Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

Why is the Euro wrong?  All I see in here is weenies chucking insults.  Looks like UKMet which hasn’t changed in days.  

Why take any one particular model as "right"? Does its insistence on a grazing blow indicate a need to take down some of the higher totals, especially around the springfield/orh corridor? Maybe?

[weatherwiz]

It seems to me like its chasing convection. H7 looks good. Yes, I'm aware we don't live at H7.

[mahk_webstah]

3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Why is the Euro wrong?  All I see in here is weenies chucking insults.  Looks like UKMet which hasn’t changed in days.  

You suffer from a lack of self awareness 

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

god i cringe at the thought of the responses. Maps floating around from the NWS that have 12-18" and winter storm warnings up, and <1" of slush falls. I think ive seen that once. Think it was Jan 13-14 2008

Yep-heavy snow warnings for a foot-we got an inch of slush.     

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

You suffer from a lack of self awareness 

Dude was locking in the ICON a couple days ago while calling everyone weenies when it had mostly rain south of rt 2.....utter embarrassment.

[Greg]

The Euro makes people dribble when they smile.

[LSC97wxnut]

GFS/HRRR/NAM/ etc:  "I want a hamburger... no, a cheeseburger. I want a hot dog. I want a milkshake..."

Ukie/EURO: You'll get nothing, and like it.

[MJO812]

Watch 18z Euro come back to reality 

[Greg]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It seems to me like its chasing convection. H7 looks good. Yes, I'm aware we don't live at H7.

Personally in all serious, i don't put tons of stalk either into depending on the H7 to get things done.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Wonder what the NWS is thinking right now 

[Damage In Tolland]

Folks are shook . Stay the course 

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Watch 18z Euro come back to reality 

If we only knew what that was

[NorEastermass128]

Just now, LSC97wxnut said:

GFS/HRRR/NAM/ etc:  "I want a hamburger... no, a cheeseburger. I want a hot dog. I want a milkshake..."

Ukie/EURO: You'll get nothing, and like it.

We’ll probably end up just getting a lousy, cold quarter pounder. Forgettable. 

[JC-CT]

It's a tough forecast, not envious of that job

[CoastalWx]

It's possible the euro is too far south with the QPF, but also possible we see the GFS and NAM make south adjustments.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It's possible the euro is too far south with the QPF, but also possible we see the GFS and NAM make south adjustments.

Not this close in 

[weatherwiz]

I wish weathermodels had more products available but you can clearly see where the problem resides (where it places the low). It definitely seems to be favoring more towards the convection. Its an elongated low which is in the process of cyclogenesis. Additional upper-level tools would provide some additional guidance as to where you could expect to see the sfc low. Regardless, where it tracks the low from this, based on the H7 low track heavy banding would be much farther nw than the Euro has.

[H2Otown_WX]

12 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

god i cringe at the thought of the responses. Maps floating around from the NWS that have 12-18" and winter storm warnings up, and <1" of slush falls. I think ive seen that once. Think it was Jan 13-14 2008

That was probably a storm that had sleet. 06-07 and 07-08 had a lot of changeover events. You should make one of those GIFs of the last six cycles of the Euro so we can see how full on Ron Washington it's been.

[TalcottWx]

Seasoned vets shrug off the nonsense. 

[Winter Wizard]

I hate to say it, but there is a pathway for the Euro/UK to be right if the weakening trend continues. Trim back the dynamics of the storm, and it becomes harder to overcome a marginal airmass. 

Hard to bet against the majority of guidance in favor of an outlier, but this raises a red flag to me. Models seem to really be struggling with the convection. I'm holding the line for a significant snowstorm for all of SNE, but with more caution. 

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Watch 18z Euro come back to reality 

Off hour. Already tossed

[Patrick-02540]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I wish weathermodels had more products available but you can clearly see where the problem resides (where it places the low). It definitely seems to be favoring more towards the convection. Its an elongated low which is in the process of cyclogenesis. Additional upper-level tools would provide some additional guidance as to where you could expect to see the sfc low. Regardless, where it tracks the low from this, based on the H7 low track heavy banding would be much farther nw than the Euro has.

It jumps 120 miles due east right towards the convection.  

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not this close in 

Adjustments? Sure. I'm not saying adjustments mean 200 miles shifts.

[Damage In Tolland]

You don’t go from 12-18” to dim sun and no snow . It’s too close in. We are 12 hours away from snow starting 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Patrick-02540 said:

It jumps 120 miles due east right towards the convection.  

We've seen many storms where convection has messed with the dynamics. It happens.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Patrick-02540 said:

It jumps 120 miles due east right towards the convection.  

It can't be discounted, I mean we've been screwed before in these scenarios. I wonder if there is literature out there on these situations. Someone's had to do extensive research into this. Would be great to have an understanding of when this situation does occur versus when it doesn't. Maybe there is no clear cut signal, models still really struggle with resolving convection, especially in these highly dynamic situations. 

[JC-CT]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

You don’t go from 12-18” to dim sun and no snow . It’s too close in. We are 12 hours away from snow starting 

Or not starting 

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Off hour. Already tossed

Gonna be both a lot of tossing, and maybe not so much tossing going on later if you know what I mean

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

Gonna be both a lot of tossing, and maybe not so much tossing going on later if you know what I mean

The only tossing I want to be seeing right now is long tossing between Red Sox pitchers and catchers when they report. 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Gonna be both a lot of tossing, and maybe not so much tossing going on later if you know what I mean

European models tossing SNE’s salad