Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[Lava Rock]

3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

This was a good read and I think it should make our southern New Englanders who have suffered so much the last couple of years, very happy.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

you mean i won't get my dusting up here? bummer

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

This was a good read and I think it should make our southern New Englanders who have suffered so much the last couple of years, very happy.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

That was an incredible discussion.

[allgame830]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

The 6z Euro I don't think looks terrible overall. It's not drastically different with the mid-levels than other guidance is. It seems like maybe its a bit more east with H7 than it is east-northeast? I wouldn't worry about the 6z Euro 

Agreed. Also the EPS mean was better 

[codfishsnowman]

I've seen this movie before. This will be a southern coastal plain storm with enough around here to be annoying 

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That was an incredible discussion.

I posted it because it implies something pretty intense that comes across a decent part of southern New England. With so many models coming out at all, feels so jumpy and unclear. But that discussion says you should get ready for a big intense fast snowstorm that can be a lot of fun during the daytime tomorrow if you are particularly south of the pike.  I’d be stoked if I lived down there.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Has there been a more important 12z suite to lift a forum or kick them in the nads ..or tooo dramatic 

[NorEastermass128]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Has there been a more important 12z suite to lift a forum or kick them in the nads ..or tooo dramatic 

I’m too jaded to care. If this is the last hurrah, I’m probably finishing another season around 20”. 
 

EDIT:  I’m sitting at 11.1” on the season. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

I posted it because it implies something pretty intense that comes across a decent part of southern New England. With so many models coming out at all, feels so jumpy and unclear. But that discussion says you should get ready for a big intense fast snowstorm that can be a lot of fun during the daytime tomorrow if you are particularly south of the pike.  I’d be stoked if I lived down there.

Could be a painful one for me...should sleep at my sister's in Wilmington tonight lol

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Has there been a more important 12z suite to lift a forum or kick them in the nads ..or tooo dramatic 

Many of us have been kicked, including you. You could still be in the game though for a good band depending on trends. I’m definitely out of the game. But south of the pike it’s gonna score. Do you have a client down there who might “house” you tonight?

[jbenedet]

On 2/10/2024 at 10:07 AM, jbenedet said:

Clowns will clown.

Antecedent airmass sucks. Check

Confluence over northeast gone. Check

Northern stream comes in late. Check.

 

Good luck in southern SNE.

That was my latest, but can’t help if we have a bunch of boomers with dementia in here.

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Agreed. Also the EPS mean was better 

Even if the 6z Euro "verified" there would be more precip northwest of where it is indicating 

[tunafish]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

To be fair, he admitted that wouldn't work out a long time ago...kind of a dick move to do that after someone owns it.

To be fair, I haven't been following this thread closely.  

And, to be fair, the guy routinely calls long-time posters trash/hack/losers.  

Good for him being accountable.  Doesn't mean he shouldn't get ribbed.  He can take it.

[MaineJayhawk]

This forum was built on dick moves

[rgwp96]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Pretty safe to say Euro suite had a hiccup. We’ll know in 90 minutes as the hires come out 

Albany folks said this the run before lol, it’s a bad case of the hiccups  I guess 

[dendrite]

Euro went from 10-14” here on the 00z sunday run to dim sun Tue afternoon 24hrs later. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, MaineJayhawk said:

This forum was built on dick moves

Just saying, its a slippry slope when we start rideculing incorrect calls on a weather forum, but I get some of this past antics. He's attacked me.

[ariof]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Euro went from 10-14” here on the 00z sunday run to dim sun Tue afternoon 24hrs later. 

I read this as "dim sum" and thought it was something about lunar new year.

[weatherwiz]

HRRR looks like a crusher from BOS to HFD to DXR

[CoastalWx]

Hrrr is a torch still. BL blows which has been my worry all along. But I’m a Debbie.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Hrrr is a torch still. BL blows which has been my worry all along. But I’m a Debbie.

yeah just looked at that lots of 33-34  

[NorEastermass128]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Hrrr is a torch still. BL blows which has been my worry all along. But I’m a Debbie.

A defeated Debbie. I’m right there with you. I’m always leery with a torched BL to begin. 

[weatherwiz]

7z NBM has BDL right around 33 for much of the storm and BOS mid 30's during the pre-dawn and then like 34-35 for the storm. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hrrr is a torch still. BL blows which has been my worry all along. But I’m a Debbie.

Gosh with my posting style and your location I’d be called

“dickles the human caution flag “

 

meaning you know your risks but you don’t melt out to the group about them even if you been ram rodded weekly at Greta’s house of carbon offsets 

[JC-CT]

Temps and qpf both a concern, I'm expecting a light drizzle.

[Typhoon Tip]

Probably this needs now-cast ...

The 06z Euro doesn't really drop the mic on this for me at all.  Seems as though some are acting like it should? Yes, it could certainly be right, but there's just as much plausibility for this to bump back NW on the next cycle(s) - all thse SE "giga" movements in the models don't appear to be coherently driven by large scale forcing. That tends to thinking that behavior is an artifact of model noise...  Stakes are high-ish. Even a half back correction and 4-6" comes back to Rt 2 with 6-10" to the Pike ...etc.. 

