Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[The 4 Seasons]

Beautiful day out, went for a walk in the heavy snow 

[SnowlieSnowstormson]

Just want to give a huge shoutout to @CT Rain for using meteorological knowledge, pointing out upper level conditions as a plus factor last night vs hugging snow maps to at least not overly pare back totals in CT like some of the more amateur folks on Twitter and elsewhere who rolled out like 5 forecasts and overly bought into the modeling whipsaw.

 

 

[wxsniss]

Plain rain, 36/33 in Coolidge Corner

Best soundings in Boston metro were 15z-21z, and best radar returns of event so far are overhead, but not even flakes mixing in. Temps look like CF wrapped around city between 128-495. 

717 day record will hold.

Can’t believe snow emergency and region-wide school cancellations were called so early on Monday

Congrats to folks in CT

[TheSnowman]

32 minutes ago, EMontpelierWhiteout said:

This is a weather forum. Not interested in your politics. 

I said 7 things.  You choose to pick 1 that wasn’t even specifically that.  And you get 7 Likes for pointing out a falsehood.  Wow.  I can’t believe how swift some of you are (And the “Good Lord” comment, haha, Wow, thought everyone was tough in here).  And Bristol_RIWX, I’ve Never touched Drugs and Never been drunk, so no thanks on the weed.  Us Italians prefer to be Negatively Pissed off all day.  We live in reality, not LaLa land.  

 

The Snow is Gloppy as well, No Uniform flat top.    Crap Bag Wet Snow.  I’m home instead of LA, so of COURSE this was a Bust.  

[bristolri_wx]

Made the Bristol to Providence track into work between 8:30 to 9:15.  Moderate to heavy snow the entire way.  It's sticking pretty good to grassy areas, but roads are just slushy.  It's been hovering 32 the entire time.  Eyeballing about 4" outside my office.  Don't have a yard stick here.  It super heavy slop, but looks delightful outside.

[H2Otown_WX]

13 hours ago, H2Otown_WX said:

I'll never tell you the UKMET sucks again

Just kidding it's still terrible

[Snowcrazed71]

The wind is starting to crank up outside. Looks blizzard like with the snow coming off the trees

[TalcottWx]

20 minutes ago. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Litchfield and HFD counties with WWA and most towns in those counties have 8-12” already 

[met_fan]

32 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

0.5” ON THE GROUND OUTSIDE OF GRASS OR PLASTIC!!  0.5”!?  And You people have 6”-10”??  

F*** THIS STORM!  In the past 9 days I’ve had to deal with the Chiefs Winning, Mahomes winning a Historic Game WITH an OT coup to boot, Narcissistic Swift & Asshat Kelce taking over the God Dang World seeing unprecedented records and power, my industry has gone So Woke at the Grammys you can’t recognize it, Brandon doesn’t know he’s flipping Alive as President, and now ANOTHER Failed storm like the last 7 “big ones” in a Row here the past 2 years??  

Good lord

[dendrite]

Flurries at home now.

Overperformer. 

[Brian5671]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Litchfield and HFD counties with WWA and most towns in those counties have 8-12” already 

I was surprised they didn't flip it back to a warning

[hammerz_nailz]

9.75

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said:

Looks like Runnaway is cleaning up nicely now, too.  

Tickling 11". What a wild ride over the last 48hrs. 

[CoastalWx]

All snow now. Starting to coat.

[wxsniss]

Box from earlier this morning, still expected snow even to Logan:

8:30 AM Update:

It is apparent that snow moved in faster than all models had
predicted this morning with portions of interior Connecticut
well overperforming compared to previous forecasts (several
reports of 7"+ have were received prior to 8 AM out of Hartford
County).

With temperatures above freezing in the Boston Metro area, we
have yet to see a change to snow in the city as well as along
the immediate coastline. Temperatures should cool over the next
couple of hours allowing precip to switch to snow even at the
airport in Winthrop, but delays in the changeover will impact
how much snow accumulates in the city. As for timing, a
changeover should occur by 16Z for any ares still experiencing
rain.

