Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

We could really use some of these north trends Scott and others were expecting.

[SouthCoastMA]

lack of dynamics with warm BL means a coating at best here. would be a fail of epic proportions 

[Winter Wizard]

HRRR and RAP are both trending toward the Euro clearly at 18z. Not just in terms of south, but in terms of withering away the dynamics. This one is slipping away. 

[WeatherWilly]

Not good, just hoping southern locations can still scrape together something worthwhile. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

lack of dynamics with warm BL means a coating at best here. would be a fail of epic proportions 

Right, people might be fooled by the qpf still looking decent but if it’s a sheared out piece of shit, it won’t matter.

[Layman]

On 2/7/2024 at 11:24 AM, ORH_wxman said:

I don’t have a lot of hope for this system in SNE mostly because of the marginal antecedent airmass (been saying this for days about 2/13), but there’s some sneaky upside if we’re able to thread the needle…very dynamic look. 

Five days ago you seemed to nail this.  Quite the evolution over that stretch of time but as of now, it seems like we weren't able to thread the needle.  

[Ginx snewx]

EPS

[NotSureWeather]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

HRRR coming in much less amped compared to 12z.. Will still be a hit for some, but if you continue that trend one more time for 00z its a shut out for all of SNE.. Also as many as said a light to moderate event wont accumulate with this crap air mass.  Lost for words right now .. 

 It's a 3mb difference and east maybe 50 miles.

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

We could really use some of these north trends Scott and others were expecting.

DIT literally willed the most violent messenger shuffle in history

[Damage In Tolland]

12 hours.. 12 hours before snow was supposed to start. And the models pull this. You couldn’t have done something more cruel to us. 12 plus to nothing. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

EPS

You can toss that too the moon. Weak and sheared out won’t accumulate 

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said:

HRRR and RAP are both trending toward the Euro clearly at 18z. Not just in terms of south, but in terms of withering away the dynamics. This one is slipping away. 

Um HRRR isn't that bad.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

You can toss that too the moon. Weak and sheared out won’t accumulate 

How do you know it's weak and sheared out

[Chrisrotary12]

So in the end…. No changes. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

You can toss that too the moon. Weak and sheared out won’t accumulate 

Might still be ok for interior RI and SE MA but yeah, not great. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

As expected the HRRR went well south east about 50 miles with the accumulating snow.. Still hits the south shore hard but one more shift like that and its game over for everyone.. 

[ma blizzard]

Maybe we get lucky with the deform band on the NW edge? 

[Ginx snewx]

7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

HRRR coming in much less amped compared to 12z.. Will still be a hit for some, but if you continue that trend one more time for 00z its a shut out for all of SNE.. Also as many as said a light to moderate event wont accumulate with this crap air mass.  Lost for words right now .. 

You will be fine. Christ you were worried yesterday about being it too far North 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

As expected the HRRR went well south east about 50 miles with the accumulating snow.. Still hits the south shore hard but one more shift like that and its game over for everyone.. 

Cmon

[Lava Rock]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

12 hours.. 12 hours before snow was supposed to start. And the models pull this. You couldn’t have done something more cruel to us. 12 plus to nothing. 

we're out of the game for this, but I'm rooting for you, but it's crazy how inconsistent the models are. from 12" to 1", wtf? I'm sure it'll swing the other way tonite. It's like a yo-yo diet

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

Just like some of those storms in the 80s lol 40 years later and although forecasting abilities have gotten so much better this just goes to show that they are far from perfect.

[ORH_wxman]

This is prob what Feb 1989 would have looked like if we had the same frequency of model output back then.

[DJln491]

Box not budging, yet

 

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You will be fine. Christ you were worried yesterday about being it too far North 

Might want to take off the weenie goggles.. You need a new prescription ..

[CT Rain]

Good lord. What a disaster. 

[CoastalWx]

This is a fooking disaster.

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

This is prob what Feb 1989 would have looked like if we had the same frequency of model output back then.

If I remember right the NGM largely blew that storm.  The LFM and others were never especially big on it at all but for whatever reason the NGM was bought hard by the forecast offices 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Cmon

I'm stating the obvious here, not going out on a limb.. It's not a forecast I said if it ticks like that again .. 

[DavisStraight]

9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

We could really use some of these north trends Scott and others were expecting.

Scott had reservations while we were all high fiving,.

[Brian5671]

This could be the biggest 12 hr bust in years-some schools have already closed tomorrow lol