Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[Typhoon Tip]

I think I see why the Euro is collapsing S over time ...

The last 24 hrs have shown a clockwise rotation of the N/stream S/W relative to the position(s) of the S/stream system.

This is  a pull back on the amt of phasing, ...however subtle it was crucial before, and it is causing a tendency to weaken the S/stream due to more destructive vs constructive interference with the imposition the N/stream assertion in these latter runs.

The other runs also show this slight reduction ( clockwise rotation evidence by toggling the intervals across successive runs) but for some reason, the foreign model type are more sensitive. ... or perhaps just more aggressive in doing so - again ... it may be too subtle to be very readily coherent. 

This is what it means to live by threading needle and dying by it...  

Feel pretty confident in the why - I don't have much confidence over whether this is the way reality ultimately plays out.  It's almost like we're catching chaos with it's pants down/in the act -

[Brian5671]

Wonder how fast forecasts catch up -most of the public thinks a monster is coming....school supers with the finger on the cancel button.....no school for white rain lol.

[ariof]

7 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

we need a last minute jump north or there's going to be a lot of toaster baths, what a difference 12 hours has been since I last checked, wtf...ALY not too concerned about my area and immediate Berks, but has taken amounts way back points NW, stating big gradient as this now looks to pass SE of the BM

Toasters just sold out across eastern New England.

[Zeus]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm not even sure what I want to see from the 18z NAM. I'm wondering if its just better off to have it join the Euro/Ukie and other 1z guidance versus holding steady. If the NAM holds serve...and lets say the GFS does too then WTF. It's probably doubtful that happens though.

The GFS holding serve feels unlikely. If you look at the snowfall totals for the event across the last 6 runs, it's been slipping south with each consecutive run. There's been no real "hold" run for six in a row.

[wxeyeNH]

A friend of mine runs a large landscape/plowing company in Metrowest Boston.  He has 60 guys coming in at 7am.  It's a big decision that has to be made this evening.  I heard Boston already called off school?  I have not been following this storm too closely as it has always been pretty much a whiff up here but wow.  What a sh...ow if this south trend were to continue

[Brian5671]

Just now, Zeus said:

The GFS holding serve feels unlikely. If you look at the snowfall totals for the event across the last 6 runs, it's been slipping south with each consecutive run. There's been no real "hold" run for six in a row.

yeah they are just slipping south at a slower rate-the Euro lurched south at 6z

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

Am going to start a huge fight with wife when she gets home . If I’m angry. She’s angry .  I am so irritated . It’s indescribable. 

We understand your pain but please don't keep it bottled in, let it out and drink....drink a bunch tonight and smash stuff in the garage. 

[ariof]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don't think it will be all that interesting...it's going to go way south because the 18z RAP/HRRR already did that....the 18z cycles clearly have data ingested that say this is going to be way south. The more interesting part of me is going to be if we see the mesos try and tick back N on the post-18z runs.

Yeah almost more interesting is that the Euro caught up to this at 12Z while the mesos were still very bullish at 12Z. Theoretically they were using the same data there, too.

[Ginx snewx]

13 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Might want to take off the weenie goggles.. You need a new prescription ..

Ok what's your call weatherman. I say you get 6 to 8. Put up or shut up with the weenie goggles BS. You are like an old grannie

[NoCORH4L]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

things canceling here already wow are people in for a shock 

Lol, our area will be a dusting at this point. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

Am going to start a huge fight with wife when she gets home . If I’m angry. She’s angry .  I am so irritated . It’s indescribable. 

We shouldn’t let this stuff get to us but I understand what you’re feeling. 
I can do a shoulder shrug because I’ve been out of the heavy snowfall party for a bit but CT is getting the cosmic porking if this somehow misses. 

[DFCIAF]

Boston has called off school and declared a snow emergency. First time in two years we've had a snow emergency in the city. They did call school once last year but it was for the extreme cold. 

[ariof]

BOX is on it

 

 

[CT Rain]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Wonder how fast forecasts catch up -most of the public thinks a monster is coming....school supers with the finger on the cancel button.....no school for white rain lol.

I think it still looks pretty good for you guys and most of S CT

[mahk_webstah]

36 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Just looking at the water vapor, I think the southern solutions are wrong from the position of the NS, it is digging a bit already

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

I think you are fairly new to the board?  And a great contributor.  I am looking forward to the radar and water vapor loop hallucinations!  Its gonna be a ride the next 20 hours or so.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

I think it still looks pretty good for you guys and most of S Ct

Weenie goggles... those in Mass are the ones who are Lucied right now. Old Seeless is in full.panic mode.

[JoeSnowBOS]

All Boston meteos all preparing changed forecasts….they will have lots to talk about on evening news cycle….wow simply amazing


.

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I think it still looks pretty good for you guys and most of S CT

Just need the shifts to stop-it's really I-84 now

[78Blizzard]

25 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

EPS

The Cape is waiting for the apologies for being dumped on yesterday when claiming to be in the jack.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, ariof said:

Yeah almost more interesting is that the Euro caught up to this at 12Z while the mesos were still very bullish at 12Z. Theoretically they were using the same data there, too.

Euro uses more up-to-date data than the earlier 12z runs....part of its data assimilation process is that it can use ground truth to "Check" some of the 2z ingest. I'm not a total expert on the data assimilation for NWP guidance, but I do remember reading that was an advantage the Euro had several years ago.

[Ginx snewx]

18 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

 

 

 

Steve doing his best to hold....

 

17 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

denial is the first stage of grief

 

15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You just have to accept it and laugh it off. Just one of those stretches where nothing goes right. 

You have to understand location of posters. We shall see what shakes out 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Weenie goggles... those in Mass are the ones who are Lucied right now. Old Seeless is in full.panic mode.

I think we may be F’d HFD north . Like 50/50 of total whiff 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I think we may be F’d HFD north 

Could be but old Sey-Mour isnt

[tavwtby]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I think we may be F’d HFD north 

12-18 to 2-4 in 12 hours...wow...who knows, maybe get a lucky mid-level band that puts some rates, but garbage antecedent airmass and now this? it's amazing

[weathafella]

I can’t help but find this whole psychodrama dark comedy.  Keep it coming!

[Prismshine Productions]

NAM following suit through h9

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[HoarfrostHubb]

Hey!  My kids can still have Ski Club it appears.  Not sure what they will be skiing on...

[ORH_wxman]

If you want to follow something definitive upstream that will tell us whether the latest southern guidance is more correct, look at the radar along the Ohio River in SE Ohio tonight between 8pm-midnight....almost all of the guidance that crushes SNE gets good precip just over the Ohio river into the border counties of SE Ohio....the crappy runs keep it in West Virginia and basically completely whiff those Ohio counties. It ends up making a big difference downstream later on for us as the difference gets magnified....

 

 

 

[powderfreak]

18z HRRR crushes NYC.

What a system for modeling.

[Greg]

15 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Seriously?? You think they update maps that fast? That map has been up since early this A.M. They would have no reason to change it until they see more of a trend.

The trends have been obvious even before 5AM