Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I really have to get weatherbell. weathermodels sucks. still waiting for the 18z euro to roll out

Dude, it’s on this part of the menu…it’s been out for like 5 min

 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I really have to get weatherbell. weathermodels sucks. still waiting for the 18z euro to roll out

 

[HinghamBoss]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I think the place is want recon for this storm is up in the Great Lakes because that will tell us if the northern stream is trying to get enough subtle interaction to crush us….that’s where the differences have been.

@Typhoon Tip mentioned this earlier as well and I agree it’s the northern stream being the key player. Not saying the southern downstream ridging isn’t important, but the northern stream evolution is what gives the room for the downstream ridging to amplify. 

At this stage, how much of a shift can we expect?  Realize the ridiculousness of the question given how today played out.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, HinghamBoss said:

At this stage, how much of a shift can we expect?  Realize the ridiculousness of the question given how today played out.

I think 20-25 miles is fair game. Keep in mind though that the change in outcome is not linear…with each bump north, QPF will non-linearly increase because the dynamics drastically improve with these further north solutions with a little more northern stream interaction. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Dude, it’s on this part of the menu…it’s been out for like 5 min

 

It's not loading for me. I've even refreshed several times

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

It's not loading for me. I've even refreshed several times

Don’t do ptype…those maps take forever (and I agree it’s annoying that they do). Do 3-hr QPF or total QPF or other maps like the 500 vort maps. 

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's not loading for me. I've even refreshed several times

It knows you hate clown maps so its giving you the finger.

[TheSnowman]

49 minutes ago, weathafella said:

That was epic in CT/MA.  Wasn't that the one with the perpetual RI sucker hole?

Don’t…. Remind Me….. of the storm you guys have STILL not explained how it happened.  

How does someone get 2 Feet to my North, 2 Feet to my NE, and 2 Feet WEST of RI…

 

But Central RI got 2”.  2 inches.  That’s impossible.  

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

Don’t…. Remind Me….. of the storm you guys have STILL not explained how it happened.  

How does someone get 2 Feet to my North, 2 Feet to my NE, and 2 Feet WEST of RI…

 

But Central RI got 2”.  2 inches.  That’s impossible.  

 

Aliens…

[CT Rain]

FWIW - the 18z GFS, 18z NAM (12km and 3km) still show excellent snow growth for BDL/HFD. Even on the QPF gradient the efficient dendritic growth could help. 

 

 

[EMontpelierWhiteout]

Time to start focusing on actual storm evolution on satellite and radar.  I like the SW Ohio marker discussed earlier.

[FXWX]

2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

FWIW - the 18z GFS, 18z NAM (12km and 3km) still show excellent snow growth for BDL/HFD. Even on the QPF gradient the efficient dendritic growth could help. 

How are you feeling about southern Fairfield County?

[HoarfrostHubb]

Should someone do a wellness check on 40/70 Benchmaaaahk.  (Ray)?

[TalcottWx]

7 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

FWIW - the 18z GFS, 18z NAM (12km and 3km) still show excellent snow growth for BDL/HFD. Even on the QPF gradient the efficient dendritic growth could help. 

But the QPF maps! 

[tavwtby]

it's a little early but downstream radar looks good for that precip into Ohio Will was talking about, let's hope it pans out

[ORH_wxman]

23z HRRR and RAP both regressed back south a small tick. We await 00z

[78Blizzard]

Heavier qpf is breaking out in extreme NE KY.  How much of that moves into those SE OH counties remains to be seen.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-OH_RV-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Can we order emergency cloud seeding 

we need someone with a plane 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

it's a little early but downstream radar looks good for that precip into Ohio Will was talking about, let's hope it pans out

I mentioned this about a half hour ago too. 

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, EMontpelierWhiteout said:

Time to start focusing on actual storm evolution on satellite and radar.  I like the SW Ohio marker discussed earlier.

SE Ohio. 

[Snowcrazed71]

Well, they just canceled schools here in Plainville for tomorrow. They must be confident enough that there will be enough snow to warrant a cancellation

[JC-CT]

I'm going to need someone to go to Ohio for ground obs.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I’d rather get my balls stepped on than stare at a SE ohio radar to see if it translates to 3” later here. 

[CT Rain]

13 minutes ago, FXWX said:

How are you feeling about southern Fairfield County?

They should do well. 8 or 10 for most?

[8611Blizz]

has some thoughts...

[UnitedWx]

3 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Well, they just canceled schools here in Plainville for tomorrow. They must be confident enough that there will be enough snow to warrant a cancellation

Simsbury canceled late afternoon also

[8611Blizz]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I’d rather get my balls stepped on than stare at a SE ohio radar to see if it translates to 3” later here. 

I was just thinking "Is this what we are reduced too?" I guess so.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, 8611Blizz said:

I was just thinking "Is this what we are reduced too?" I guess so.

I mean it’s education and gives you an idea of something to do before the next modeled ideas but man …it’s a sad state 

[EMontpelierWhiteout]

8 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

it's a little early but downstream radar looks good for that precip into Ohio Will was talking about, let's hope it pans out

Also, center of circulation appears to be more in western third of Tennessee rather than eastern half depicted by 7:00 PM GFS and Euro modeling position.  

[FXWX]

4 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

They should do well. 8 or 10 for most?

Agree,,, should be a solid hit...