Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

lol that’s not how I remember Messenger shuffles up here.  They go ESE each run to go time, a tiny bit at a time.  Like a torture you can’t avoid .

When Messenger was posting bouy observations and every RAP run each hour sliding away in the last 6 hours before an event.

Messenger shuffle is a move to the south in the last 24hrs according to Scott (Messenger) RIP, His best phrase was he would like to bang the Ruc model as that was his model choice.

[Spanks45]

As dumb as it may sound...I started noticing early on, 6z this morning, my old hometown of Lancaster PA started ramping up on the clown maps. They were virtual nada up until that point. Knew something was up....hope we stop the trend and start bouncing north.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

The messenger shuffle is apparently any direction you need these days.

[weathafella]

I just remember all these systems slipping SE but making a correction at the last minute.  Maybe I’m misremembering…

[Amped]

7 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said:

21z HRRR looks North.

Some regression to the mean kicking in.  Givin the history of these kinds of events its never a good idea to completely buy into the south trend.  The furthest south model run within 48hrs of the storm is much more likely to end up the laughing stock than it is to actually verify.

[TalcottWx]

I like Kevin's location. Windham county looks really good. To me the question mark is Litchfield. 

[Southshorewx]

9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Messenger shuffle is a move to the south in the last 24hrs according to Scott (Messenger) RIP, His best phrase was he would like to bang the Ruc model as that was his model choice.

Everyone gave him such a hard time about the ruc. It really looked like someone drew it with a crayon.  People gave him a hard time for his coast guard model "because the boy scout model wasn't high def enough"   haha. 

[wx_observer]

Fairly brutal BOX update...since I didn't see it posted here

Well, I`ll get right to the point with this update, there`s been a
big change to the forecast this afternoon based on a remarkably late
but notable trend in the 12z/18z guidance which now keeps the bulk
of the snow centered over the south coast of southern New England.
This change is due not only to a southern shift in the track of the
low but also a notable shift in the 500 mb trough; with a slower and
less amplified solution and the northern and southern stream energy
failing to phase/strengthen as they pass through the region. This
shift has notably moved the zone of mid level frontogenesis to the
south, and since we typically see the best forcing/banding to the
northwest of the maxima this places southeast MA/Cape Cod and
southern RI in the bullseye. BUFKIT soundings do indicate decent
omega (forcing for lift) within the dendritic snow growth zone
further north into MA, so we should still see some decent snowfall
there, but the maxima looks to be south and east. While this is
remarkably late in the game for such a relatively big shift, nearly
all of the 12Z guidance including the 12Z ECMWF, 18Z NAM, 18Z HRRR
and more show it. The new forecast calls for a swath of 6 to 10
inches across southeast MA/RI with a pretty tight gradient to the
north down to potentially nothing in far northwest MA. Uncertainty
remains high, however, given marginal temperatures at onset (though
good dynamics should help cool the column to overcome this) and
potential for a shift back north with overnight guidance. This
southern shift brings slightly cooler air which may help mitigate
snow loading risk a bit, but a wet, and rather heavy snow continues
to be expected. Blizzard conditions are possible, especially on the
outer Cape where the strongest winds are expected, with gusts has
high as 55 mph possible. Elsewhere winds will be gusty, blowing 30-
40 mph over southeast MA and along the immediate coasts of MA and
RI. The Winter Storm Warning has been expanded into Cape Cod and the
islands while it has been downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory
for western and north central MA.

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, Southshorewx said:

Everyone gave him such a hard time about the ruc. It really looked like someone drew it with a crayon.  People gave him a hard time for his coast guard model "because the boys out model wasn't high def enough"   haha. 

Yup, But he knew his stuff, Whether folks wanted to remove there snow goggles or not, His last screen name was Clinch Leatherwood, Him and i PM'd often and i still have them in my inbox..........

[Patrick-02540]

Need to start paying attention to the Ohio radar.  

