Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya that’s a major outlier 1-1.3” liquid south of 84. Cut back northern edge 

That’s a lot of liquid…GFS not drinking the Euro and Ukie and HRRR cool-aid I guess. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Sn0waddict said:

Gfs is pretty damn good on the south coast. 

The better question is…can you believe it? 

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

00z GFS Clown for the curious. I personally like the way it blesses me with the Monadnock lobe. Praise be the lobe.

[wx_observer]

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY EVENING/...
10 PM Update...

The southward trend continues with 00z NAM, HRRR, WRF-ARW and
WRF-NMM. Lowered accum north of the MA Pike where confidence is
highest in less snowfall. As a result converted some of the
warnings to advisories and dropped the advisory for NW MA. May
have to lower amounts further south but no changes made along
and south of the MA and will await full 00z model suite before
making any changes.

 

[8611Blizz]

I bet 1-3 creeps south by tomorrow morning.

[Sn0waddict]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

The better question is…can you believe it? 

Who knows at this point lol

[wxsniss]

Tomorrow will be 717 days and counting for KBOS ≥ 4"... if we don't end the streak before December 2024, we will be at 1000 days... completely off the charts for records since 1891.

[WinterWolf]

Lol GFS still has a big hit here….4-5 hrs before start time and she’s stubborn still. 

[8611Blizz]

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Who knows at this point lol

Right.  What a fiasco.  Shows over a foot for you. About 8” up this way.  I’m not believing I see 8”.  But you might have a better shot at those numbers. 

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol GFS still has a big hit here….4-5 hrs before start time and she’s stubborn still. 

The GFS has been very consistent over the past 4 days with this storm. It hasn't made a big sudden movements in either direction, similar to how the ECMWF used to be. That's what we would always say about the euro, it doesn't make any big moves inside of D3 or so. Today it's been ticking south but still no major jumps.

[dmcginvt]

9 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

00z GFS Clown for the curious. I personally like the way it blesses me with the Monadnock lobe. Praise be the lobe.

that is an amazing penis?

[Massplow]

7 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

I bet 1-3 creeps south by tomorrow morning.

That’s like what I was saying are these numbers still possible or are they just slowly letting people down/making the next shift deliver the bad news 

[WeatherX]

Looks like start time is around 5am at best in WCT?


.

[NotSureWeather]

8 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Tomorrow will be 717 days and counting for KBOS ≥ 4"... if we don't end the streak before December 2024, we will be at 1000 days... completely off the charts for records since 1891.

Just a guess but I bet they break it with this storm. As crap as it may be.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

The GFS has been very consistent over the past 4 days with this storm. It hasn't made a big sudden movements in either direction, similar to how the ECMWF used to be. That's what we would always say about the euro, it doesn't make any big moves inside of D3 or so. Today it's been ticking south but still no major jumps.

Yes it has, and I remember the comparisons well.  Euro can’t find its way out of a paper bag anymore now. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

The gfs is a nice storm for the cranberry bogs still. I’m sure Ray is filled with excitement for them.

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

3 minutes ago, dmcginvt said:

that is an amazing penis?

I wouldn't say amazing, I mean, it's only an inch... of snow.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

I wouldn't say amazing, I mean, it's only an inch... of snow.

Evidently that’s got nothing on Drake.. 

[bristolri_wx]

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

Not to get anyone's hopes up, but the 03z RAP just took a nice little jump north.

[WinterWolf]

Well Ryan still has 4-8” here…better than nothing.  The higher numbers will be along the shore for sure. If I can pull 4” up this way, I’ll consider it a win. 

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

03z HRRR bumping north as well.

[bristolri_wx]

I mean let’s be honest when the GFS is out to lunch in the other direction against consensus, we usually toss it. In this case it’s still showing much more than anyone else, it could just be behind, unless we see a jog north on the high res meso models or radar changes, it’s probably not happening as depicted on the GFS.

[Henry's Weather]

42 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I remember it. And I was looking/hoping for it to change, cold air never made it.   But imo, this is way worse…2024, and we are under 24 hrs out, and the modeling fails so badly…it’s abysmal.  

Yeah, this one is pretty rough

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

03z HRRR bumping north as well.

The next hr it’ll go south again. 

[Sn0waddict]

Time for bed, but hey the HERPES model still looks good!
 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

If you look at radar, the cutoff of precipitation from Lexington KY to State College PA is razor sharp.  Not what you want to see if you are expecting a large precipitation shield into SNE.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

CT and RI are going to get some accumulating snow tomorrow, the rest of us in SNE, outside of Cape Cod, are SOL.

[WinterWolf]

Anthony in NYC said to Jerry on Friday that this wasn’t going to be a Dendrite Jack, due to the confluence being to strong, he was correct.  Little did he know at the time however, that he’d end up getting the Winter Storm Warning in NYC, and Dendrite would get shut out.   Crazy turn of events for so many in SNE.