Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well we were also playing Atari back then and listening to weather radios. Technology and modeling have advanced 

Higher resolution can be prone to smaller nuances that lead to higher degrees of chaos too.

[H2Otown_WX]

46 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said:

Eversource just said hello. Third time in a month maybe this time it will be warranted.

Your username has never been more relevant

[Zeus]

Oh, I don't know. I think this could work out fine.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

I don't remember the dates, but there were multiple times I was so confident that school was going to be cancelled that I refused to do my homework and went to bed too late....crack the curtains, only to see the grass still showing and only flurries falling from the sky. Hated those storms....

I have several awful memories like that from the 80s as well. I did my homework though. 

[H2Otown_WX]

26 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Wonder what the NWS is thinking right now 

Probably have a dart board setup with different accumulation ranges

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Higher resolution can be prone to smaller nuances that lead to higher degrees of chaos too.

This type of model performance this close to the event is almost unheard of in the past 5-10 years...even 15 years ago it was not common.

[MJO812]

Eps is meh

[MJO812]

Eps south of 6z

[cut]

12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

One of those was brutal for CNJ. I think Feb 87. Expected 12-18” the night before, schools closed (which was not an easy feat back then) and we woke to flurries while the jersey shore cashed in. 

I went to see Platoon with a couple friends the night before, expecting to be able to not worry about getting up early the next day - well .... the wake up sucked - flurries and filtered sun .... AND SCHOOL!!!!!

[Sn0waddict]

This is probably my fault. I just went out to get gas for the snowblower, and I come back to see the EURO/EPS. Woof.

[Spaizzo]

I went to see Platoon with a couple friends the night before, expecting to be able to not worry about getting up early the next day - well .... the wake up sucked - flurries and filtered sun .... AND SCHOOL!!!!!

Meanwhile some schools are already cancelled for tomorrow now here in CT .


.

[Heisy]

This type of model performance this close to the event is almost unheard of in the past 5-10 years...even 15 years ago it was not common.

Was gonna post this earlier, I’ve been around 30 years. This is in the top 3 of the craziest model trends at this range. Behind Boxing Day and Jan 2000


.

[MJO812]

The lows now exit near Deleware 

 

[H2Otown_WX]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps south of 6z

Stay safe

[cut]

Just now, Sn0waddict said:

This is probably my fault. I just went out to get gas for the snowblower, and I come back to see the EURO/EPS. Woof.

I was just getting ready to start mine to make sure it runs!! Of course if it doesn't I can't do anything at this short lead.

[SouthCoastMA]

Do the different model suites ingest different data sets..i.e. American vs UK vs Euro, or do they all use the same data inputs? Not sure if that made sense

[moneypitmike]

My work just sent out a “we’ll notify you this evening” message.  Kicking the can.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

This type of model performance this close to the event is almost unheard of in the past 5-10 years...even 15 years ago it was not common.

Especially not from the best scoring models. 
 

back of my mind though, the ukie being weak sauce for days was a tiny caution flag though being on it’s own it was reasonable to discard. 

[nutmegfriar]

It's difficult to watch some of you folks go through this messy divorce with the Euro.

[FXWX]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I have several awful memories like that from the 80s as well. I did my homework though. 

Cape districts have announced... I'm in the process of telling everyone to not do anything... If 18z runs follow euro trend then we are cooked... Not sure they will..

 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Heisy said:

Was gonna post this earlier, I’ve been around 30 years. This is in the top 3 of the craziest model trends at this range. Behind Boxing Day and Jan 2000


.

1/27/11 was similar up here (down by you, it was always going to be a big storm)....models went from a huge hit around 48h out to almost a total whiff 24h out but then in the final 12 hours, they blitzed back NW....at first, the old RUC had us getting crushed at 12-18 hours out, but we sort of discounted it as RUC amped bias beyond 6 hours, but then it kept showing it and finally the 18z NAM came in and jumped way NW. Most of SNE got like 12-18" from that one

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps south of 6z

Congrats dude. Enjoy it in your cruisah.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Stay safe

It's slipping away from here but it's wrong .

[WxUSAF]

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is one of the worst modeled systems i can remember in the past 10-15 years. Guidance has been really bad with this. Reminds me a little of the 1/27/11 event in that respect, but that one actually started coming back in the final 12 hours....this one better reverse course soon if it wants to match that progression.

Not sure what all your perspectives may be, but one of my takeaways for this entire winter has been that the northern stream has been way more involved than I expected. With a strong Nino I was figuring we’d have some number of big honking southern lows and the only question would be how cold it was and where. But for the most part the southern lows have gotten bullied around and that looks to continue the next 7-14 days with our previously classic Nino pattern. 

[Patrick-02540]

Eversource and Spectrum still think it's a good hit!

[MJO812]

Sref is still nice for everyone

[tomcatct]

Today around 6am when I let my lab out, for the first time all winter the birds were chirping. 

Not scientific,  but I would have guessed spring is close. 

So it's not going to surprise me if this thing wiffs.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Cape districts have announced... I'm in the process of telling everyone to not do anything... If 18z runs follow euro trend then we are cooked... Not sure they will..

 

Good call. We may even need to wait until the snow or rain is at the NY/CT border lol…the way this is going. 

[SouthCoastMA]

 

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Sref is still nice for everyone

Oh thank goodness

[Greg]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's slipping away from here but it's wrong .

Not so sure about that. It's tough to ignore its physics. It's a significant model with support from other models around it.