Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[bristolri_wx]

BOX AFD:

 

Quote

Well, I`ll get right to the point with this update, there`s been a
big change to the forecast this afternoon based on a remarkably late
but notable trend in the 12z/18z guidance which now keeps the bulk
of the snow centered over the south coast of southern New England.
This change is due not only to a southern shift in the track of the
low but also a notable shift in the 500 mb trough; with a slower and
less amplified solution and the northern and southern stream energy
failing to phase/strengthen as they pass through the region. This
shift has notably moved the zone of mid level frontogenesis to the
south, and since we typically see the best forcing/banding to the
northwest of the maxima this places southeast MA/Cape Cod and
southern RI in the bullseye. BUFKIT soundings do indicate decent
omega (forcing for lift) within the dendritic snow growth zone
further north into MA, so we should still see some decent snowfall
there, but the maxima looks to be south and east. While this is
remarkably late in the game for such a relatively big shift, nearly
all of the 12Z guidance including the 12Z ECMWF, 18Z NAM, 18Z HRRR
and more show it. The new forecast calls for a swath of 6 to 10
inches across southeast MA/RI with a pretty tight gradient to the
north down to potentially nothing in far northwest MA. Uncertainty
remains high, however, given marginal temperatures at onset (though
good dynamics should help cool the column to overcome this) and
potential for a shift back north with overnight guidance. This
southern shift brings slightly cooler air which may help mitigate
snow loading risk a bit, but a wet, and rather heavy snow continues
to be expected. Blizzard conditions are possible, especially on the
outer Cape where the strongest winds are expected, with gusts has
high as 55 mph possible. Elsewhere winds will be gusty, blowing 30-
40 mph over southeast MA and along the immediate coasts of MA and
RI. The Winter Storm Warning has been expanded into Cape Cod and the
islands while it has been downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory
for western and north central MA.

 

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

My first winter storm warning since 2022.

4-8 inches 

Congrats, pretty sure I have had more downgraded warnings than actual verified warnings over the past few years...about ready to add another one

[JoeSnowBOS]

Fwiw NBC holding on to 5-8 for boston and channel 5 is 4-8 for our area. They both seem a little nervous though...

Pete’s clueless….


.

[The 4 Seasons]

Icon is still solid for a lot of the area, trimed back on the NW edge so up there its rough but for a lot of CT, MA, RI it's still a solid 6-12 type deal. Same with RGEM. But i get it..it's the trending is whats causing a lot of the melting on

 

[JC-CT]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

Icon is still solid for a lot of the area, trimed back on the NW edge so up there its rough but for a lot of CT, MA, RI it's still a solid 6-12 type deal. Same with RGEM. But i get it..it's the trending is whats causing a lot of the melting on

I believe the Euro's verbatim <0.5" QPF across the entire region sans a few beaches might be partly to blame as well

[40/70 Benchmark]

Please let this winter end. I am positively done.

[Prismshine Productions]

20z HRRR ticked slower with the low and precip a hair NW

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[Shaun Curry]

6 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Looks like our friends in southern parts of RI, CT, SE Mass. will receive a very nice storm regardless of recent trends. Let's focus on that important positive. 

I'll sign a release allowing the heavier snow to move north.

[Chrisrotary12]

GYX lowered me from 9.4” to 3.8”. Probably not far enough, but I suppose you can’t go from 9 to 0.

[TheSnowman]

9 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Two scenarios are possible: it'll snow or not snow. Storms will suck, and winters will disappoint. Get over it. Let's maintain some self-respect for the SNE sub forum and act like we've been there before. 

Dude, do you realize I got 15" last year, and at 12" this year, Have Averaged only 32" in the past 6 Seasons AFTER averaging 71" for the previous 24 Years?  And Most of the big storms that occurred in those last 6 years, I Missed Traveling.  So speak for yourself.  I haven't seen more than 4" on the Ground During a storm in so long I can't remember.  

[HIPPYVALLEY]

NWS BOX has dropped the Warnings N & W of Worcester.

[bristolri_wx]

Out of personal curiosity, I would love to know what data that got ingested in the last 12-18 hours that caused this much of a hiccup.  I see the reasons for the change, but man, what a huge swing right before go time.  And before you say the Ukie was on this the entire time, the reason why the Ukie didn't like this storm on earlier runs does not seem to match the trends on the other models in the last 12 hours.  I guess the models were threading the needle the last few days with a perfect setup of chaos that didn't actually occur?