Dendrites are quite large with this system which will contribute
to some rapid accumulations. Some observers have reported inch
per hour rates over the last hour or two

[H2Otown_WX]

5 minutes ago, SnowlieSnowstormson said:

Just want to give a huge shoutout to @CT Rain for using meteorological knowledge, pointing out upper level conditions as a plus factor last night vs hugging snow maps to at least not overly pare back totals in CT like some of the more amateur folks on Twitter and elsewhere who rolled out like 5 forecasts and overly bought into the modeling whipsaw.

 

 

There's a reason he was already working in like the biggest TV market at age 21

[HIPPYVALLEY]

24 minutes ago, radarman said:

Back edge not far away, but we've had a reasonably snowy couple hours.  Grass almost not poking through.  Congrats to the CT valley peeps south of the border.

Razor sharp cut off because I’m in Northampton and there’s nothing on the ground and it is not precipitating.

[TalcottWx]

7 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Here you go man:

https://weedmaps.com/dispensaries/in/united-states/rhode-island/cumberland
 

He may want to consider skipping directly to Shrooms and/or assisted Ketamine use. If he gets the nasal spray Ketamine, he's one Rainer from ending it. 

[Patrick-02540]

3 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

The wind is starting to crank up outside. Looks blizzard like with the snow coming off the trees

Yeah.  Final band developing over western Litchfield Cty, coming in.  Winds cranking.  

[bristolri_wx]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Exactly. This is why I get so bent out of shape with the snow maps. They're just leading to lazy forecasting. Ultimately, forecasting is a science which requires a great deal of time and effort. Now, I get in today's day and age where everyone is so busy and has so many responsibilities that it's difficult to put that effort in, but we're only hurting ourselves that way. 

Fundamentals are important. Take sports for example, you can have the most talent team, best players, but if you can't execute the fundamentals, you aren't winning in the end. 

When forecasting, the fundamentals should be applied first and always. If one is going to look at snow maps or QPF and see there is a cut-down, the questions needs to be asked as to why that is and whether it makes sense. When looking back at how all guidance was handling the mid-levels, the evolution of the mid-levels, jet enhancement, the QPF cuts should not have made sense. 

I guess though hindsight is 20-20...its always easier said than done in the end, but you can't ignore the fundamentals and forget why fundamentals are important. 

I agree with everything you said 100%, and I don't have met training so I'm not even in much position to take an alternative angle.  That being said, I think even the folks at NCEP and other agencies were probably wondering what was going on with models yesterday afternoon, and by 6PM they had hurricane hunters out doing data readings.  It didn't shock me that @Ginx snewx started posting HRRR runs that were "improving" a few hours later.  Perhaps those flights would have been done anyway for research purposes but there was definitely a period yesterday where something made the models start show something different after several days of consistency.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

20 minutes ago. 

Holy smokes!

[Damage In Tolland]

Hammer!!

https://x.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1757380333836657102?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[Ginx snewx]

So yea this happened   snow blower 1 phone 0

7.5 so far

[HimoorWx]

All snow now. Starting to coat.

Same here, but still 33.8. Roads are just wet. At this point I hope it just stays this way so I don't have to worry about clearing the driveway.

Sent from my SM-A546U using Tapatalk

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

So yea this happened   snow blower 1 phone 0

7.5 so far

Damage!

[LSC97wxnut]

Pretty much all snow.  I'd say 1/2 S, but not accumulating at 35.8*.

[met_fan]

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Razor sharp cut off because I’m in Northampton and there’s nothing on the ground and it is not precipitating.

Yeah…maybe a 1/4” in Easthampton

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

So yea this happened   snow blower 1 phone 0

7.5 so far

Now you can get the iPhone you’ve always wanted!

[NeonPeon]

Half melted snowcone under a bleacher out there. 2 inches on a board, wet heavy slop. After a few runs of sledding later, the kids will be dripping wet.