Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[George001]

I’d like the low to be about 75 miles SE of the GFS and Canadian for my area, but I’ll take my chances with a low bombing to the 970s in mid Feb.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The best PVA and energy on these 12z solutions is at the base of the southern stream trough so even on these solutions that initially run things well NW, they keep trying to crash everything SE as the system encounters a lot of compression in the flow to the east. GGEM went wild too late in the event after having the primary near ROC, though it was mostly too late for SNE outside of a few inches in the pike region northeastward….but Maine gets epically destroyed. Lol

 

 

I like my spot relative to most of SNE...you either want to up in elevation or NE....away from that primary with more time for energy consolidations to the south.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The best PVA and energy on these 12z solutions is at the base of the southern stream trough so even on these solutions that initially run things well NW, they keep trying to crash everything SE as the system encounters a lot of compression in the flow to the east. GGEM went wild too late in the event after having the primary near ROC, though it was mostly too late for SNE outside of a few inches in the pike region northeastward….but Maine gets epically destroyed. Lol

 

 

Yeah that swings east and definitely helps us. At least this bombs and switches winds north quickly. I just hope it doesn't do that over my head lol.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah that swings east and definitely helps us. At least this bombs and witches winds north quickly. I just hope it doesn't do that over my head lol.

I don’t have a lot of hope for this system in SNE mostly because of the marginal antecedent airmass (been saying this for days about 2/13), but there’s some sneaky upside if we’re able to thread the needle…very dynamic look. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Kuchie and 10:1 each give me 20"... Is it too much to ask for 24? XD (tho I would gladly take this)

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[Sn0waddict]

I know it’s a rain solution down here but a 956mb low just east of Boston is wild lol. (CMC)

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Can’t keep them down for long. 
 

12z ICON coming out slow today. 

DiFax needs more ink...

[Sn0waddict]

1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said:

I know it’s a rain solution down here but a 956mb low just east of Boston is wild lol. (CMC)

For our Maine friends

[Kitz Craver]

Whelp

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Congrats Ray and friends. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

6 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Kuchie and 10:1 each give me 20"... Is it too much to ask for 24? XD (tho I would gladly take this)

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This is pain personified. Bright side is this would likely earn me a day off 

[weatherwiz]

What ends up helping everyone out too is how the entire system closes off as it is passing just to our east. Would see some a good deal of dynamic cooling in that scenario and very hefty CCB which would more than likely traverse the entire region. Essentially, if this solution were to verify I don't think I'd complain. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Compromise between the GEM and GFS works.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Congrats Ray and friends. 

You have been Wander Francoed all winter long.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Compromise between the GEM and GFS works.

I thought you were rooting against yourself for once so the southies make up ground to enhance your seasonal verification scores?

[40/70 Benchmark]

NARCAN is feeling it.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Taking a glass half full approach, it wouldn’t take much to get that cooler down here. Not likely, but not impossible 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I thought you were rooting against yourself for once so the southies make up ground to enhance your seasonal verification scores?

I'm not worried about that with the pattern moving forward...this is gravy.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

NARCAN is feeling it.

I’d take that and run down here 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Remeber how shitty NARCAN was in that last marginal event that sucked? Its good at sniffing marginal set ups out.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You have been Wander Francoed the past several winters.

Fyp but It is what it is. I never bought into this thread the needle potential anyways. We’ll need brooklyns epic h5 pattern to produce a pd3 monster or its almost time to dim the lights and close the curtains…

[The 4 Seasons]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Taking a glass half full approach, it wouldn’t take much to get that cooler down here. Not likely, but not impossible 

you don't say

I do agree it's gonna be tough down here in SSNE with no real cold air in place which ive mentioned before. Gonna need a pretty close to perfect soln and at D6 anythings still on the table. The ensembles being N leaning is what gives me the most pause despite the OP runs. Lot of hits for C/NNE and only a couple down here.

[Kitz Craver]

Someone is going to get crushed with this event and it ain’t SOP

[CoastalWx]

Hopefully AstronomyEnjoyer's telescope is buried.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

you don't say

I do agree it's gonna be tough down here in SSNE with no real cold air in place which ive mentioned before. Gonna need a pretty close to perfect soln and at D6 anythings still on the table. The ensembles being N leaning is what gives me the most pause despite the OP runs. Lot of hits for C/NNE and only a couple down here.

The gfs is only about 40-50 miles away from a region wide crusher. A slightly later phase and maybe a tick south would have destroyed. Again, it’s not likely, but there is a path.

[weathafella]

Still d6.  Keep that in mind.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Still d6.  Keep that in mind.

Yup. PF is lurking in the bushes smiling…

[Prismshine Productions]

GEFS are you ok buddy?

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[JKEisMan]

This thing is going to be a beast somewhere in NE. I will chase it. If need be.

[The 4 Seasons]

UKMET is coming N/faster, i think we have a good idea where the euro is gonna be heading at 12z