[The 4 Seasons]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I believe the Euro's verbatim <0.5" QPF across the entire region sans a few beaches might be partly to blame as well

yeah, my first head turn today was the UKMET, when it nearly whiffed at 12Z when all the guidance came in strong. 

[GansettBay]

13 minutes ago, Southshorewx said:

Did someone leave the front gate open?  Who the hell are these people posting?  

Things only a mason would say. This is a public forum mate, not another one of your elitist clubhouses lol

[HinghamBoss]

From BOX:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Key Points...

* Quick hitting Winter Storm Tuesday, though the trend has been less
  snow and quite a bit further south.

* Generally thinking the bullseye will be over southeast MA/southern
  RI where 6-10 inches is possible.

* Dangerous travel possible with widespread 1-2" per hour snowfall
  rates possible Tue AM through the afternoon.  May even have brief
  instances of 3" per hour rates.

* Wet snow & strong winds along the coast may result in power
  outages.

[78Blizzard]

10 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Icon is still solid for a lot of the area, trimed back on the NW edge so up there its rough but for a lot of CT, MA, RI it's still a solid 6-12 type deal. Same with RGEM. But i get it..it's the trending is whats causing a lot of the melting on

 

ICON still shows taint in many areas.

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Out of personal curiosity, I would love to know what data that got ingested in the last 12-18 hours that caused this much of a hiccup.  I see the reasons for the change, but man, what a huge swing right before go time.  And before you say the Ukie was on this the entire time, the reason why the Ukie didn't like this storm on earlier runs does not seem to match the trends on the other models in the last 12 hours.  I guess the models were threading the needle the last few days with a perfect setup of chaos that didn't actually occur?

My guess it's just moreso the initialization of the features and how they're evolving in real time. Just going through quickly but between some guidance and today, the differences between the evolution of the northern/southern streams don't seem too significant but certainly enough to result in larger differences at the surface. 

[78Blizzard]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Please let this winter end. I am positively done.

Some here were done a month ago.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Still decent south of Pike but might be too high still.

 

[UnitedWx]

9 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

NWS BOX has dropped the Warnings N & W of Worcester.

Yeah Westfield downgraded to winter weather advisory from a warning. Simsbury area is still under a warning, but I wouldn't be surprised if that falls later this afternoon

[Lava Rock]

19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

My first winter storm warning since 2022.

4-8 inches 

yesterday you were worried about rain

[TalcottWx]

2 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

Dude, do you realize I got 15" last year, and at 12" this year, Have Averaged only 32" in the past 6 Seasons AFTER averaging 71" for the previous 24 Years?  And Most of the big storms that occurred in those last 6 years, I Missed Traveling.  So speak for yourself.  I haven't seen more than 4" on the Ground During a storm in so long I can't remember.  

Bad winters happen, often times consecutively. It doesn't have to be the end of the world and dramatic when it does. 

 

[Ginx snewx]

26 minutes ago, Southshorewx said:

Did someone leave the front gate open?  Who the hell are these people posting?  

Toaster bath people coming out of the wood work

[ORH_wxman]

I actually thought the 18z RGEM would be a lot worse....

Haven't seen any major moves on the 20z HRRR/RAP. 19z looked a little better than 18z, but 20z is pretty much the same...might have been just a shade better on the HRRR but we're talking such small differences.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Still decent south of Pike but might be too high still.

 

That’s just the first cutback. I expect moren

[CT Rain]

GFS isn't a total disaster

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Still decent south of Pike but might be too high still.

 

A lot of areas that haven't jacked in awhile have a shot in this one. 

[CoastalWx]

18z GFS has about .6" to BOS vs like .9". Wasn't a massive jump south, but it did move in that direction.

[Ginx snewx]

11 minutes ago, GansettBay said:

Things only a mason would say. This is a public forum mate, not another one of your elitist clubhouses lol

I believe it was said in jest. Takes Lucy to bring out the sand people 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I actually thought the 18z RGEM would be a lot worse....

Haven't seen any major moves on the 20z HRRR/RAP. 19z looked a little better than 18z, but 20z is pretty much the same...might have been just a shade better on the HRRR but we're talking such small differences.

Those are my thoughts exactly. 

Definite a shift on the 18z GFS but man with how H7 evolves you would expect heavier precip farther north and west