Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[Cold Miser]

  On 2/14/2024 at 4:29 PM, The 4 Seasons said:

Here's the update i promised yesterday. A TON of reports for this one, wow. I even but a little hole over Dayville, Alexander lake i believe it is? Thats the only big lake around there for @Cold Miser

Ill be working on a SNE map today as well and then an updated season to date map for CT and SNE. Dont forget to update the New England Snow page

 

 

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Yup. That's it...aka Lava Lake.

[weathafella]

  On 2/14/2024 at 5:58 PM, Cold Miser said:

Yup. That's it...aka Lava Lake.

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[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/14/2024 at 3:37 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Well, 6” will do it. Absolute cement for the first 4, too 2 weren’t to bad. Got to use my snowblower I bought in Dec 2020 For only the 3rd time. Chewed right through this stuff like a champ.

 

Anyways, on some dumpier news, my wife and I are separating, so no idea how much longer I’ll be in this house/area.

Enjoyed this event even with all of its flaws

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So sorry, Brett.

[weatherwiz]

Certainly not happy with this forecast at all. Maybe it looks “fine” for Connecticut but an absolute disaster along the Mass Pike area and I essentially pulled the plug and called bust for Connecticut Monday evening. 
 

now ultimately one could say all I had to do was just shift this down some miles and tighten the gradient. If I had more time/energy I would have made an updated map but l would have not made those changes. I would have went significantly less for Connecticut and maybe do 4-7” southern and 2-4” so it would have been much worse if I did something so this map makes the forecast better than it would have been.

[The 4 Seasons]

  On 2/14/2024 at 5:05 PM, CT Valley Snowman said:

Great map as always but that 3.1" is definitely a bit low over my hood in Enfield.  I had 5.75"

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No problem, fixed. there were actually two different reports from cocorahs (over two days) and i missed that so it was 3.1+3, so it should have been 6.1...but i used your report anyway

 

[mreaves]

  On 2/14/2024 at 5:58 PM, Cold Miser said:

Yup. That's it...aka Lava Lake.

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I just clicked on your location, Dayville, CT and it took me to Danville, VT.  Lol

[The 4 Seasons]

  On 2/14/2024 at 7:33 PM, weatherwiz said:

Certainly not happy with this forecast at all. Maybe it looks “fine” for Connecticut but an absolute disaster along the Mass Pike area and I essentially pulled the plug and called bust for Connecticut Monday evening. 
 

now ultimately one could say all I had to do was just shift this down some miles and tighten the gradient. If I had more time/energy I would have made an updated map but l would have not made those changes. I would have went significantly less for Connecticut and maybe do 4-7” southern and 2-4” so it would have been much worse if I did something so this map makes the forecast better than it would have been.

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Even with the far SE shift, SE CT always manages a way to get screwed ~3" for coastal new london county

[WxWatcher007]

  On 2/14/2024 at 10:06 PM, The 4 Seasons said:

Even with the far SE shift, SE CT always manages a way to get screwed ~3" for coastal new london county

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I was surprised to see that. Maybe far lower ratios? They’re such a snow pit it’s hard to watch. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 2/14/2024 at 3:37 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Well, 6” will do it. Absolute cement for the first 4, too 2 weren’t to bad. Got to use my snowblower I bought in Dec 2020 For only the 3rd time. Chewed right through this stuff like a champ.

 

Anyways, on some dumpier news, my wife and I are separating, so no idea how much longer I’ll be in this house/area.

Enjoyed this event even with all of its flaws

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Sorry to hear. Relationships are tough but maybe a permanent North Conway residency awaits?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 2/14/2024 at 7:16 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

So sorry, Brett.

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  On 2/14/2024 at 11:16 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Sorry to hear. Relationships are tough but maybe a permanent North Conway residency awaits?

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Thanks guy, appreciate it. And who knows at this point. We’ll see what happens in the coming weeks/months, I’d love to move north 

[wx2fish]

  On 2/14/2024 at 5:50 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Glad you posted that....my 1.5" measurement was an anomaly relative to surrounding areas, and this validates my ob, as I am right in that narrow corridor.

That is exactly what it is...the narrow corridor between the dry air and the maritime influence that saw some accumulation.

 

 

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I had just over 1" here too before it started compressing. There was a little more in Salem when I was there this morning. 

[weatherwiz]

  On 2/14/2024 at 10:06 PM, The 4 Seasons said:

Even with the far SE shift, SE CT always manages a way to get screwed ~3" for coastal new london county

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Yeah right. What a brutal place to live really. Get hardly any thunderstorms, 90% of the state could be in the lower 80’s and they’re still in the 60’s. Awful 

[Cold Miser]

  On 2/14/2024 at 8:18 PM, The 4 Seasons said:

No problem, fixed. there were actually two different reports from cocorahs (over two days) and i missed that so it was 3.1+3, so it should have been 6.1...but i used your report anyway

 

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I lol'd seeing the lake on there.

[The 4 Seasons]

Spent the whole day working on this. SNE snowfall totals, everything should be right and matches up with the CT map but if theres any corrections let me know.

Shows up here too @Cold Miser

[George001]

  On 2/14/2024 at 3:37 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Well, 6” will do it. Absolute cement for the first 4, too 2 weren’t to bad. Got to use my snowblower I bought in Dec 2020 For only the 3rd time. Chewed right through this stuff like a champ.