Or should the ICON's overnight rendition prevail, that obviously implicates more.    I consider the Euro as the southern goal post and the ICON the northern.

You know, it would be wonderfully entertaining if the 06z ICON solution verified in lieu of the Euro ... It's sort of an underdog model.  I like mixing things up a bit and rattling preconceptions. It's fun to bear witness.  Lol  

I will say, that ICON's track and intensity have varied the least of all guidance between 18z yesterday, 0z last night and 06z this morning. It has moved around a little, but less than the other guidance.  It's QPF distribution was mod/major, moderate, back to major respectively ...so some additional variability run-to-run with that ... But by and large its general cyclonic manifold has demoed the better continuity.  

The Euro moving S some 100 mi in < 3 days before go-time is atypical model performance ...  If that verifies that would be just as interesting.  And if so ... I'd suggest that attenuation phenomenon caught up with this... Perhaps at imperceptible scales, a weakening in the total scaffolding of the circulation within which this system transmits ...becomes less supportive, that could induce a southerly track correction in the finality.   It's just that "imperceptible" ( or maybe "sneaky" is a better word) makes that less reliable.

Anyway, we find ourselves in a situation where worse continuity is being rewarded with more confidence?   That's also interesting -

 

[mahk_webstah]

20 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Euro went from 10-14” here on the 00z sunday run to dim sun Tue afternoon 24hrs later. 

A double order of Xiao Long Bao please.

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hrrr is a torch still. BL blows which has been my worry all along. But I’m a Debbie.

Where?

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Where?

Eastern coastline....it's fine back west.

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Probably this needs now-cast ...

The 06z Euro doesn't really drop the mic on this for me at all.  Seems as though some are acting like it should? Yes, it could certainly be right, but there's just as much plausibility for this to bump back NW on the next cycle(s) - all thse SE "giga" movements in the models don't appear to be coherently driven by large scale forcing. That tends to thinking that behavior is an artifact of model noise...  Stakes are high-ish. Even a half back correction and 4-6" comes back to Rt 2 with 6-10" to the Pike ...etc.. 

Or should the ICON's overnight rendition prevail, that obviously implicates more.    I consider the Euro as the southern goal post and the ICON the northern.

You know, it would be wonderfully entertaining if the 06z ICON solution verified in lieu of the Euro ... It's sort of an underdog model.  I like mixing things up a bit and rattling preconceptions. It's fun to bear witness.  Lol  

I will say, that ICON's track and intensity have varied the least of all guidance between 18z yesterday, 0z last night and 06z this morning. It has moved around a little, but less than the other guidance.  It's QPF distribution was mod/major, moderate, back major respectively ...so some additional variability run-to-run with that ... But by and large its general cyclonic manifold has demoed the better continuity.  

The Euro moving S a 100 mi in < 3 days before go-time is atypical model performance ...  If that verifies that would be just as interesting.  And if so ... I'd suggest that attenuation phenomenon caught up with this... Perhaps at imperceptible scales, a weakening in the total scaffolding of the circulation within which this system transmits ...becomes less supportive, that could induce a southerly track correction in the finality.   It's just that "imperceptible" ( or maybe "sneaky" is a better word) makes that less reliable.

Anyway, we find ourselves in a situation where worse continuity is being rewarded with more confidence?   That's also interesting -

 

I prefer the existing arrangement, post WW2.

[mahk_webstah]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Probably this needs now-cast ...

The 06z Euro doesn't really drop the mic on this for me at all.  Seems as though some are acting like it should? Yes, it could certainly be right, but there's just as much plausibility for this to bump back NW on the next cycle(s) - all thse SE "giga" movements in the models don't appear to be coherently driven by large scale forcing. That tends to thinking that behavior is an artifact of model noise...  Stakes are high-ish. Even a half back correction and 4-6" comes back to Rt 2 with 6-10" to the Pike ...etc.. 

Or should the ICON's overnight rendition prevail, that obviously implicates more.    I consider the Euro as the southern goal post and the ICON the northern.

You know, it would be wonderfully entertaining if the 06z ICON solution verified in lieu of the Euro ... It's sort of an underdog model.  I like mixing things up a bit and rattling preconceptions. It's fun to bear witness.  Lol  

I will say, that ICON's track and intensity have varied the least of all guidance between 18z yesterday, 0z last night and 06z this morning. It has moved around a little, but less than the other guidance.  It's QPF distribution was mod/major, moderate, back major respectively ...so some additional variability run-to-run with that ... But by and large its general cyclonic manifold has demoed the better continuity.  

The Euro moving S a 100 mi in < 3 days before go-time is atypical model performance ...  If that verifies that would be just as interesting.  And if so ... I'd suggest that attenuation phenomenon caught up with this... Perhaps at imperceptible scales, a weakening in the total scaffolding of the circulation within which this system transmits ...becomes less supportive, that could induce a southerly track correction in the finality.   It's just that "imperceptible" ( or maybe "sneaky" is a better word) makes that less reliable.

Anyway, we find ourselves in a situation where worse continuity is being rewarded with more confidence?   That's also interesting -

 

the discussion of the radar tomorrow should be fascinating.