Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

No, there just is no dynamics like I was just saying. So the .3 of so of qpf here is basically just slop/white rain.

Yeah, the dynamics do suck, I guess it's just an odd look compared to other models that don't have that abrupt east/west clown cutoff at the tip of Long Island.

[weathafella]

19 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

 

He did and was right (apparently).  If I was in my home town in NNJ I’d be happy.

[Briz600]

I think this thing will trend north a bit overnight to 4-8 here. It would be funny if we ended up with less then 1”.

[Torch Tiger]

58 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Time for bed, but hey the HERPES model still looks good!
 

I hope it misses, at least here. Only ~3" or so, we'll survive. Hopefully far SNE gets crushed though, no butt-hurts  

[Torch Tiger]

5 minutes ago, Briz600 said:

I think this thing will trend north a bit overnight to 4-8 here. It would be funny if we ended up with less then 1”.

It'd be more funny if models went bonkers further NW and forecasts went way way too low 

[Torch Tiger]

I see that "arc" on radar, extrapolating that east doesn't look promising NOP

[HIPPYVALLEY]

11 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

I see that "arc" on radar, extrapolating that east doesn't look promising NOP

Upstream radar looks terrible for anyone outside of CT.  Hopefully they can grab a few inches but this one is an exercise in heartache for most of SNE. 

[NotSureWeather]

Pretty big blowup of moisture in southern PA. Don’t really see that modeled anywhere. 

[Spaizzo]

Light flakes have started in Mt Vernon NY. NYC areas are reporting rain and/or sleet… it’s early no?


.

[NotSureWeather]

At least I don’t see that on the HRRR. It’s on the GFS and ICON.

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

Experimental RRFS A looks decent for parts of Connecticut using its own snowfall algorithm.

[78Blizzard]

The 0z Euro at 06z shows temps in the upper 20's.  What a joke.  It's 36F here now.

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

Clear Euro improvement. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Tick north tick north come on baby tick on north...

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[78Blizzard]

Euro did come north a bit, but too little too late.

[weathafella]

5 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

The 0z Euro at 06z shows temps in the upper 20's.  What a joke.  It's 36F here now.

6z was 34 for BOS.  Prog for 12z is 37…lol.

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Tickle 

[joey2002]

Better than 12z… 

Good to see 18z and 00z trend a bit north and more amped at least.

[Torch Tiger]

32 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Upstream radar looks terrible for anyone outside of CT.  Hopefully they can grab a few inches but this one is an exercise in heartache for most of SNE. 

Yeah of course, It would be great for the S coast crew

[ackwaves]

4 hours ago, 8611Blizz said:

At least That old man in Nantucket gets his blizzard.

Im not so sure. No dynamics. Warm temps. Climo. Im only thinking 2” but Im bo expert. 

[Cyclone-68]

I’d rather partly sunny and brisk tomorrow if the best I can do is two lousy inches from this. Might as well go for the record at this point 

[wxsniss]

@NotSureWeatherpointed this out:

Convection (circled below) not really on any models for Tues 6z... up against the northwest wall of dry air, and models have it dissipate as low transfers off Delmarva, but hopefully this translates at least to CT folks

[Torch Tiger]

2 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

@NotSureWeatherpointed this out:

Convection (circled below) not really on any models for Tues 6z... up against the northwest wall of dry air, and models have it dissipate as low transfers off Delmarva, but hopefully this translates at least to CT folks

that looks like bright banding to me

[wxsniss]

35 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

that looks like bright banding to me

Yeah you might be right I'm not sure... the most intense echoes do look narrow and stationary, but surrounding echoes less so and are moving northeast.

In any case, this feels like microdissecting radar hallucinations, but whether or not echoes hit a wall at ~Susquehanna county in northeast PA (HRRRs) or actually reach the northern PA-NY border (GFS) in the next 5 hours will be telling.

[NotSureWeather]

Radar is reasonably different than what is being modeled on the NAM and HRRR. What’s on radar is basically 50-100 miles further north than both models.

[mitchnick]

6z Nam fyp

[wxsniss]

Sizable tick north on 6z NAM

[mitchnick]

Just now, wxsniss said:

Sizable tick north on 6z NAM

3k looks to be similar. Will post it when storm's over.

[CCHurricane]

06z NAM

“Looks like snow is back on the menu boys”

[mitchnick]

6z 3k. Some snow still falling on the cape only at this point.