Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, cut said:

Not happening yet: https://www.wunderground.com/maps/radar/current/day

 

But there is a lot in Kentucky that seems poised to move into Ohio.

We want to see it between 8-12 tonight. It wouldn’t be happening now. 

[wxsniss]

19 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said:

What are we looking for exactly? Expanding precip further north?

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-OH_RV-comp_radar-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[mostman]

Schools just closed here. Kids might be out riding their bikes. 

[Patrick-02540]

3 minutes ago, cut said:

Not happening yet: https://www.wunderground.com/maps/radar/current/day

 

But there is a lot in Kentucky that seems poised to move into Ohio.

Yeah, that Kentucky stuff will be a clue if it settles west of the border.  As far as I understand.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Can’t help a garbage airmass. 

What is the deal with so many shit airmasses with approaching shortwaves over the past several years? 

[Snowcrazed71]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

What is the deal with so many shit airmasses with approaching shortwaves over the past several years? 

The problem is there's So many shit air misses coming in with the storms ;-)

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

What is the deal with so many shit airmasses with approaching shortwaves over the past several years? 

It’s been warm here the past few years…so that hurts enough.  All the cold has been other side of globe or over the western US/Plains. 
 

But even when we’ve had good airmasses, they haven’t held in with good high pressure. We keep getting bad highs that slide well east. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

What is the deal with so many shit airmasses with approaching shortwaves over the past several years? 

If we get the precip…we will have no issues with getting the snow here. I still think we do ok here in central CT…and who knows how this plays out yet lol? 

[TalcottWx]

49 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

I like Kevin's location. Windham county looks really good. To me the question mark is Litchfield. 

Also, Corey P's location in N RI could be close to ideal. 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

The problem is there's So many shit air misses coming in with the storms ;-)

There has been but ... let's see how this arriving -EPO distributes the temperature anomalies down stream over the continent - this is the deepest EPO mode this season ( as is projected ).  

It's gotten late and we're out of the solar min and into the solar transition season so it's racing a bit against the inevitable but there's time.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s been warm here the past few years…so that hurts enough.  All the cold has been other side of globe or over the western US/Plains. 
 

But even when we’ve had good airmasses, they haven’t held in with good high pressure. We keep getting bad highs that slide well east. 

Yea. Pretty much every snower, as limited as they are, come with marginal thermals. I miss the good ole days when the pac train arrives and drops off dendy’s at 25F.

[TheSnowman]

3 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Also, Corey P's location in N RI could be close to ideal. 

I highly highly HIGHLY doubt that.  

 

I went from 12-15 predictions all over to 6-8 everywhere.  And I’ve only been in a perfect place for 2/7/03, Match of 2019, and the Blizzard of 1978.  Not good odds.  

[ineedsnow]

22z HRRR looks to be bumping north a tad but not sure its enough for anything meaningful 

[George001]

I might bust, I’m not super confident but eh…. I’m sticking to my guns. I am skeptical that the storm will be as dry as some of the latest guidance has it. I believe there will be a blizzard in Boston tomorrow.

[Sn0waddict]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

22z HRRR looks to be bumping north a tad but not sure its enough for anything meaningful 

Ya I kinda think the same looking at it.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

22z HRRR looks to be bumping north a tad but not sure its enough for anything meaningful 

Need more than just bumps at this point.  Heading into nowcast territory.

[Patrick-02540]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Need more than just bumps at this point.  Heading into nowcast territory.

If you toggle 18z and 22z at the same hour, it's a pretty decent bump north.  

[JC-CT]

5 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

I highly highly HIGHLY doubt that.  

 

I went from 12-15 predictions all over to 6-8 everywhere.  And I’ve only been in a perfect place for 2/7/03, Match of 2019, and the Blizzard of 1978.  Not good odds.  

Dont forget march 2013. That was epic for RI

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Need more than just bumps at this point.  Heading into nowcast territory.

I'm more curious to know what caused the models to jump ship this afternoon.. you would think they had great data put in the models the last couple of days 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Need more than just bumps at this point.  Heading into nowcast territory.

Not so much here(we’re still very much in the game), little ticks can mean the difference between a decent storm here, and a crushing.   But for you guys yes.  

[TalcottWx]

4 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

I highly highly HIGHLY doubt that.  

 

I went from 12-15 predictions all over to 6-8 everywhere.  And I’ve only been in a perfect place for 2/7/03, Match of 2019, and the Blizzard of 1978.  Not good odds.  

Any discussion of 12-15" was always too high, IMO. We could end up verifying lollies to that locally but it's impossible to predict. 

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Dont forget march 2013. That was epic for RI

That was epic in CT/MA.  Wasn't that the one with the perpetual RI sucker hole?

[ineedsnow]

I saw the severe weather in the south was further south in the south.. maybe that had something to do with it?

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. Pretty much every snower, as limited as they are, come with marginal thermals. I miss the good ole days when the pac train arrives and drops off dendy’s at 25F.

I mean it doesn’t have to be Arctic. But like Will said, we haven’t held a good high in place. Even with this one, it’s a track that 98/100 times I wouldn’t worry about temps. I feel like I’m beating a dead horse with this, but man it’s frustrating.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

I saw the severe weather in the south was further south in the south.. maybe that had something to do with it?

It may lead to winter in the north being further north in the north.

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said:

If you toggle 18z and 22z at the same hour, it's a pretty decent bump north.  

18z was the flattest run of both rap and hrrr. They’ve come north since then but for the pike region, we want to see one more decent tick of like 10-15 miles to feel confident. 

[JC-CT]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

That was epic in CT/MA.  Wasn't that the one with the perpetual RI sucker hole?

[SouthCoastMA]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Yup, But he knew his stuff, Whether folks wanted to remove there snow goggles or not, His last screen name was Clinch Leatherwood, Him and i PM'd often and i still have them in my inbox..........

same here..used to message him back and forth about storms since we lived relatively close

[Patrick-02540]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z was the flattest run of both rap and hrrr. They’ve come north since then but for the pike region, we want to see one more decent tick of like 10-15 miles to feel confident. 

Yeah, it was more a precip shield bump north at that hour.  Danbury to the Mass border.  

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I mean it doesn’t have to be Arctic. But like Will said, we haven’t held a good high in place. Even with this one, it’s a track that 98/100 times I wouldn’t worry about temps. I feel like I’m beating a dead horse with this, but man it’s frustrating.

The funny part is like even 5 years ago we were saying “remember we used to get more paste jobs?”