 

Anyways, on some dumpier news, my wife and I are separating, so no idea how much longer I’ll be in this house/area.

Enjoyed this event even with all of its flaws

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That really sucks, sorry to hear about that

[powderfreak]

  On 2/14/2024 at 11:46 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

 

Thanks guy, appreciate it. And who knows at this point. We’ll see what happens in the coming weeks/months, I’d love to move north 

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Take the opportunity, if it presents itself.  You can move to wherever you want to start anew.  Go somewhere you think you’d enjoy on a personal level.

[mahk_webstah]

Nam qpf doesn’t seem to be increasing much across New Hampshire, at least

[mreaves]

  On 2/14/2024 at 11:46 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

 

Thanks guy, appreciate it. And who knows at this point. We’ll see what happens in the coming weeks/months, I’d love to move north 

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Weren’t you a criminal justice major?  Everyone is looking for cops in VT. 

[Cold Miser]

  On 2/15/2024 at 2:05 AM, The 4 Seasons said:

Spent the whole day working on this. SNE snowfall totals, everything should be right and matches up with the CT map but if theres any corrections let me know.

Shows up here too @Cold Miser

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I trust you have a neat and tidy catalog of all the maps you put out. Good amount of blood sweat and tears in your presentations. 

[The 4 Seasons]

  On 2/15/2024 at 1:54 PM, Cold Miser said:

I trust you have a neat and tidy catalog of all the maps you put out. Good amount of blood sweat and tears in your presentations. 

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oh yeah  7,928 files 

 

[WinterWolf]

Where’s summer 2019? 

[The 4 Seasons]

  On 2/15/2024 at 8:20 PM, WinterWolf said:

Where’s summer 2019? 

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Who knows, not much in those folders anyways

[H2Otown_WX]

  On 2/15/2024 at 2:05 AM, The 4 Seasons said:

Spent the whole day working on this. SNE snowfall totals, everything should be right and matches up with the CT map but if theres any corrections let me know.

Shows up here too @Cold Miser

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Damn, just left my total out? Dat cold dawg.

[The 4 Seasons]

  On 2/16/2024 at 8:25 AM, H2Otown_WX said:

Damn, just left my total out? Dat cold dawg.

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Yours was in the CT map. I left a lot out for the SNE map because it's literally impossible to fit them all. 

Build a bridge...

[H2Otown_WX]

  On 2/16/2024 at 1:45 PM, The 4 Seasons said:

Yours was in the CT map. I left a lot out for the SNE map because it's literally impossible to fit them all. 

Build a bridge...

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Lol, nah I get it. Waterbury is a sh*thole that doesn't matter.

 

Also for the record I just measured the depth. I didn't clear a snowboard or nothing like that. Too old and depressed to care lol

[OceanStWx]

  On 2/14/2024 at 1:54 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

 

And that’s the reason. I actually thought this to myself today. When places that they don’t have warned get warning snows.. they try to hide and mask it. It’s all about verification for their individual offices. Big brother (govt) is watching. Ask @OceanStWx. Let’s see if he’ll comment 

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How did I get roped into this goat rodeo of an event? 

For starters that map is primarily compiled using CoCoRaHS and Coop reports, which are typically 7am-ish. So there was some settlings that occurred overnight prior to reporting. If you include those "official" obs with the totals closer to 18 inches the map kind of looks like one of Ginxy's dog turds because of weird bullseyes. Nothing nefarious, because for BOX a miss is a miss. They'll take the false alarm for the original warning which was cancelled before verifying, then take the missed event for not upgrading the advisory once it was clear warning amount were going to happen. It seems like they just decided to go down with the ship on this one.

There can definitely be too much concern with verification sometimes, but it is also the only way we can really track our performance objectively. And we're also required by Congress to track certain metrics, as that's the only way they understand our performance. Some offices definitely try and sneak some past. You see it far more often with tornadoes, tweaking the start time so that it falls under a warning (even if the radar evidence points towards the warning being late).

[The 4 Seasons]

  On 2/17/2024 at 8:47 PM, OceanStWx said:

How did I get roped into this goat rodeo of an event? 

For starters that map is primarily compiled using CoCoRaHS and Coop reports, which are typically 7am-ish. So there was some settlings that occurred overnight prior to reporting. If you include those "official" obs with the totals closer to 18 inches the map kind of looks like one of Ginxy's dog turds because of weird bullseyes. Nothing nefarious, because for BOX a miss is a miss. They'll take the false alarm for the original warning which was cancelled before verifying, then take the missed event for not upgrading the advisory once it was clear warning amount were going to happen. It seems like they just decided to go down with the ship on this one.

There can definitely be too much concern with verification sometimes, but it is also the only way we can really track our performance objectively. And we're also required by Congress to track certain metrics, as that's the only way they understand our performance. Some offices definitely try and sneak some past. You see it far more often with tornadoes, tweaking the start time so that it falls under a warning (even if the radar evidence points towards the warning being late).

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tl;dr, nothing nefarious going on, awt.

[mreaves]

  On 2/19/2024 at 5:12 AM, The 4 Seasons said:

tl;dr, nothing nefarious going on, awt.

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The main thing I got was the use of the term “goat rodeo”. That in itself is worth the read.