Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[Greg]

1 minute ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

Just like some of those storms in the 80s lol 40 years later and although forecasting abilities have gotten so much better this just goes to show that they are far from perfect.

I could go back to the 1970's and say the same thing. Even today the models with their algorithms still can have a very tough time sort out all the variables that can happen mother nature. She is and perhaps always will be in charge of the final outcome.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You will be fine. Christ you were worried yesterday about being it too far North 

 

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Cmon

 

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Good lord. What a disaster. 

 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

This is a fooking disaster.

Steve doing his best to hold....

[CoastalWx]

You can see the HRRR and lack of dynamics when it's rain at BOS and snow at MVY.

[Brian5671]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

 

 

 

Steve doing his best to hold....

denial is the first stage of grief

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

On 2/11/2024 at 2:24 PM, CoastalWx said:

Starting to get a little movement in pants after 2 years of flaccidity.

Is everything motionless down there now?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, DJln491 said:

Box not budging, yet

 

 

It will change with the 4 PM update.

[Damage In Tolland]

Folks do realize that this has fair chance of a total whiff now . We ate one cycle away from that. 

[tavwtby]

we need a last minute jump north or there's going to be a lot of toaster baths, what a difference 12 hours has been since I last checked, wtf...ALY not too concerned about my area and immediate Berks, but has taken amounts way back points NW, stating big gradient as this now looks to pass SE of the BM

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

7 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The irony is not lost on me that almost every event in the last two years has come just far enough north to screw people and this one way to the same in the opposite direction. Unreal 

This seems relevant now.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

denial is the first stage of grief

The horse left the barn.  

[JoeSnowBOS]

Box not budging, yet
 
 

Time to budge. It’s becoming very clear this is a nothing burger


.

[Damage In Tolland]

I am distraught. Inconsolable. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

denial is the first stage of grief

You just have to accept it and laugh it off. Just one of those stretches where nothing goes right. 

[Greg]

3 minutes ago, DJln491 said:

Box not budging, yet

 

 

That is highly unusual for them to stay stern and firm. like that. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I am distraught. Inconsolable. 

There’s always Beer.  
 

[Brian5671]

THE NAM will be interesting...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I am distraught. Inconsolable. 

Grab the closest beer you can find and do it now!

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

2 minutes ago, Greg said:

I could go back to the 1970's and say the same thing. Even today the models with their algorithms still can have a very tough time sort out all the variables that can happen mother nature. She is and perhaps always will be in charge of the final outcome.

Absolutely this. I doubt we will ever be able to get it right 100% of the time, although I do agree that if the Euro verifies this would be the biggest bust in many years. Maybe since Feb 13, 2008? It's rare for them to get it this wrong this close to the event but this goes to show that it can happen.

[WeatherWilly]

NAM will go south, question is how much. Best we can hope for is it doesn't completely jump ship and these other models tick back north. 

[DJln491]

big hit for Jersey, NYC and LI on the hrrr

[Heisy]

the 18z HRRR is already a solid 30 miles south of the 15z run at 14 hours.

Imagine the NWS offices in my region. I live in Bensalem just NE of Philly. I have no clue what to expect here. Wild models


.

[UnitedWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I am distraught. Inconsolable. 

[WeatherX]

That is highly unusual for them to stay stern and firm. like that. 

They actually have to account for life and property. I’m sure they’re aware of today’s trend and will update accordingly.


.

[weatherwiz]

I'm not even sure what I want to see from the 18z NAM. I'm wondering if its just better off to have it join the Euro/Ukie and other 1z guidance versus holding steady. If the NAM holds serve...and lets say the GFS does too then WTF. It's probably doubtful that happens though.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

THE NAM will be interesting...

I don't think it will be all that interesting...it's going to go way south because the 18z RAP/HRRR already did that....the 18z cycles clearly have data ingested that say this is going to be way south. The more interesting part of me is going to be if we see the mesos try and tick back N on the post-18z runs.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

There’s always Beer.  
 

 

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Grab the closest beer you can find and do it now!

Am going to start a huge fight with wife when she gets home . If I’m angry. She’s angry .  I am so irritated . It’s indescribable. 

[tunafish]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I am distraught. Inconsolable. 

Seems like all those "Has dryslot been posting?" posts were bad for karma.  

[UnitedWx]

3 minutes ago, Greg said:

That is highly unusual for them to stay stern and firm. like that. 

Seriously?? You think they update maps that fast? That map has been up since early this A.M. They would have no reason to change it until they see more of a trend.

[CoastalWx]

I noticed a small change at H5 is really have an effect on the precip shield. The low MSLP itself didn't shift 80 miles or something like that.

[NotSureWeather]

My 6 month sobriety being tested by a weather model. How fragile things can be. 

 

Think we got until 0z to see a change. If it doesn't at least stop going south think almost everyone will be screwed.