2024 at 2:29 AM, allgame830 said:

Stupid question maybe but isn’t that missing 2 hours of QPF? 

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Good call, 5 hour difference in maps but only 3 hours difference in run time.

[Henry's Weather]

This is the worst bust since March 22 2018, but maybe even that one was lower expectation

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

The convection allowing models are now hallucinating an inch or two of snow running up the Monadnocks. I'm back in business, baby!