Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You don’t go from 12-18” to dim sun and no snow . It’s too close in. We are 12 hours away from snow starting 

Dam son.

[codfishsnowman]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You don’t go from 12-18” to dim sun and no snow . It’s too close in. We are 12 hours away from snow starting 

We did back in Feb 87 and Feb 89, I remember those Heartbreakers like it was yesterday. One big difference was we had man cold in place

[ORH_wxman]

This is one of the worst modeled systems i can remember in the past 10-15 years. Guidance has been really bad with this. Reminds me a little of the 1/27/11 event in that respect, but that one actually started coming back in the final 12 hours....this one better reverse course soon if it wants to match that progression.

[Prismshine Productions]

Latest ML water vapor image

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[Greg]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You don’t go from 12-18” to dim sun and no snow . It’s too close in. We are 12 hours away from snow starting 

She's starting to walk away.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, codfishsnowman said:

We did back in Feb 87 and Feb 89, I remember those Heartbreakers like it was yesterday. One big difference was we had man cold in place

One of those was brutal for CNJ. I think Feb 87. Expected 12-18” the night before, schools closed (which was not an easy feat back then) and we woke to flurries while the jersey shore cashed in. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

No work for me tomorrow. All is well.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is one of the worst modeled systems i can remember in the past 10-15 years. Guidance has been really bad with this. Reminds me a little of the 1/27/11 event in that respect, but that one actually started coming back in the final 12 hours....this one better reverse course soon if it wants to match that progression.

are you buying the euro?

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

are you buying the euro?

Not verbatim, but it's still concerning if there's even a compromise between it and other guidance.

[UnitedWx]

35 minutes ago, George001 said:

Euro has been flopping around and is an outlier. Tossed

I have to agree with you here. If there was other guidance that suggested this, I would be concerned... but I haven't seen anything remotely close

[codfishsnowman]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

One of those was brutal for CNJ. I think Feb 87. Expected 12-18” the night before, schools closed (which was not an easy feat back then) and we woke to flurries while the jersey shore cashed in. 

The one in Feb 89, buried ACY with 18 inches, I was just a teenager, will never forget

[Modfan2]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is one of the worst modeled systems i can remember in the past 10-15 years. Guidance has been really bad with this. Reminds me a little of the 1/27/11 event in that respect, but that one actually started coming back in the final 12 hours....this one better reverse course soon if it wants to match that progression.

Not knowing how models are scripted to run, is it a problem with the model, data input? I mean it’s 2024 and these products are awful!

[NotSureWeather]

Just now, UnitedWx said:

I have to agree with you here. If there was other guidance that suggested this, I would be concerned... but I haven't seen anything remotely close

The ukie is similar.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not verbatim, but it's still concerning if there's even a compromise between it and other guidance.

Definitely. Weird output today 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, UnitedWx said:

I have to agree with you here. If there was other guidance that suggested this, I would be concerned... but I haven't seen anything remotely close

Ukie is almost a copy....

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

We did back in Feb 87 and Feb 89, I remember those Heartbreakers like it was yesterday. One big difference was we had man cold in place

Well we were also playing Atari back then and listening to weather radios. Technology and modeling have advanced 

[UnitedWx]

Just now, NotSureWeather said:

The ukie is similar.

I put pretty much NO stock in that model, but fair enough

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

No work for me tomorrow. All is well.

Perfect, you can get an early start on raking and spring cleanup.

[UnitedWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie is almost a copy....

I hadn't seen it yet... but I really never look at that model anyway. This evening will be interesting

[Typhoon Tip]

There's a hidden upshot to a complete bust inside of 15 hours ... and that is knowing all those adolescent people turned away from schools, forcing enormous logistical hardships upon the NYC life tomorrow, would turn out to have been vacuously unnecessary -  hahaha.  Priceless

[Damage In Tolland]

Dim sun?

https://x.com/onlyinbos/status/1757079617603588459?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[codfishsnowman]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well we were also playing Atari back then and listening to weather radios. Technology and modeling have advanced 

Yes of course they've advanced but there's still room for error. Should be locked in across the board by now.

[DavisStraight]

7 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

We did back in Feb 87 and Feb 89, I remember those Heartbreakers like it was yesterday. One big difference was we had man cold in place

We went from a 15-20 inch blizzard to nada, cape got hammered, Shelby Scott was on location, you're right, I think it did happen twice. I remember Channel 5 cut into the football game with Dick Albert, Natalie asked if there was a chance it could still miss, Dickie said, NO. It did.

[SouthCoastMA]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

One of those was brutal for CNJ. I think Feb 87. Expected 12-18” the night before, schools closed (which was not an easy feat back then) and we woke to flurries while the jersey shore cashed in. 

Was historic further down the Cape; from one of James' old threads; 

[wxsniss]

Nauseating

And had some high stakes decisions about tomorrow based on American guidance as well (12k/3kNAM, GFS, HREF) and considering that 12z NAM/GFS even ticked better than 6z runs

Happens to be American vs. foreign models (Euro, UK, Canadians)

I had pointed out last night about this chasing convection on the 0z Euro, but gives pause seeing it double down on that

UA analysis will be informative later this afternoon to see if this shortwave energy trajectory is more east vs. northeast

[qg_omega]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You don’t go from 12-18” to dim sun and no snow . It’s too close in. We are 12 hours away from snow starting 

Epic bust upcoming 

[weatherwiz]

If the 18z NAM doesn't even make a tickle towards the Euro I'm not going to buy the Euro much. If that ends up biting me in the fanny, well I'll enjoy the nibble. If the 18z NAM though does make any strides towards the Euro my level of concern will do a 180 real quickly.

[dendrite]

Just looking for some obscure tiebreakers…the ARPEGE is now in the euro/ukie camp. 

[Spanks45]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

One of those was brutal for CNJ. I think Feb 87. Expected 12-18” the night before, schools closed (which was not an easy feat back then) and we woke to flurries while the jersey shore cashed in. 

I don't remember the dates, but there were multiple times I was so confident that school was going to be cancelled that I refused to do my homework and went to bed too late....crack the curtains, only to see the grass still showing and only flurries falling from the sky. Hated those storms....

[JC-CT]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie is almost a copy....

Rgem compromise maybe