Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/02/final-call-for-high-impact-short.html

We 12-18”

[Typhoon Tip]

Calm before the storm ... 

...sneaky nape gem of a day going on out there.  45 F is an apparent MOS buster under intensifying mid Feb sun angle and almost dead calm clear air - super adiabatic very thin layer of warmth is nice for a lunch stroll.

I didn't see this day being this way honesty and I tend to track these tedious nerd fest thermometer watch days at this time of year   ha..   I thought we'd bottom out lower last night, and than have a bit more thickness of cirrus arrival to help cap cold. 

[Spaizzo]

Happy  to see me safely ensconced in the 15-18 zone.

Did Kevin color that map and put a 18 over tolland lol


.

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Hasn’t snowed much in 2 years and downing about no Jack zone . I think PVD has a high ceiling here 

8-12 is definitely nothing to sneeze at for sure. I bet that back in the 80s people would kill for a storm like that. Like I said in my earlier posts this was never supposed to be a high end event to begin with. I personally think that PVD will end up closer to 8" than 12" though. Kind of a moderate warning event but nothing major. Maybe I'm wrong. But I will enjoy it regardless of the outcome.

[CoastalWx]

I still don't have a great feeling here. 

[weatherwiz]

GFS just as beautiful as the NAM at BDL. One thing that is interesting too is it seems like the speed has slowed down a bit...or maybe there is some pivot potential but I think it's time to up the totals 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I still don't have a great feeling here. 

Noone will if the ukie were to verify lol

[HoarfrostHubb]

Not trying to be a debbie, but I am thinking Ray's map is too agressive for my hood

[wx2fish]

6 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said:

It's a little unsettling that Uncle hasnt budged.

Almost cirrus to ORH at 12z, pretty wild differences

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I still don't have a great feeling here. 

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Not trying to be a debbie, but I am thinking Ray's map is too agressive for my hood

The “surprised” with 15 inches tomorrow night posts will be fun.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I still don't have a great feeling here. 

Temps or are you worried about the best stuff going south?

Seems like if you end up with an inch of QPF but 925mb is like -3C during the bulk of the good stuff, you'll pound paste.

[moneypitmike]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/02/final-call-for-high-impact-short.html

That’s a helluva lot of zones.  Need to push the NE corner of the  jack 5 miles east.  
 

j/k. Good luck!

[78Blizzard]

8 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said:

It's a little unsettling that Uncle hasnt budged.

It's actually worse.  Probably don't even need a WSW for most if that verifies.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We 12-18”

Looks like you are safely in the 8-12. Congrats 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Temps or are you worried about the best stuff going south?

Seems like if you end up with an inch of QPF but 925mb is like -3C during the bulk of the good stuff, you'll pound paste.

Temps. Yeah I think it will need to be consistent heavy echoes when it's like -2 to -3C at 925. At least we aren't fighting WAA and east winds. But with all that, many models are like 33-34 for a long time. Just has me spooked a bit. But we could drop to like 32.5 if it consistently pounds and it'll stack. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Looks like you are safely in the 8-12. Congrats 

You’ve proven yet again you don’t know where Tolland is. Enjoy 3-6 there 

[The 4 Seasons]

anyone see the ukmet lmao

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The “surprised” with 15 inches tomorrow night posts will be fun.

That won't be happening.  Show me any current piece of guidance that shows double digits here

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

You’ve proven yet again you don’t know where Tolland is. Enjoy 3-6 there 

Looks like 12-18 for Union. 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

anyone see the ukmet lmao

imagine the suicides if that verified...

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like 12-18 for Union. 

Ask him if you’re confused..He’s  got all the TOL hills in 12-18”  

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

That won't be happening.  Show me any current piece of guidance that shows double digits here

Both NAMs, ICON and HREF all give you double digits. GFS technically a little south, but you'd prob score 10"+ on that run too given the ML fronto look.

You may miss the goods if this ticks a little south, but there is guidance that hits you hard at 12z.

[Patrick-02540]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

imagine the suicides if that verified...

The only one who would benefit with a result like that is my cousin Joey the funeral director.  

[MuddyWx]

As bad as the UKMET can be, it still brings the southern goal post even further south. Wary

[dan11295]

Crazy how far off that is from NAM/GFS with 24 hours until start time

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

That won't be happening.  Show me any current piece of guidance that shows double digits here

I think you have a good chance at double digits.

[mahk_webstah]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I still don't have a great feeling here. 

Battle scar tissue

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

As bad as the UKMET can be, it still brings the southern goal post even further south. Wary

Isn't it one of the worst models for NE snow storms?

[The 4 Seasons]

Final call. Shifted everything SEWD a bit and highlighted the areas of likely highest snowfall, inland and above 500FT in the new haven county/FF county/tolland/windham hills where 12+ lollis possible. 

Increased NYC/LI significantly but didn't feel comfortable going much higher than 3-6 for them given the very marginal BL