Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[George001]

The Navy was way north at 12z. It usually has a well se bias so that is interesting, it could be on to something.

[SouthCoastMA]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

same here..used to message him back and forth about storms since we lived relatively close

Holy cow..things really haven't changed 

[NeonPeon]

10 minutes ago, weathafella said:

That was epic in CT/MA.  Wasn't that the one with the perpetual RI sucker hole?

The "one" hahahaha.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

Holy cow..things really haven't changed 

And then Feb13 came 2wks later. lol…

[Roger Smith]

9 minutes ago, George001 said:

I might bust, I’m not super confident but eh…. I’m sticking to my guns. I am skeptical that the storm will be as dry as some of the latest guidance has it. I believe there will be a blizzard in Boston tomorrow.

Could verify near-blizzard BOS south towards Plymouth and Taunton, but I believe best of this storm will be sCT into RI and se MA with BOS near northern edge of 5-8" band. Local 10 or even 12 inch amounts possible in sNE, too bad it's moving so fast tomorrow, will be good rates for 4-6 hrs. A sharp snowfall gradient likely north of a BOS-ORh -BDL axis. Very windy at times as low bombs for several hours around 12-18z. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

18 minutes ago, George001 said:

I might bust, I’m not super confident but eh…. I’m sticking to my guns. I am skeptical that the storm will be as dry as some of the latest guidance has it. I believe there will be a blizzard in Boston tomorrow.

 

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

The Navy was way north at 12z. It usually has a well se bias so that is interesting, it could be on to something.

Welcome back.

[NotSureWeather]

18 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

22z HRRR looks to be bumping north a tad but not sure its enough for anything meaningful 

Did this at 21z also.

[NotSureWeather]

Think it's possible I end up with the jack. Not expecting it but wouldn't be surprised based off how things went today.

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Holy cow..things really haven't changed 

Yup…Folks forget fast. 

[WinterWolf]

I’m looking at that radar Will mentioned…if you extrapolate the current movement and trajectory, it looks like it’ll easily be over the line from West Virginia into SE Ohio as of now. 

[Chrisrotary12]

11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yup…Folks forget fast. 

That was 10 years ago. I don't remember breakfast.

[weatherwiz]

18z euro about to roll out soon, right? Going to set the toaster oven up next to the bathtub and fill it with just enough water to cover my scrawny little body 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

I’m looking at that radar Will mentioned…if you extrapolate the current movement and trajectory, it looks like it’ll easily be over the line from West Virginia into SE Ohio from as of now. 

If we get big rainfall totals into those 5-6 border counties in SE OH, then it’s game on for the pike-south crew…and even Rt 2 is looking better in that scenario. If the heavy rain mostly stays SE of those counties, then my area is in trouble and perhaps even N CT. 
 

We don’t just want to see the radar echoes get there, we want to see like a solid 0.50”+ of QPF 
 

 

[tavwtby]

watch the Euro bump north 100 miles

[hudsonvalley21]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

18z euro about to roll out soon, right? Going to set the toaster oven up next to the bathtub and fill it with just enough water to cover my scrawny little body 

 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, tavwtby said:

watch the Euro bump north 100 miles

I’m expecting it to be putrid again, but since the euro does have the advantage of post-18z data assimilation, if it does come north, that’s a good sign. 

[SouthCoastMA]

18z Euro had the southern vort further north at init, we'll see if that changes things downstream

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

18z Euro had the southern vort further north at init, we'll see if that changes things downstream

guessing it will be a little north of 12z 

[ineedsnow]

18z is a good step in the right direction 

[CT Rain]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

18z is a good step in the right direction 

A bit of a bump. At least the trend has stopped.

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Messenger shuffle is a move to the south in the last 24hrs according to Scott (Messenger) RIP, His best phrase was he would like to bang the Ruc model as that was his model choice.

Absolutely correct.  When I coined the term, i was living in GC.  Messenger would start reporting in RUC runs while pointing to echos off the Delmarva and how they were shifting what had been GC snow to him.  The shuffles were in the hours before and even during the storm.

 

[SouthCoastMA]

yeah at 24h, the storm was a bit more consolidated..850 FGEN ticked a bit nw

[CoastalWx]

Well it was putrid at 12z so a small shift north won’t be surprising.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah 18z euro is slightly better but we hope that’s not the final solution. But glad the trend stopped. 

[hudsonvalley21]

Interesting that they have a recon sampling in the open waters.

 

[dryslot]

For many this is fitting for this storm.

 

[weatherwiz]

I really have to get weatherbell. weathermodels sucks. still waiting for the 18z euro to roll out

[weathafella]

I actually looked at Georgre's NOGAPS (now NAVGEM) and it was pretty juicy up to the pike but very fast.

[ORH_wxman]

I think the place is want recon for this storm is up in the Great Lakes because that will tell us if the northern stream is trying to get enough subtle interaction to crush us….that’s where the differences have been.

@Typhoon Tip mentioned this earlier as well and I agree it’s the northern stream being the key player. Not saying the southern downstream ridging isn’t important, but the northern stream evolution is what gives the room for the downstream ridging to amplify. 

[weathafella]

Yeah Euro starts reporting in around 6:45 for the 18Z run.  Slight improvement but I was impressed by how little anyone other than the fishes got in terms of qpf.  And thermals were pretty bad.