Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[WinterWolf]

I mean the 0z GEFS seems to support the 0z Op pretty nicely. 

[RDRY]

Just too bad the northern phase seems gone. That would have slowed things down and maybe turned this a bit up the coast.

[MJO812]

Gefs

[MJO812]

Ukie

[WinterWolf]

33 minutes ago, NEPASnow said:

explain please

“The Pope factor” (Noun):  If it’s showing a miss, the Pope will be showing and telling how it would hit.     
 

Conversely, When it’s showing a hit, the Pope tries to show, and say how it’s not supported, or how it will miss.    

[MJO812]

Uncle 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Ukie on pivotal looks gfs like fwiw. Solid hit for sne. At least h5 it’s not over Mt Snow.

[jbenedet]

0z GEFS more phasing than the op.

18z EPS phasing > 0z GEFS

12z GFS and earlier runs were aligned with EPS and until 18z and 0z runs.

I’m a seller of the flat and weak look. The 0z canadian is OTL also. Different than GFS but doesn’t make sense.

I think the GFS lost the right idea from earlier today.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

0z GEFS more phasing than the op.

18z EPS phasing > 0z GEFS

12z GFS and earlier runs were aligned with EPS and until 18z and 0z runs.

I’m a seller of the flat and weak look. The 0z canadian is OTL also. Different than GFS but doesn’t make sense.

I think the GFS lost the right idea from earlier today.

All of the models you just posted made improvements.  

Gefs is further south and east 

18z eps was also slightly flatter and east.

Cmc was very weird and weak

 

[MJO812]

Icon also made an adjustment south and east.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

0z GEFS more phasing than the op.

18z EPS phasing > 0z GEFS

12z GFS and earlier runs were aligned with EPS and until 18z and 0z runs.

I’m a seller of the flat and weak look. The 0z canadian is OTL also. Different than GFS but doesn’t make sense.

I think the GFS lost the right idea from earlier today.

But the flatter looks are still not weak..low to mid 980’s are hardly weak. 

[JKEisMan]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Uncle 

Ukie looks nice. Hopefully euro follows

[The 4 Seasons]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Uncle 

perfection in terms of snowfall for SNE save the cape and islands but who cares about them

[MJO812]

Ukie at 12z and now

Huge correction south 

[MJO812]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

perfection in terms of snowfall for SNE save the cape and islands but who cares about them

Love cape cod

Beautiful place to visit 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

perfection in terms of snowfall for SNE save the cape and islands but who cares about them

Nice 0z suit tonight so far for SNE.

[Franklin0529]

Lurker from the NYC forum. If there's no phasing an pure southern stream the gfs idea is certainly feasible. Keep me interested for a couple more cycles I guess 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

10 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

0z GEFS more phasing than the op. 

18z EPS phasing > 0z GEFS

12z GFS and earlier runs were aligned with EPS and until 18z and 0z runs.

I’m a seller of the flat and weak look. The 0z canadian is OTL also. Different than GFS but doesn’t make sense.

I think the GFS lost the right idea from earlier today.

1. Not seeing that

2. How? More eps members than gefs and 18z eps came se from 12z and had a large spread. 
 

3. why give more credit to older runs then more recent ones? 
 

4. Agree. You can sell the flatter/colder look. I still do but it has support so I’m not completely tossing it. 

[The 4 Seasons]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Love cape cod

Beautiful place to visit 

MVY is awesome, its so cozy have family out there. been probably a dozen times. they got a killer christmas day miracle last year 5-10"

[weathafella]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie at 12z and now

Huge correction south 

No.   Uncle was a big hit for Pike region at 12z.   You're not comparing apples to apples.

[The 4 Seasons]

11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

No.   Uncle was a big hit for Pike region at 12z.   You're not comparing apples to apples.

It's still a massive shift south, what he said is still valid. Even though the time periods on the maps dont match, it is a big change at 00Z.

Here's the same time period.

[weathafella]

18 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

It's still a massive shift south, what he said is still valid. Even though the time periods on the maps dont match, it is a big change at 00Z.

Here's the same time period.

He posted 144 and compared it to 144.   That's the invalid part.

[weathafella]

but did the UKMET have a further south expression at 0z?  Yes.

[weathafella]

I think as the Euro rolls in we're seeing a decent trend tonight but keep in mind we're still talking d5-6.  It won't take much to change it drastically.

Edit:  Euro rather CMCesque.  IOW, ugh for sne.  NNE gets a modest event.  No wait-ENE saved at the last minute.  Still some work to do on this one.....

[weathafella]

Moderate event MA and north.  Next.

[Ji]

Moderate event MA and north.  Next.

Dr says no

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[ineedsnow]

[moneypitmike]

If I had to make a call right now as whether to be at Pit1 or Pit2 next week, I'd take Pit2.

[ineedsnow]

6z GFS is south and meh

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

6z GFS is south and meh

I think a south trend is likely here. That AO is tanking