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Even looking at the 19z/20z HRRR there's a great banding/snow growth signal through most of CT up through boston. 

Your fingertips to the Good Lord above ears .

[Greg]

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said:

Need to start paying attention to the Ohio radar.  

 

[NotSureWeather]

13 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said:

Need to start paying attention to the Ohio radar.  

What are we looking for exactly? Expanding precip further north?

[weathafella]

12 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yup, But he knew his stuff, Whether folks wanted to remove there snow goggles or not, His last screen name was Clinch Leatherwood, Him and i PM'd often and i still have them in my inbox..........

I actually got to have dinner with him following a bet one of us won-can't remember who...lol.  We were trying to bring in one of the big snows hitting DC during the 2009-10 winter.  He kept showing me the nam on his phone but alas it was not to be.   I had known him from Scott Simard on ne.weather, Scottne on irc, messenger and then Clinch Leatherwood here (another name too maybe?).  

[HoarfrostHubb]

15 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yup, But he knew his stuff, Whether folks wanted to remove there snow goggles or not, His last screen name was Clinch Leatherwood, Him and i PM'd often and i still have them in my inbox..........

Yes. He definitely knew his stuff.  He was a dose of harsh reality at times. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

10 minutes ago, Greg said:

When you look at the loop it absolutely slingshots ENE so the window for warning snows is short.  CT is obviously in the best spot for a few hours of +SN.  

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, NotSureWeather said:

What are we looking for exactly? Expanding precip further north?

Will said you want to see solid precip well back into Ohio vs straddling the PA/ WV/OH line. The aggressive snow models here had that and the SE whiffs didn’t get snow “back to Ohio”. 

[ineedsnow]

it would be hilarious  to see this bump back north the last minute after taking things down.. I don't expect it at all but it would be amusing 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Going to be lots of hallucinations of people thinking this is coming north.

[NeonPeon]

35 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said:

I'd guess they aren't too happy right about now.

When the discussion begins...

Well, ....

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Going to be lots of hallucinations of people thinking this is coming north.

You're in the crosshairs for a local jackpot, enjoy. 

[WeatherX]

Will said you want to see solid precip well back into Ohio vs straddling the PA/ WV/OH line. The aggressive snow models here had that and the SE whiffs didn’t get snow “back to Ohio”. 

Were there any pre-type bands out ahead of the initial fronto band if that Ohio band formed?


.

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Will said you want to see solid precip well back into Ohio vs straddling the PA/ WV/OH line. The aggressive snow models here had that and the SE whiffs didn’t get snow “back to Ohio”. 

No you want to see solid precip creeping into the border counties of Ohio with WV. Doesn’t even need to be well into the state, but if it is, then we’re def getting destroyed. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

You're in the crosshairs for a local jackpot, enjoy. 

And I’m the Debbie 

[TalcottWx]

The 7h maps look perfect to the pike on south

[wxsniss]

12 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I actually got to have dinner with him following a bet one of us won-can't remember who...lol.  We were trying to bring in one of the big snows hitting DC during the 2009-10 winter.  He kept showing me the nam on his phone but alas it was not to be.   I had known him from Scott Simard on ne.weather, Scottne on irc, messenger and then Clinch Leatherwood here (another name too maybe?).  

also "Rollo Tomasi"... felt like one of my closest friends that I've never met in real life

[cut]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No you want to see solid precip creeping into the border counties of Ohio with WV. Doesn’t even need to be well into the state, but if it is, then we’re def getting destroyed. 

Not happening yet: https://www.wunderground.com/maps/radar/current/day

 

But there is a lot in Kentucky that seems poised to move into Ohio.

[NotSureWeather]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

And I’m the Debbie 

Maybe you aren’t a Debbie but you definitely are beating the shit out of this poor horse.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, NotSureWeather said:

Maybe you aren’t a Debbie but you definitely are beating the shit out of this poor horse.

Can’t help a garbage airmass.