Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[HinghamBoss]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Have you seen the last 25 pages?

Indeed.  Hence why I was scratching my head that warnings in place in the spots they were, plus adding further S and E.  Feels marginal if criteria will even be met there.

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Schools all calling off.  Snow emergency at BOS. 

 

I do hope this comes north a bit overnight so we don't have to hear the inevitable "they blew it again.." comments.

What should we be looking for in terms of looking for that happening in some fashion?

[78Blizzard]

I said days ago that we would overachieve with this storm.  But we may be doing so from a much lower baseline now. 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

All but UKMET

sometimes the outlier is the correct solution....

[PWMan]

My area was never in the game for really big totals, but at this time yesterday we were progged for 6-8 and as of this morning the NWS GYX probabilistic map still had us at >60% for 6+. Now it looks quite possible that we won't see a single flake.

As others have noted, what makes it especially bewildering is that the goalposts had seemed to close and we were down to minor oscillations - then the rug got pulled out completely less than 24 hours out. It also seems unusual to have things move south so dramatically in the absence of a big dome of cold air pushing down; usually you associate suppression with deep cold. It feels like spring out there again today.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What should we be looking for in terms of looking for that happening in some fashion?

I think Will had a good example of what to look for. You'll want to see precip later onin ern Ohio.

[8611Blizz]

I last checked in this morning at 11 and everything is a go. Prep everything for our 8-12 tomorrow and come back at 330 to this mess... Well at least the trucks and snowblowers all have fuel and salt for our 2-4".

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What should we be looking for in terms of looking for that happening in some fashion?

Ohio man. Root for Ohio.

[JC-CT]

Rgem maybe a hair south but mainly held serve

[JC-CT]

It was also on the southern end of guidance to begin with

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, PWMan said:

My area was never in the game for really big totals, but at this time yesterday we were progged for 6-8 and as of this morning the NWS Gray probabilistic map still had us at >60% for 6+. Now it looks quite possible that we won't see a single flake.

As others have noted, what makes it especially bewildering is that the goalposts had seemed to close and we were down to minor oscillations - then the rug got pulled out completely. It also seems unusual for to have things move south so dramatically in the absence of a big dome of cold air pushing down; usually you associate suppression with deep cold. It feels like spring out there again today.

Folks will conflate/blame those two as interrelated and I'm not sure that's the case.   Both situations are true ( looking), while the error for the 'minor' vs the total collapse likely coming from different handling. The stuff before was normal noise we see in these types of systems

This thing today behaved like a proverbial demolition crew finished setting up the charges and brought Vegas casino down.  Something changed in the data going into the models all at once

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Folks will conflate/blame those two as interrelated and I'm not sure that's the case.   Both situations are true ( looking), while the error source in the models look to be coming from different handling. The stuff before was normal noise.

This thing today behaved like a proverbial demolition crew finished setting up the charges and brought Vegas casino down. The stuff before was normal noise.  Something changed in the data going into the models all at once

The Euro got the data first at 6z-2 cycles prior to most other models

[JKEisMan]

ICON came south a bit from 12z but not terrible. 

Actually cut back a good bit in Mass, but not so much in CT.

[CoastalWx]

Reggie still has an inch to PYM and half inch at BOS. Gonna me a good band in between.

[ma blizzard]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Reggie still has an inch to PYM and half inch at BOS. Gonna me a good band in between.

all we can hope for is a 2/7/03 esque deform band on the NW side of the ML goodies 

[HinghamBoss]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Reggie still has an inch to PYM and half inch at BOS. Gonna me a good band in between.

Your 4-7 prediction here may all work out...albeit not how we envisioned it.

[8611Blizz]

Fwiw NBC holding on to 5-8 for boston and channel 5 is 4-8 for our area. They both seem a little nervous though...

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

6 minutes ago, JKEisMan said:

ICON came south a bit from 12z but not terrible. 

Actually cut back a good bit in Mass, but not so much in CT.

This can't be what it's come to? Our hope in the ICON coming to the rescue. 

[nutmegfriar]

Upton's 4:00 pm update calling for 6" to 9" here.

[Prismshine Productions]

I think we will see a north movement from now to go time.  How much, we will see?

Shift it 300 miles north as a total screw it

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[CoastalWx]

Just now, HinghamBoss said:

Your 4-7 prediction here may all work out...albeit not how we envisioned it.

Absolutely not what I envisioned. We'll see, maybe this tickles north on the short term guidance. We actually need the good rates to wetbulb down.

[JKEisMan]

1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

This can't be what it's come to? Our hope in the ICON coming to the rescue. 

Believe me, I'm not proud of where I'm at but it is what it is.

[FSUIZZY]

6 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

Fwiw NBC holding on to 5-8 for boston and channel 5 is 4-8 for our area. They both seem a little nervous though...

I would be too. When it's 1-2 inches and almost all the schools closed based of these models from 12 hours ago. I know the meteorologists are probably watching the radar now hoping that everything comes together for this storm to trend north 20-30 miles. They can't really rely on models too much from this point forward. 

[Southshorewx]

Did someone leave the front gate open?  Who the hell are these people posting?  

[TalcottWx]

Two scenarios are possible: it'll snow or not snow. Storms will suck, and winters will disappoint. Get over it. Let's maintain some self-respect for the SNE sub forum and act like we've been there before. 

[MJO812]

My first winter storm warning since 2022.

4-8 inches 

[FSUIZZY]

4 minutes ago, Southshorewx said:

Did someone leave the front gate open?  Who the hell are these people posting?  

Yes. This storm's historic shift brought us lurkers out. 

[TalcottWx]

Looks like our friends in southern parts of RI, CT, SE Mass. will receive a very nice storm regardless of recent trends. Let's focus on that important positive. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

My first winter storm warning since 2022.

4-8 inches 

Really hope you do well

[weatherwiz]

Well I guess there is some solace in that the 20z HRRR doesn't look any worse than 18z. This should still be solid across much of Connecticut though the max totals probably have to be dropped.