Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[8611Blizz]

  On 2/13/2024 at 4:21 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

CT and RI are going to get some accumulating snow tomorrow, the rest of us in SNE, outside of Cape Cod, are SOL.

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Yeah I know some models have Boston at about 2" but the dynamics are pretty bad and the temps are garbage.

[WinterWolf]

  On 2/13/2024 at 4:21 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

CT and RI are going to get some accumulating snow tomorrow, the rest of us in SNE, outside of Cape Cod, are SOL.

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Ya if I can shag me 4” tomorrow I’ll consider it a win. This morning I was in the 12-18” area on the NWS snowfall map.  Infuriating. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 2/13/2024 at 4:25 AM, WinterWolf said:

Ya if I can shag me 4” tomorrow I’ll consider it a win. This morning I was in the 12-18” area on the NWS snowfall map.  Infuriating. 

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Ya I feel the same 

[WinterWolf]

  On 2/13/2024 at 4:27 AM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya I feel the same 

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Maddening.  Gotta just choke it down and move on.  Faaak. 

[Ginx snewx]

Interesting movement N mesos. Went from .4 HRRR to .8 in 2 runs still snowing 

[Ginx snewx]

Nice to see qpf going back up here. A 6 to 8 works

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 2/13/2024 at 4:30 AM, Ginx snewx said:

Interesting movement N mesos. Went from .4 HRRR to .8 in 2 runs still snowing 

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Smiling to the end . Hoping In your locale you see solid 6-8 still 

[78Blizzard]

Both the 03 RAP and HRRR show 1"/hr rates here between 10-2, so we could still get 6" here.

[WinterWolf]

  On 2/13/2024 at 4:30 AM, Ginx snewx said:

Interesting movement N mesos. Went from .4 HRRR to .8 in 2 runs still snowing 

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Ya that’s a jump…

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 2/13/2024 at 4:30 AM, Ginx snewx said:

Interesting movement N mesos. Went from .4 HRRR to .8 in 2 runs still snowing 

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Unless that all comes down very heavy, I wouldn’t expect much. All kinds of temp and boundary layer issues. With the sink south, we’ve also lost the dynamics 

[Ginx snewx]

  On 2/13/2024 at 4:34 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Unless that all comes down very heavy, I wouldn’t expect much. All kinds of temp and boundary layer issues. With the sink south, we’ve also lost the dynamics 

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Thanks for the Met lesson Brett.

[DavisStraight]

  On 2/13/2024 at 4:33 AM, Ginx snewx said:

Nice to see qpf going back up here. A 6 to 8 works

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You should do decent, north of you not so much.

[WinterWolf]

  On 2/13/2024 at 4:38 AM, Ginx snewx said:

Thanks for the Met lesson Brett.

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Ryan said that he feels it’s gonna come down pretty good in central and southern CT(Along and south of 84).  I guess we’ll see how this plays out very soon. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 2/13/2024 at 4:38 AM, Ginx snewx said:

Thanks for the Met lesson Brett.

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Here to help.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 2/13/2024 at 4:41 AM, WinterWolf said:

Ryan said that he feels it’s gonna come down pretty good in central and southern CT(Along and south of 84).  I guess we’ll see how this plays out very soon. 

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With .8 qpf in 5 hrs I would say Brett's hypothesis is incorrect 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Ukie got much worse for SE mass /PYm

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

00z UKMET with an interesting solution? Not sure if that's a Pivotal issue or not.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Confluence kills big time on this one

 

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

00z UKMET QPF because I'm pretty sure something broke in the snow algorithm.

[WinterWolf]

  On 2/13/2024 at 4:22 AM, WinterWolf said:

Anthony in NYC said to Jerry on Friday that this wasn’t going to be a Dendrite Jack, due to the confluence being to strong, he was correct.  Little did he know at the time however, that he’d end up getting the Winter Storm Warning in NYC, and Dendrite would get shut out.   Crazy turn of events for so many in SNE. 

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[CT Valley Snowman]

Not really feeling good about things up here 2 miles from the mass border in CT.  Hopefully those further south cash in with at least a decent period of snow.  

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just weaker south shredded all the way out to Nova Scotia QPF was pressed down from prior run 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 2/13/2024 at 4:30 AM, Ginx snewx said:

Interesting movement N mesos. Went from .4 HRRR to .8 in 2 runs still snowing 

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Regardless, terrible model performance at close range on this one.   Hopefully you can pull 4"+ there and good luck to all of the far SNE and NYC peeps.  All way overdue for a pasting.

[DavisStraight]

  On 2/13/2024 at 4:51 AM, CT Valley Snowman said:

Not really feeling good about things up here 2 miles from the mass border in CT.  Hopefully those further south cash in with at least a decent period of snow.  

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I think we get 2-4.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 2/13/2024 at 4:49 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Confluence kills big time on this one

 

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Confluence without a strong high over Quebec or any polar air to speak of.  N stream just didn't show up at the playground for this one.  It was always thread the needle, so fascinating meteorology if nothing else.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Take a big breathe Men, this is a rug pull storm they suck . Life in life don’t whine why this one hurts you harder . It’s not your livelihood on line for the storm . Until garbage spring season arrives we watch models again and push the F on . It’s whether we deal with it. 

[8611Blizz]

He still split Boston with the zones but the south trend continues

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 2/13/2024 at 4:47 AM, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

00z UKMET with an interesting solution? Not sure if that's a Pivotal issue or not.

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No, there just is no dynamics like I was just saying. So the .3 of so of qpf here is basically just slop/white rain.

[The 4 Seasons]

  On 2/13/2024 at 4:49 AM, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

00z UKMET QPF because I'm pretty sure something broke in the snow algorithm.

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interesting, def a more W - E oriented axis of qpf than the 12z which was SW to NE. this run is slightly better for the southern half of CT

[CT Valley Snowman]

  On 2/13/2024 at 4:52 AM, DavisStraight said:

I think we get 2-4.

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Some of the mesos are pretty paltry, especially further west back this way. Hopefully you're right.  Earlier today we were headed to the buffet and now we're just hoping for scraps.